It’s time for Week 9! We have some interesting questions to consider this week. What should we make of the Vikings trade for Joshua Dobbs? What are the keys to victory for the Chiefs and Dolphins? And what exactly should we make of the NFC South?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, William Lane, Tayyib Abu, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
With Kirk Cousins out for the rest of the season, the Vikings made a trade for Joshua Dobbs. Do you think this was the right move?
Kev: Firstly, I am hugely disappointed for Cousins. Since the start of 2022 he has played the best ball of his career. We have always known that Cousins operates perfectly within a well-oiled system, but now he was improvising and taking risks when plays broke down. It’s hugely disappointing if this was his last game in purple.
When Kwesi Adofo-Mensah arrived he spoke about a “competitive rebuild”. A year and a half into this approach and it seems to me that being competitive and planning on future roster development are at odds with each other. Having your cake and eating it so to speak… This Josh Dobbs move for me is exactly that.
The Vikings are not going to win a Super Bowl with Dobbs. He has played better than expected this season, but he is not a week in, week out starter. The Vikings are also not going to win a Super Bowl with Nick Mullins or Jaren Hall, but they may unearth a hidden gem or future backup if they were to start Hall.
I appreciate the message to the roster that the team is not giving up, but I just don’t see the long term logic. The cost is not high on what is a half season rental and trade itself is fair. The question for me is how many more wins will this trade get you?
Lastly let’s hear it for Captain Kirk who instead of staying at home being miserable and sulking attended the annual kids Halloween party …I’m not crying, you’re crying…
Tayyib: I think it was the only move. With Nick Mullens and Cousins on injured reserve, Jaren Hall was the only quarterback on the active roster. Dobbs’ experience in learning different systems in short timeframes should help him adapt quicker, and he will provide at least a floor of competent performance. Minnesota did not have to give up much for him, and they got a reliable veteran. It was the only smart move, and they made it.
William: In what was a pretty exciting trade deadline compared to years past, this was probably the most obvious move. The Vikings find themselves in a weird position. At 4-4 they can still contend for a playoff spot, so trading for Josh Dobbs seemingly feels like an upgrade on Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens.
The defense is playing well, and under Kirk Cousins this offense was rolling. My one concern is will this actually be enough? In what was a potentially career year for the Minnesota quarterback, they were still just barely getting by.
Dobbs has played well in Arizona, and he is a smart quarterback. He is one of the few quarterbacks with 1,500 passing yards and 250 rushing yards on the year, but is it enough? I think it will be enough for them to make the postseason, but my concerns for the near future continue to grow as we may have seen the last of Kirk as a Viking. You also still need to convince a generational talent like Justin Jefferson to stay in Minnesota.
Jack: No I don’t think this was the right move. I just can’t quite get my head around the logic with this one. Dobbs has been a serviceable enough starter in Arizona, but he’s not exactly been good. Through eight weeks he ranks 30th in EPA+CPOE composite, which measures the value of a play and how much the quarterback is responsible for that value. He’s sandwiched between Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett. What great company to keep!
The move is also a half-season rental. With rookie Jaren Hall the only quarterback currently under contract for 2024, surely it makes more sense to start working towards finding a long-term answer at the position. Maybe even see what you have, if anything in Hall?
Even with Dobbs on the roster, this isn’t a team that is set to contend. At best you might sneak into a wildcard slot and then fall out of the playoffs, thereby taking you out of the range to draft a good young quarterback. What good does that do this team in the long term?
The international games return this weekend with the Chiefs facing off against the Dolphins in Frankfurt. What are the keys to victory for each team?
Kev: There’ll be one highly motivated player in Tyreek Hill who will remain the key to Miami’s offensive success. The Chiefs are coming off a surprising loss against divisional rivals Denver for the first time in years. They will be hoping to put that firmly behind them for this game.
