If you are looking for betting value, player props are a good place to start. We are sharing four of our favourite player prop bets from Week 8 and why we think they are worth betting on.
Tyreek Hill – Under 90.5 receiving yards
Hill is setting a historic pace in Miami this season, so betting the under may seem a little foolish at first glance. This one is all about the matchup though, as the Dolphins prepare to go up against the Patriots and Bill Belichick. If there is one thing Belichick still does better than anybody it is stifle the best weapon on an opposing offense.
New England are allowing a league best 40.2 yards per game to opposing WR1s. This is a defense that held Stefon Diggs to 58 yards, Davante Adams to 29, and Chris Olave to just 12. They also gave up just 40 yards to Hill when the two teams met in Week 2. The Patriots haven’t given up a single 90+ yard performance all season, and I think that continues here.
Lamar Jackson – Over 47.5 rushing yards
Jackson may be rushing less than he used to under Greg Roman, but make no mistake – he is still one of the best and most dynamic rushing quarterbacks in football. He leads all quarterbacks in scrambles (30) and ranks second in designed rushes (39). He has hit this game’s total in three of his seven outings and topped 45 yards four times.
The reason I’m bullish about him hitting the over this weekend is the matchup. The Cardinals’ defense has really struggled to contain the run this season. Through seven weeks they sit 30th in rush success rate allowed and are giving up an average of 130.7 rushing yards per game. In their one game against a true mobile quarterback, they allowed Daniel Jones to run for 59 yards.
Drake London – Over 51.5 receiving yards
People may think the Falcons’ passing game is virtually non-existent, but it has been getting more and more successful through recent weeks. Desmond Ridder is averaging 295 passing yards per game since Week 5 and London’s production has taken a jump in response. He has topped this total in each of his last three games, averaging seven catches for 86 yards in that stretch.
This weekend the Falcons face off against a really poor Titans secondary. Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback and is allowing the fourth highest dropback success rate in football. They are allowing an average of 8.7 catches and 101.1 yards to opposing WR1s this season. All of this bodes well for London and Atlanta.
Raheem Mostert – Longest run over 14.5 yards
Miami’s offensive is built around explosive plays. Their passing game speaks for itself, but their run game is full of big plays too. Mostert leads the NFL with eight explosive carries (15+ yards) this season. That is despite ranking just 21st in total carries. He has had a carry of at least 15 yards in five of his seven games so far this season.
This weekend he goes up against a Patriots defense that has had some issues stopping the run. They have given up their fair share of explosives too. New England has allowed at least one 15+ yard carry in all but one game this season. It feels like Mostert should get his ninth explosive run of the season this weekend.