After 18 weeks of regular season football we have made it to the playoffs. Things kick off this weekend with six wild card matchups that promise to be full of entertainment.
With Kevin Sayer on a well-deserved holiday, our regulars Tayyib Abu and Jack Brentnall are joined by Tom Clapham to preview the weekend’s action.
There are six wild card teams on display this weekend. Which do you think has the best chance of getting the win? And do you think any of them can go all the way?
Tayyib: Not in the NFC! The Seahawks have crawled into the playoffs, and it’s tough to envisage them beating San Francisco. The Giants are a tough, tenacious team, but their ultimate weaknesses will stop them from going far. And the Cowboys are playing too inconsistently to worry the conference’s top teams.
In the AFC, using the process of elimination, the wild card with the best chance is the Chargers. The Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins may get shutout in Buffalo, and the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens are in trouble against the Bengals. The Chargers’ game at Jacksonville feels like a 50-50, and with Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, Austin Ekeler, and others, LA has the individual talent to hurt anyone. If a wild card team is going to make a run, it will be the Chargers.
Tom: I read recently that over the last four years, the sixth seed during wild card weekend is 7-1 overall. Given that they have to face the No. 3 seed, that is way higher than I expected it to be. This year’s sixth seeds are the New York Giants and the Baltimore Ravens. I know the Vikings have been hit and miss this year, however I cannot allow myself to predict Daniel Jones beating them and going deep into the playoffs.
I am therefore left with the Ravens vs Bengals. Joey Burrow has the swagger required to be an elite level quarterback and he has a very good team around him too. We are discounting the playoff Ravens though, which you do at your own peril. The January/February Ravens are a completely different team to their regular season counterpart. History has shown they are a rough playoff match for anyone. Maybe there is an upset coming?
Jack: This could come back to bite me, but there are three wild card teams that you can write off from the outset. The Ravens and Dolphins stand little chance without their starting quarterbacks. The Giants might win this weekend, but they don’t have the talent to hold their own against the NFL’s elite. That leaves four possible teams, and for me the one I think has a real shot is the Cowboys.
We all like to laugh at the eternal optimism of Cowboys fans thinking this is their year. That said, I see no reason they can’t take advantage of a weak conference. They have talent at every position on offense. On defense they have a front four that will cause nightmares for even the best offenses. I’m not saying it is likely, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if it happened either.
Let’s talk a little about the 49ers and Brock Purdy. Mr Irrelevant has taken the team to six straight wins and they seem unstoppable. Do you think they are legitimate contenders, or will their luck run out in the playoffs?
Tayyib: They are legitimate contenders. You cannot win ten straight games in the NFL and not be a legitimate contender. The other advantage San Francisco will have is they could play two of their potential three games at home. Add that to their playoff experience and outstanding talent. It is hard to look past them. However, if the NFC playoffs go to plan, the 49ers must travel to Philadelphia on championship Sunday, which could cause some problems. Since their Week 10 bye, the Niners have played eight games out on the West Coast. Their one ‘road’ game was Mexico City, where they played in front of a 49er crowd. The last time the 49ers played on the East Coast was in Week 6.
Brock Purdy has displayed remarkable poise and panache, but if the road to Arizona forces a trip to Philadelphia, it will be a stern examination of his confidence and nerves. We have no idea how Purdy will handle himself in hostile territory, or how he will deal with the cold weather conditions. The 49ers are good enough to get to the NFC Championship game. Are they good enough to beat Philadelphia in Philadelphia? I am not sure.
Tom: In his very short time in the league, Brock Purdy has played some very good football. That said, he is certainly helped by being on a team that is set up to contend. The stars are all over the field, including a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner in Nick Bosa. Life is easier in San Francisco for the last pick than it would be in most other situations. I think the 49ers are where they are today based on elite players, great coaching, and a quarterback playing mistake-free football. We’ve also seen worse players than the Iowa State product play in a Super Bowl. That said, I do still think the 49ers may hit a wall. Purdy hasn’t thrown for more than 284 yards in a game this season. If a team can force San Francisco into a shootout, I think that is where they will fall down.
Jack: I’ve been hugely impressed by what I’ve seen from Purdy. He even managed to make our 2022 All-Rookie Team ahead of Kenny Pickett. That certainly isn’t something I expected to be saying before the season began! As for whether they are contenders, I have no doubt that they can go all the way with Purdy. The talent advantage everywhere else on the roster is substantial and more than good enough to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
I don’t think that they will do though. I just can’t shake the nagging feeling that we’ve seen this story before. Last year the 49ers got to the NFC Championship, before Jimmy Garoppolo torpedoed their chances of making it to the main event. They also fell short in Super Bowl LIV, again because of inadequacies at quarterback. I worry that Purdy might struggle when the lights are brightest. After all, he’s only beaten one defense that ranks top ten in DVOA this season.
Perhaps the most difficult game to predict this weekend is the Vikings vs the Giants. Both teams have looked great at times. They have also had occasions where they have looked atrocious. How do you think this one goes?
Tayyib: Boring answer, but I think it will be a one-score game. The regular season fixture finished 27-24 in Minnesota’s favour, and I think it could be a similar scoreline in this game. Ultimately, I think it will come down to two factors; how does Kirk Cousins navigate his way through Wink Martindale’s plethora of blitzes? Martindale is one of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, and the Giants arguably have the best blitz packages in the NFC. They don’t blitz recklessly; they are well-disciplined.