The return of Jalen Ramsey is a huge boost and will make it even tougher for Patrick Mahomes to find a valid contributor at wide receiver. I truly believe that for Kansas City to win this game someone needs to consistently step up at the receiver position and the run game needs to be leaned on to force Miami to commit more players to defend it. It can’t be on Mahomes week in, week out.
Key position groups for me are both defensive lines. Chirs Jones needs to continue causing interior pressure flushing Tua from the pocket. He cannot be allowed to sit in there and distribute short and intermediate throws to the Miami track team. Miami’s edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips need to be disciplined to restrict Mahomes from his off-schedule playmaking magic. I think Miami will cause problems but my concern is their two losses come against quality opposition. They need to ensure they don’t become the team that destroys bad teams but lose the more challenging games.
Tayyib: It’s weird to talk about defense, given how much star power there is on both offenses, but I think defense will be critical. Kansas City’s young defense is one of the best in the NFL. They are one of the best defenses at changing coverages and formations while maintaining competitiveness. Miami’s offensive personnel groupings always try to force an opponent into a defensive package they do not want to be in, but I am not sure they can do that against Kansas City. The Chiefs are comfortable in base, nickel or dime and can change from single-high looks to two-high looks as well as anyone.
For Miami’s defense, I am intrigued as to how they deploy Jalen Ramsey. At his best, he can blanket sections of the field, and with concerns over Kansas City’s ability to separate and get open, Miami could neuter the passing game. I think both defenses and how they present different problems to each offense will be the key.
William: The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off of their first loss to the Denver Broncos in almost 17 games. The last time they lost to Denver, Peyton Manning was their quarterback, so heading into this game I am already a bit concerned for this Chiefs team. First and foremost, they have to limit the turnovers that essentially lost them the game last week.
If they can win the turnover battle then that will seriously increase their chances of overcoming a high powered Dolphins offense. The run game is going to have to step up big time too, because currently this Chiefs offense feels like a two-man show.
For Miami the keys to victory are fairly similar. Limiting turnovers is a big one, because the Chiefs won’t turn it over five times again. Health will be key too. We saw the return of Jalen Ramsey last Sunday and he came back in a big way. Intercepting Mac Jones on what was a clinical play from the craft veteran. This team could possibly have Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland back as well. Just in time too, because in order to win this game they need to isolate Travis Kelce.
Jack: From the Chiefs’ side, the thing I’ll be watching is how they can run the football. That might sound strange in a matchup between two electric passing attacks, but bear with me. The reason the Chiefs were so good last season is because they were able to run the ball effectively when defenses sat back in two-high shells.
In 2022 they ranked 10th in rushing EPA and sixth in rush success rate. This season they have plummeted to 25th and 31st respectively. In theory they should be able to run on Miami, who are allowing the fifth highest rush success rate in football, but can they?
For the Dolphins, it is whether they can get their quick passing attack to work against this Chiefs defense. Kansas City has been exceptional against the pass this season, allowing the second lowest dropback success rate in the NFL. They have also been the second best defense in stopping throws over the short middle areas of the field per FTN. That is the Dolphins’ bread and butter. Can they find a creative way of attacking that, or do they change their gameplan and try something different?
The NFC South is the only division in football without a team with a winning record. If you’re looking ahead, which team do you think comes out on top and why?
Kev: I’m going to stick with my preseason selection of the Saints. Scoring is down across the league and defenses are hitting back. They clearly boast the best defensive unit in the division but need to get something consistent going on either side of the ball.
Alvin Kamara’s return has been welcome, but he’s always done his best work when part of a tandem. I’d like to see Jamal Williams and the offensive line making the run game a feared part of their offense.
I think I simply trust Derek Carr more than I do Mayfield or Ridder. The Falcons are a frustrating watch and it could come down to the final game of the season between New Orleans and Atlanta for the divisional championship and the postseason spot.
Tayyib: I picked the Falcons before the season and as much as I am worried about the quarterback situation, I will still stick with the Falcons. I still feel their skill group is the most potent in the division. I look at New Orleans and Tampa, and I just don’t trust them to find consistency.
