If you are looking for betting value, player props are a good place to start. We are sharing four of our favourite player prop bets from Week 9 and why we think they are worth betting on.
Saquon Barkley – Over 75.5 rushing yards
The Giants offense is ugly – there’s no other way to put it. That said, I am willing to wager on Barkley going over his rushing total this weekend. For starters, there is his usage. Since returning from injury in Week 6 he has had 81 carries. This leads the league by a wide margin. Even if Barkley hasn’t been efficient on those carries, they add up, and he’s exceeded 75 yards in each game.
It’s also important to remember who the Giants are facing. This weekend they go up against a Raiders team in disarray. Las Vegas have been utterly incapable of stopping the run all year. They currently sit 30th in rushing EPA per play and 29th in rushing success rate allowed. They surrendered 222 rushing yards to the Lions last week and 173 to the Bears the week before.
CeeDee Lamb – Over 76.5 receiving yards
Lamb had a bit of a slow start to the season but Mike McCarthy seems to have finally found out how to get the best out of him in this offense. Over the last two weeks, the Cowboys have used Lamb more in a traditional X receiver role and it has paid dividends, with 275 yards in his last two games. In those games he saw 78.2% of his yardage come as a boundary receiver, compared to just 41.1% in the weeks prior.
That bodes well for this weekend’s clash with the Eagles. Whilst Philadelphia might boast a pair of good cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, they have struggled at times in coverage. They have allowed an average of 91.4 yards per game to opposing WR1s per FTN. They have also allowed at least one 85+ yard game in each of their last five games.
Josh Jacobs – Longest carry under 15.5 yards
This one is pretty simple. The Raiders running game just isn’t very good this season. They sit 31st in EPA per rush. Their backs are hit at or behind the line of scrimmage at the fourth highest rate in the NFL and they rank 30th in open field yards. With an anaemic passing game opponents have been able to sell out to stop Jacobs. Per Next Gen Stats he’s faced eight or more defenders in the box on 26.3% of attempts. This is a big jump from 20.6% in 2022.
He’s shown no real ability to make explosive gains on the ground and despite having the fourth most carries in the NFL he has just two runs of 15+ yards. No running back with 100+ carries has fewer. This weekend he faces a Giants defense that has actually been very effective at stopping breakaway carries, having not allowed any in their last three games.
Patrick Mahomes – Over 24.5 rushing yards
Bet this prop before the line shifts. Mahomes might not be a big runner, but he should have no problem hitting this mark. After all, he has done so in six of his eight games so far this season. Of the two in which he fell short, one was last week when he was dealing with a sickness and the other was against the blitz happy Vikings where, for just the second time in two years, he didn’t have a single carry or scramble.
With the Chiefs’ running backs struggling to get things going, it feels like they may lean more into their quarterback this weekend if they are trying to move the ball on the ground against Miami.