The other factor is this; can Minnesota’s appalling defense stifle the Giants’ offense? New York does not own a game-changer on offense. They are competent and challenging but not potent. In the end, I am leaning toward Minnesota to sneak a tight win.
Tom: I find it difficult to believe I live in a world where Daniel Jones is a playoff calibre Quarterback. I did not rate the pick in 2019 and I still don’t now. The Vikings have had their moments this year, they are one of the worst 13 win teams I have seen in a while. When they are firing on all cylinders, they can absolutely crush teams. The problem is this does not always happen. There is a legitimate chance that the Giants upset the Vikings in the playoffs, behind a strong run game and a good defense. Minnesota should have enough to put the Giants away, but there are no guarantees. This is one of the closer games this week, it is harder to predict, but I still think the Vikings have enough to come out victorious.
Jack: This is a strange matchup! For me it is all about which version of the Vikings turn up. Their inability to maintain any sort of consistency is baffling and it is hard to ignore that in some big matchups they were entirely absent. But when they find the right gear…well, there aren’t many teams that can contain them. The Giants on the other hand might not have that top end, but they have at least been pretty consistent through recent weeks.
In terms of a prediction, I have a feeling the Giants might edge it. Their biggest weakness is their run defense, but in Minnesota they face a team who are completely incapable of running the ball. They also have a one man wrecking crew in Dexter Lawrence, who could take advantage of a vulnerable Vikings interior offensive line in the passing game.
With Bucs vs Cowboys we are getting a repeat of a Week 1 matchup. Both teams feel fairly evenly matched right now. What could be the deciding factor in this one?
Tayyib: Deciding factor? Can the Cowboys play disciplined football under the most intense pressure? Dallas finished top ten in penalty yardage punishments for the regular season. Turnovers have consistently plagued the offense, and there are clock management questions concerning the head coach. For all of Tampa’s flaws, they do not beat themselves. Tom Brady is the master of game management and leading teams in big games. The Cowboys are the better team, but their inability to play mistake-free football cost them last season. And it will condemn them to a ninth straight road playoff loss if they make more errors in this one.
Tom: The deciding factor is going to be how much the Cowboys want to bottle another playoff series. One of the least reliable teams in recent memory, the Cowboys will do everything in their power to eliminate themselves from contention by losing a bad game. Dak and company have all the talent to go all the way, however unless their man under center books his ideas up, it will be the same story. Get to the playoffs, immediately get bounced from the playoffs and sent packing. Another factor is which Brady we get in this matchup. If we have focused, locked in Brady then this could be a bloodbath, however if we get the distracted Brady then the Bucs are in trouble.
Jack: The deciding factor in this one has to be the trenches, specifically the Dallas defense vs te Bucs’ offensive line. We all know how the Bucs have struggled with their offensive line this season. They have been consistently unable to run the ball, despite Todd Bowles’ insistence on doing so. They have also had their share of passing game worries. The only reason Tom Brady hasn’t been turned into pulp is his ability to get the ball out a league-low 2.29 seconds. That might keep him upright, but it has also limited Tampa Bay’s ability to consistently work the deep game. That is something they will need to do against a banged up Cowboys cornerback room and it has been their route to success this season – just watch that Panthers game.
The Cowboys’ defensive line is going to be one of their toughest tests of the season. Dallas rank second in adjusted sack rate and have Micah Parsons, who is tied for the league lead in pressures with 90. If the Bucs can’t find a fix for this, it could get ugly very fast.
Are there any specific player matchups that you are looking forward to watching this weekend?
Tayyib: Dallas’ defensive line vs. Tampa’s offensive line is a trench battle to savour. Dallas finished first in pass-rush win rate, while Tampa was 26th in pass-block success. However, Tom Brady ate just 22 sacks all season. He is the greatest pocket manipulator of all time and a genius at diagnosing pressure and firing the ball quickly. Dallas’ front four is monstrous, and they can win with four, but coordinator Dan Quinn will need all his tricks to get to Brady. Dallas might overload the weakside on various downs, have four defensive ends, and simulate pressures to confuse Brady and the Tampa offensive line. We have seen in the past Brady collapse under relentless, fast, and varied pressure. If the Cowboys are even one second late, the GOAT will dissect them.
Tom: For about 30 seconds yes, I get to see my beloved Miami Dolphins in the playoffs, however with Skylar Thompson under center, it will likely not be close up in Buffalo. Smokin’ Joe Burrow has a Ravens defense to face, and they will be primed to knock the cocky individual off his perch. This feels like the game with the biggest upset potential, therefore it should be the most fun to watch. With the likes of Humphreys vs Chase, you have an elite corner going against an elite receiver, sparks will fly in this game.
Jack: My matchup is in the Chargers-Jaguars game. If you haven’t watched much of the Jaguars this season you could be forgiven for not noticing the impressive tape that their second-year cornerback Tyson Campbell is putting together. Campbell has racked up 12 forced incompletions and is allowing a passer rating of just 80.0.
This weekend he has a really tough test against the Chargers. When these two teams faced off last, Campbell matched up primarily against Mike Williams, allowing him a single catch for 15 yards. Williams might miss this one, and if he does I expect Campbell to be tasked with shutting down Keenan Allen. Watching that battle of a veteran wideout and an exciting young cornerback should be great fun.