It’s time for Week 8! We have some interesting questions to consider this week. Should we be panicking about the Bills? Who wins this weekend’s clash in the NFC North? And what is the best matchup of the weekend?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, William Lane, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
The Bills fell to 4-3 last week with their loss to New England. If they lose this week to the Bucs do you think it’s time to hit the panic button?
Kev: The panic button seems drastic. The tick boxes that a franchise needs in order to set themselves up for long term success remain filled. A playmaking signal caller who’s top five at his position and under a long term contract – check. A proficient coaching staff – check. A front office who has the team’s best interests at heart and has proven to have more successful personnel moves than bad ones – check.
There’s some offseason salary cap adjustments to make as a result of deals with void years, and next year we see Josh Allen’s own cap hit take a big leap. The present problems are the result of injuries on defense. I think when fully fit they will still be a force in the AFC Championship race.
The concerns for me come offensively, I really need to see a consistent threat opposite Stefon Diggs. Dalton Kincaid was drafted with high hopes, but we seldom see young tight ends make an immediate difference. With the trade deadline looming, could it be time to take a chance on a DeAndre Hopkins or a Jerry Jeudy? Ultimately I still see them in the postseason challenging for the AFC crown.
William: Buffalo entered the season as a Super Bowl favorite, and even after last week’s loss I see them as a contender. To hit the panic button after a loss to your division rival in their own home seems a bit rich to me. You are set at quarterback, you have a competent coaching staff, and a front office willing to make the moves necessary to remain competitive. And with the trade deadline on the horizon, maybe we see this front office make one of those big moves.
The headline is this injury riddled defense, but on Sunday what ultimately cost them was the lack of a second option on offense. Their slow start offensively is inexcusable when you have one of the best QB/WR duos in the league. The Patriots had them figured out early on and that is what cost them. A more for Jerry Jeudy, DeAndre Hopkins, or maybe even Marquise Brown could potentially put them back out in front of the playoff race in the AFC.
It’s worth noting that, per spotrac, $35 million of Buffalo’s salary cap sits on injured reserve. Losses like Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano are seemingly costly in more ways than one. The Bills may have to get creative if they are to make any additions to this roster at the deadline.
Jack: It all depends on what we mean by panic button. Am I worried about this team long term? No. Do I have any real worries about the coaching staff? Again, no. These recent issues are simply a case of injury attrition, especially on defense. When everyone is healthy, Buffalo is still one of the very best teams in the NFL.
But if we are talking about this season, I’d be very worried if they lose this weekend. The AFC is full of strong teams and that would make any chances of playoff football even more remote. Let’s not forget, this is a team who still has to face the Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys. They can’t afford to drop a game like this against the Bucs.
In each of the last three seasons we have seen a 2-5 team go on and make the playoffs. This season we have four teams (Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Bears) at 2-5. If one of them were to make the playoffs, who do you think it will be?
Kev: These are four difficult teams to get excited about. I have little hope in any of them to be honest. If I’m forced into an answer I’d back the legendary coach for the Patriots. My issue with them is, (as I’ve said before) what players excite you on this team? I still back old miserly Bill to put a defensive masterclass together, but they just don’t have the firepower to scare anyone week in week out.
As for the other three….The Broncos appear rotten and it’s getting to the point where I can see them swallowing the Wilson contract whatever the consequences. Giants have made their bed with Daniel Jones and I believe are in for season upon season of hell unless they commit the resources around him. The Bears will be looking for a new head coach in the offseason. They’ve got significant injuries in the backfield and Justin Fields just isn’t going to consistently perform to the level so many want him to. I’m all the way out on this questionable quartet!
William: At this point in time it feels unlikely that any of these teams will see a wildcard spot. If I am to go to bat for one of these teams though it would be the New England Patriots. This is a team that has beaten itself more than any team has beaten them. As frustrating as that is, it is also one of the more fixable issues among these teams. This team is “starting over,” and it all starts with personnel changes.
The first major change that we saw on Sunday was moving Mike Ownenu back to right tackle, where he played in 2021. Heading into Week 7, the Patriots ranked dead last in pass blocking grades by right tackles per PFF. The reshuffling of their offensive line may save their disaster of a season, with rookie Sidy Sow also turning up and playing well on Sunday. This was a much-needed performance from an line that has been the main issue for this offense.
While on the topic of offense, some may have noticed a drastic shift in offensive play calling. Bill O’brien utilized motion on 72.7% of their plays on Sunday. This played to rookie Demario Douglas’s benefit who broke out for a career-high 74 scrimmage yards. Hopefully we can continue to see an uptick in production from their young pieces. All of this on top of a fairly easy schedule to end the year and this team may be knocking on the door of 8-9 wins. In a competitive AFC this may not be enough to make the playoffs, but it is a drastic turnaround from 2-5.
