The 2022 season is about to draw to a close with Super Bowl LVII. On paper this could not be better. The two No. 1 seed from their respective conferences and perhaps the two most dominant offenses in football right now.
What are the keys to victory for each team? Will the Chiefs win their second Super Bowl of the Mahomes era? Or does Jalen Hurts take the Lombardi trophy back to Philly? Our team of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, Jack Brentnall, and William Lane answer all of this and more.
The Chiefs’ offense against the Eagles’ defense is a battle of two elite units. What do you think the Chiefs need to do to gain the upper hand?
Kev: An obvious statement which I’m sure we’ll all state is keep Mahomes clean. When pressured he’s shown Houdini-style escapism from the pocket and I’m sure this game will be no different. The Eagles pass rush will get their opportunities and it’s how Mahomes can distribute that ball to nullify and force Jonathan Gannon to change his approach and coverage.
I expect both Jerick McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco to be involved early in the passing game. I think isolating the Eagles linebackers with shiftier players in the open field could prove problematic and open up the middle of the field for Kelce.
We are of course assuming Mahomes ankle is completely fine. Even if he’s moving well he won’t want to take another knock on it so he needs to take the sack on the bad play and not try too hard to make a play out of nothing. A fine balance when this is his greatest strength.
Tayyib: Philadelphia defenders Darius Slay, James Bradberry, Avonte Maddox, and CJ Gardner-Johnson, will fancy their matchup against Kansas City’s three wideouts. I think in that small matchup, the Eagles will back themselves to win. Opposing teams played man coverage against the Chiefs at the third highest rate this season. Their wideout group is no longer a fear factor. Football can be overcomplicated. In this instance, the Eagles’ defensive backs are better than Kansas City’s wideouts.
The big wildcard is Travis Kelce. Two years ago, the Buccaneers plastered and covered Kelce brilliantly. Lavonte David and Tampa’s athletic center-field defenders made life impossible for Kelce. Do the Eagles have a player that can cover Kelce? Probably not. Will they double Kelce and force Mahomes to look elsewhere? Potentially. But that is not fool proof. Kelce is nearly uncoverable right now. If the Chiefs are to get on top, the big tight end will hold the key.
William: If the Chiefs want to increase their odds to win the Lombardi, then they need to let Mahomes cook. Mahomes was running for his life the last time they were in this position, and that cannot happen on Sunday. Letting Mahomes air it out early also opens up the run game, getting Isaiah Pacheco going early. I believe that this Chiefs offense is at its best when Pacheco is more involved/ I would love to see him, especially in the red zone as he runs strongly and can be difficult for defenders to bring down. It won’t be easy against this Eagles front that will look to overwhelm Mahomes and the Chiefs’ backfield though.
Jack: They need to do exactly what they failed to do the last time they were in the Super Bowl – protect Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes excels out of structure, but the backbone of the Chiefs’ offense is the work he does from the pocket. When they don’t have that to call upon, their lives are infinitely harder. That’s going to be particularly true in this one considering that Mahomes is still recovering from his ankle injury and is unlikely to be able to extend plays as much as he might want to. Keeping their quarterback clean won’t be easy against this relentless Eagles front, but they need to do it to keep their hopes alive.
The Eagles will be looking to do what very few teams have been able to manage over recent years – stop Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. What do you think they need to do to make that happen?
Kev: The Eagles’ pass rush has been formidable all year, ranking third all-time with 78 regular season sacks. The fact four different players got into double figures tells you everything you need to know. The Chiefs’ offensive line can’t concentrate on any one player from those opposite them. It’s difficult to know if they will play with more discipline and contain the pocket or stick with what they know and create pressure continually forcing the Chiefs into unmanageable situations on third down.
We know Mahomes loves his favourite target in Kelce, and Smith-Schuster is also a bustling presence in the middle of the field. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles crowd that area, mixing up blitz packages with identical looks and dropping eight into coverage. This may then force the Chiefs to beat the secondary on the outside. Valdez-Scantling may prove pivotal in forcing the opposing defense to honour the deep ball.
Tayyib: I don’t think any team is ever going to totally ‘stop’ Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs offense. However, Philly can limit Kansas City’s offense by marginalizing them out of the game. With the best offensive line in the NFL and a slew of talented runners, the Eagles have an opportunity to dictate the game’s pace. The Eagles have racked up over 1,000 rushing yards in a spread formation, while Jalen Hurts is second in RYOE on inside zone runs. In the second half of the NFC Championship game, Philadelphia’s bruising running game saw the game out. With an offensive line that good, the Eagles will have chances to get the run game going. Long, punishing drives ending with points will freeze the Chiefs out. If Philadelphia can win time of possession and limit the number of offensive Kansas City plays, they could slow down Mahomes and company.
William: The Eagles will need to limit splash plays and keep Mahomes in check, making him use his legs instead of his arm. Mahomes can be sneaky outside of the pocket and isn’t afraid to take off, and in short yardage situations that could come back to haunt you. So keep him in check and get to him quick. Last time the Chiefs were here their offensive line crumbled. The Eagles will have to replicate just that. Keep Mahomes uncomfortable and make him work for it.
Jack: Mahomes and the Chiefs are an offensive juggernaut. You aren’t going to be able to stop them, so you need to do the next best thing – slow them down. The best way to do just that is to limit their explosive plays. It won’t come as any surprise that the Chiefs lead the NFL with 73 plays of 20+ yards this season. That’s 10 more than the second placed Eagles. Creating those big plays is a big part of what makes this offense tick. If Philadelphia can at least prevent Mahomes from taking these killshots then they will give their own offense a chance to compete.
