If you are thinking of laying a bet on the upcoming weekend of NFL action, it is always smart to maximise value and target the spread early in the week. Here are three picks against the spread you should consider ahead of Week 8.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jaguars might not have set the world alight this season, but they have shown themselves to be a very solid team. The offense has been effective, whilst the defense has taken a substantial leap to rank amongst the better units in football. Through seven weeks this is a team who has been above average on both sides of the ball and who sit seventh in DVOA, sandwiched between the Dolphins and Eagles.
The Steelers are riding high after beating the Rams. Whilst their defense is a predictably strong unit, don’t let that win fool you about the state of this offense. Their 38.2% play success rate is tied for the worst mark in the entire NFL. In their three games against top ten defenses they have averaged -0.198 EPA per play, which would rank 31st in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams (+6) vs Dallas Cowboys
The Rams will have been disappointed to lose to the Steelers in Week 7, but let’s not write this team off. They have still had one of the best offenses in football through seven weeks and have shown that they are capable of holding their own against good teams. This is after all a team that ranks sixth in offensive DVOA, putting them ahead of the likes of Detroit and Philadelphia.
The Cowboys are going to be a tough opponent, but they too are a team with flaws. A lack of consistency and issues in the red zone have plagued their offense all season. The absence of Trevon Diggs is also likely to cause problems against a team that boasts both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I think the Cowboys should win this one, but the two teams have been much closer in performance levels than a six point spread would suggest.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs Cleveland Browns
The Seahawks might not have grabbed a tonne of headlines this season, but they deserve to be in consideration for one of the most exciting teams in football. They have shown the ability to move the ball on the ground and through the air, despite a raft of injuries to key players on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense has also been solid.
By contrast, the Browns can lay claim to a truly elite defense but have very little to speak of on offense. They sit 31st in EPA per play and have a lower dropback success rate than the likes of New England and Carolina. Your defense can only take you so far in that sort of situation and we saw that play out in their Week 7 loss to the Gardner Minshew-led Colts. With Deshaun Watson potentially out again and Jerome Ford likely to miss time, it feels like they could have another loss heading their way.