Jack: I’ll start by saying that I really don’t think any of these teams make the playoffs. That said, if someone out of that group is going to then I’d pick the Bears. I’d rule out the Patriots and Broncos simply because of the depth of talent in the AFC. I’m also out on the Giants given that they seemingly have nothing to cling to on either side of the ball – they are the only one of these four teams to rank in the bottom ten in both offensive and defensive EPA.
The Bears don’t inspire much confidence, but they have a few things working in their favour. For starters, they have picked things up in recent weeks. Since Week 4 they have a positive point differential. In that period they sit fifth in offensive success rate, ahead of the Chiefs and Eagles! They also have the easiest remaining schedule of the four teams per FTN. It’s still unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule it out just yet.
We’ve got a clash between rivals in the NFC North as the Packers face the Vikings. This feels like a big game for both teams. Who are you picking and why?
Kev: I was pleased to see the Vikings pull off their first complete team performance against the 49ers on Monday. Too often they’ve not executed at crucial times and this has cost them. Watching your team constantly be in one score games is not good for the heart!
I thought for once they had a well drilled plan on defense, using five down lineman to shut down a lot of the outside zone plays. The game on Sunday is a game they should win. I can tell you watching the Vikings for so long one thing we do is make hard work of games we should win.
The Packers are an inexperienced unit and whilst this brings optimism and excitement it’s clear there is no identity to this team. It’s also obvious to those watching that your job as coach is considerably more difficult when you don’t have a Hall of Fame quarterback.
This is Jordan Love’s first season as a starter and there are going to be some good and some bad regardless of how long he’s been in the league. I worry about the Green Bay line keeping him clean but if they can I do like the receivers one-on-one against the Vikings corners.
I think in the end though Minnesota can hold their own defensively, even if Cousins is in the middle of #kirktober (yes, this is a thing). Divisional football can always throw out strange results and I’m going for another low scoring, one-score nail biter. Vikings win!
William: The Minnesota Vikings without a doubt should win on Sunday. The Packers are just in a tough spot. Inconsistencies from Jordan Love on top of inexperienced players at skill positions is a tough combo when going into a potential shootout. This defense has underperformed too. Any hope they might win them games just hasn’t come to pass.
After the impressive performance from Jordan Addison, any worries that I might have had about him were put to rest. He and TJ Hockenson are capable of being a matchup nightmare for any defense. Even if the Packers secondary can hold up, what about their run defense? As it stands they rank 30th in opponent rushing yards per game.
If Minnesota is to take advantage of this then there is no hope. They’ve had their issues in this department with Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison, but if they were to break free against anyone it would be against this Packers front seven.
Jack: It hurts to do this, but I am picking the Vikings. That’s not just because they beat the 49ers either. After suffering through the Packers’ performance against the Broncos on Sunday I’d have taken almost anyone over Green Bay. The Packers seem to have problems in almost every department. Inexperienced skill position players, injuries at key spots, and inconsistent quarterback play have hampered them massively. That’s before we get onto a perennially underperforming defense.
By contrast, I think this Vikings team is better than the team that finished 13-4 last season. The numbers bear that out too. Minnesota sits 14th and 15th in offensive and defensive DVOA respectively, compared to 20th and 24th last season. They also rank higher in yards per drive and drive success rate than they did in 2022. They have done all of this whilst being without Justin Jefferson for two games. I think they get the win here fairly comfortably.
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 8?
Kev: I seem to mention the Jaguars every week here, but I’m keen to see the Steelers pass rush against the Jaguars offensive line this weekend. Jacksonville are allowing pressure at a league average rate according to PFF. Trevor Lawrence’s natural athleticism has been called into regular action too, with his 23 scrambles ranking second to only Lamar Jackson.
T.J Watt and Alex Highsmith will play a key role in this game with a noisy home stadium. This could be a crucial game with wildcard ramifications. I like the Steelers for this with their tales currently up after the Rams win.
William: It is reported that rookie quarterback Will Levis could be in line for his first NFL start on Sunday. With Ryan Tannehill’s status still up in air for Sunday’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, it seems that Vrabel has gone ahead and made the call to prepare Levis. Early reports stated that Levis and Malik Willis should see playing time, but unless it is to be a dumpster fire from Levis I have my doubts.
The Levis / Ridder matchup should be an interesting storyline to follow. I would expect a lot of running the football on Sunday and not a ton of scoring. Ridder has still yet to leave us with any confidence in his ability as it still feels like he is holding back a playoff roster. Levis on the other hand is walking into a dumpster fire of an offense that could have change coming at the deadline. I am just excited for the storyline more than anything.
Jack: I’m really keen to see how Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland holds up against the Rams’ dominant wide receiver duo. Bland has stepped in at outside cornerback following the injury to Trevon Diggs and he’s quietly been one of the best in the business. He has given up just 130 yards on 27 targets and allowed a single completion of more than 20 yards.
Tests don’t get any tougher than the one he will face this weekend. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been the best receiving duo in football so far this season and the Rams are the only team to have two players inside the top 10 in yards per route run. It doesn’t feel like a stretch to say whoever wins this matchup could win their team the game.