If you are thinking of laying a bet on the upcoming weekend of NFL action, it is always smart to maximise value and target the spread early in the week. Here are three picks against the spread you should consider ahead of Week 9.
Los Angeles Rams (+2) vs Green Bay Packers
The Rams were blown apart by the Cowboys in Week 8, but I think that speaks more to the talent in Dallas than it does to any major problems in LA. This is still an offense that sits 11th in EPA per play this season. Their issue so far has been on the other side of the ball as they rank 23rd in the equivalent metric. That will cost you against good teams, but that’s not what they are facing in Week 9.
The Packers have been a disaster on both sides of the ball this season. The offense is suffering major growing pains, with the lack of any veteran talent clearly hampering their production. They don’t have any explosiveness to their running game and pass protection has been an increasing concern. The big problem in this matchup though is their run defense. Green Bay can’t stop anyone at the moment and they now face a Rams offense that ranks fifth in rushing EPA this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) vs Buffalo Bills
After a torturously slow start, the Bengals finally feel like a team that is finally finding its feet. They are heading into Week 9 off the back of two good wins against strong teams. After beating the Seahawks in Week 7, they got the upset over the 49ers in Week 8, running out 31-17 winners. Since Week 5 they lead the entire NFL in success rate on offense.
That’s bad news for a Bills defense that is missing a bunch of starters. Buffalo’s absences are really starting to add up. After ranking fourth in EPA per play allowed through four weeks, they have plummeted to 29th since Week 5. In that period they have also given up the sixth highest dropback success rate. That’s not good news against a Bengals offense that wants to drop back and dice up opponents. This should be a close one, but I think the Bengals have enough to win and cover.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) vs Baltimore Ravens
I’m still not sure this Seahawks offense is getting enough credit. Despite injuries along the offensive line and at receiver, they sit eighth in offensive EPA and rank fourth in play success rate. For context, that puts them ahead of the Ravens, Eagles, and Chiefs. Their defense has also been quietly competent, ranking inside the top ten in both EPA per play and success rate allowed.
All of this should make them a handful for the Ravens in Week 9. Baltimore has been absolutely electric this season, but the gap between these two teams feels like it is closer than a 5.5 point spread suggests. I’d trust the Ravens to get the win, but Seattle should keep things close.