Let’s switch to the other side of the matchup. The Eagles offense has been formidable all year under Jalen Hurts. What are their keys to victory against this Chiefs defense?
Kev: I don’t think the Eagles will come into this game with any difference in approach. Hurts will have between 5-10 designed runs. They’ll look to control the game and keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense on the sidelines. Look for some early short passes to A.J. Brown getting the ball in the hands of their best players. The Super Bowl sometimes brings out an unlikely hero and a player like Kenneth Gainwell could be the X-Factor. He’s always been a talented playmaker but has also been a reliable runner between the tackles on fairly limited opportunities down the stretch.
Tayyib: Kansas City’s defense might be an underrated element going into this game. While they don’t boast a ton of star names, Steve Spagnuolo has them playing to a tough, intelligent standard. I don’t envisage the Eagles changing much. They’ll use their stable of backs to win on early downs and take shot plays to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith where possible. These wideouts will be key in this game; Jalen Hurts has more passing yards on tight-window throws than any other quarterback this season. Brown and Smith are excellent at the catch point, and their catch radius is top-notch. They will hold the key for Philadelphia. It’s a given Philly will run the ball, but if Brown and Smith win their matchups, Philly becomes much more dangerous. If the Eagles match an explosive passing game alongside a brutally diverse run game, it will become challenging for Kansas City.
William: Slow and steady wins the race in this one. Keep Mahomes off the field. Use that run-first offense to your advantage and eat up that clock. This will open up the pass game as well, as somebody will have to account for the threat Hurts poses as a runner. This Eagles offensive line is the best thing that they have got going for them, so I think this will be won in the trenches. If you can keep the Chiefs defense guessing with that backfield then you should be able to walk away with another Lombardi for the people of Philly. The Eagles offense can be just as explosive as the Chiefs so splash plays are to still be expected.
Jack: The Chiefs have actually been very good in coverage down the stretch, ranking ninth in passing DVOA since Week 9. Their weak spot is actually their run defense, where they rank 22nd in the same period. That will be music to the ears of Eagles fans everywhere! Philadelphia’s success this season has been built on their ability to run the football, so ensuring they can do so here will be essential. Not only does it target the Chiefs’ main weakness, but it also lightens the load on Jalen Hurts in the biggest game of his young career.
The Chiefs defense will have their work cut out to stop Philadelphia in this one. If there is a route to success, how do they find it?
Kev: Winning the trenches battle along the defensive line is key for me. The Eagles probably have the best offensive line in the league, however the Chiefs do have the ability to create pressure up the middle and especially on the right side with Frank Clark and Chris Jones. As I’ve said above, the Eagles will use Hurts’ mobility but on the occasion he needs to play in the structure of the offense, it’s key the Chiefs get some push into his lap and try and force him into some errors.
I think it’s critical the Chiefs do force some stalled drives as I just don’t think they can live with the Eagles in a long possession game taking into account Philadephia’s pass rush.
Tayyib: Chris Jones needs the game of his life! He is the defensive star of this team, and he must disrupt Philadelphia’s run game and create internal pressure. If he can force double teams and push Philadelphia into a stretch running game, the Chiefs may have a shot at restricting the Philly run game. The Eagles’ entire offense is built off of winning with the run game on early downs. The Chiefs cannot let Philadelphia average 4.5 yards per carry. Otherwise, everything else will open up on Nick Sirianni’s play sheet.
Coverage-wise, it will come down to execution. The Chiefs played a ton of split-safety coverages this season. Jalen Hurts was fourth in EPA against split-safety defenses and second in Next-Gen Passing score. For the Chiefs to stifle Philadelphia’s passing game, they need to take the air out of the run game. Steve Spagnuolo’s finest 60 minutes occurred in this stadium when his front seven silenced New England’s run game. They won by forcing Tom Brady into third-and-longs and out-working Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The formula is the same.
William: Jalen Hurts has improved significantly against the blitz, simply because he has seen a lot of it this season. As the year went on teams became more cautious with the blitz, but I do not think that is wise. As great as Hurts has been all season, he is still young. You therefore want your defense to get in his face and make him work for any extra yards. Limit splash plays and make him look for his short yardage guys. That will be the Chiefs’ key to victory.
Jack: The Chiefs need to figure out a way to clog the throwing lanes across the middle of the field. The Eagles love to run quick passing concepts and RPOs over the middle. Jalen Hurts actually ranks third in the NFL this season in DYAR and second in DVOA on passes over the middle of the field. The Chiefs, by contrast, rank 29th in DVOA on throws over the middle of the field. Tightening this up and forcing Hurts to win consistently outside the numbers will help this Chiefs unit to victory.
Finally, let’s have your picks! Who is winning Super Bowl LVII? And what do you think the final score will end up being?
Kev: I think the Eagles have the best game day roster but the Chiefs have the best quarterback and arguably the most dangerous offensive weapon. How many teams have tried and failed to keep Travis Kelce under wraps!?!?. This is a difficult game to predict and it has the potential to be an all-time great. I’ll take the Eagles in a final possession field goal 27-24 win.
Tayyib: In totality, the Eagles are the better team. But Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Spagnuolo have been here before. That big-game experience may prove critical, given the relative inexperience on the Philly sideline. I see the Chiefs taking the lead late with a Butker field goal and winning 26-24.
William: I went into the season higher on the Eagles than the Chiefs, and I still am. As great as Mahomes and the Chiefs are, I do not think their defense will be enough for the high-flying Eagles. Eagles will win this 31-27.
Jack: I think this will be a close one, but I’m sticking with my preseason pick and taking the Chiefs. Even with a formidable Eagles team on the opposite side I think it is just too difficult to pick against Mahomes. I’ll say a 30-24 win for the Chiefs.