The Falcons have two divisional wins already, and I think with Heinicke, he might make enough smart plays without the turnovers. I have not seen enough from the other teams to make me change my mind on Atlanta.
William: My immediate reaction to this was Atlanta, but with the concerns at quarterback I am just not too sure. I had raved about this team during the offseason, but Desmond Ridder can only take you so far. And after last Sunday’s showing, Heinicke is looking like the better option under center.
This team has dropped four of their last six games. As it currently stands this offense is averaging barely over 17 points per game, which is 28th in the NFL. These next few weeks are going to tell us the full story on Arthur Smith and his coaching staff.
Jack: I picked Atlanta in the preseason and I haven’t seen enough from any of the other teams to change my mind. Have the Falcons been frustrating? Definitely! Does the indecisiveness at quarterback concern me? Totally! But this a team that has managed to move the ball pretty well on offense and sit 12th in drive success rate. Even if I have my doubts about Taylor Heinicke this feels like a reliable offense. The defense hasn’t been to shabby either!
As for the rest of the pack, I think the only other real contender for the division is New Orleans. They certainly have the best defense of the group and on their day they have an offense that can cause problems for good teams. Their problem has been consistency, and that scares me off picking them to win the division.
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 9?
Kev: The Ravens-Seahawks game is one that looks like it could be fun for me. A matchup of two first placed teams in their respective division, maybe somewhat surprisingly for Seattle. Lamar Jackson comes into this game on red hot form and has earned legitimate MVP talk.
When he previously won it he threw 36 touchdowns with six interceptions and ran for over 1,200 yards. This season he’s thrown for 1,747 yards, with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s thriving in the new offense and distributing the ball amongst the rising playmakers.
Geno Smith is once again leading Seattle with some sublime plays, but despite sitting in first place there is some occasional carelessness that may come back to bite them in crucial games. The offense will have its hands full as the Ravens lead the NFL with 31 sacks this season. This could be a very entertaining game and I’m interested in how Seattle’s young secondary (especially the corners) deal with the aerial and ground threat of the Ravens.
Tayyib: Cowboys at Eagles is the game for me. Dallas’ recent record at Philadelphia is poor, and I am still unsure how this Cowboys side can play against the heavy hitters. Through eight weeks, the Eagles have solved problems better than any other team, and in AJ Brown, they have the most in-form player in the NFC.
The Cowboys’ defense is still playing at a high level. DaRon Bland is playing exceedingly well right now, and they are still excellent at rushing the quarterback. In a game that could decide the NFC East, the Cowboys will need to be at their very best. I doubt if they can go to Philly and win. The Eagles are undefeated at home. But it feels like now or never for Dallas.
William: I am looking forward to seeing how Bryce Young can build on his first career victory at the NFL level! This week they have a very winnable game against an Indianapolis Colts team which ranks 25th in passing yards allowed per game.
Last week Young completed 62% of his passes for 235 yards and a touchdown, whilst crucially avoiding a turnover. That was a step in the right direction for the No. 1 overall pick in this past year’s draft, and he should look to build on that. Another thing to keep an eye on is fellow rookie Jonathan Mingo, who feels primed for a breakout game.
Last weekend he and Bryce Young connected on a 40-yard pass, making it the longest of both of their careers. Since the bye week, his usage in this offense has only seemed to increase. Going against a fairly weak Colts secondary could be what he needs to get his first NFL touchdown.
Jack: I’m interested to see what Will Levis looks like against the Steelers. There was plenty of fanfare after his four touchdown game against the Falcons in Week 8. People seemed ready to crown him as a franchise star of the future after just one NFL start. If you look a little closer though, as I did in this week’s Three and out, there was some crucial added context.
Tennessee lacked down-to-down consistency and Levis was asked to operate a fairly simplistic gameplan. That might work against a poor Falcons pass defense, but the Steelers are a different kind of test. How does he fare against pressure from TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith? Does he operate a more conventional NFL offense? Does he look comfortable doing so? This feels like a game where we will learn a lot.