If you are looking for betting value, player props are a good place to start. We are sharing four of our favourite player prop bets from Week 7 and why we think they are worth betting on.
Kenneth Walker – Over 78.5 rushing yards
This is my favourite player prop for Week 7 for a number of reasons. For starters, Walker is getting plenty of work this season, logging at least 17 carries in each of his last four games. The Seahawks have also had real success on the ground this season, ranking second in the NFL in EPA per rush and ninth in rush success rate.
This weekend they face off against a struggling Cardinals defense. Arizona is allowing the highest rush success rate in football entering Week 7. They are also coming off a game against the Rams that saw them allow 179 rushing yards at 6.4 per attempt. I expect the Seahawks to be playing with a lead for much of this game, and Walker should get plenty of work.
Rashee Rice – Over 38.5 receiving yards
He might not have set the box score alight, but Rice has been a very solid weapon for the Chiefs as a rookie. His 2.75 yards per route run leads all rookies and he has become increasingly involved in the passing game through recent weeks. He has now earned 20 targets in his last four games, comfortably the most of any Chiefs wide receiver.
This all bodes well for a matchup against a poor Chargers defense. They have been unable to stop the pass all year and have given up an incredible 111.4 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s. With plenty of attention no doubt going in the direction of Travis Kelce, I expect Mahomes to look Rice’s way and for him to put up good numbers again this weekend.
Tyreek Hill – Anytime touchdown scorer
Hill continues to be one of the game’s most electrifying talents and he has been finding the end zone regularly this season. He leads the league with six receiving touchdowns and has at least one in all but one game this season. On top of that, he is also getting a tonne of work, with 56 targets through his six games.
The Eagles have a good defense, but they have had issues containing top receivers this season. The fact that they are trotting out two cornerbacks over 30 years old also won’t help the matchup with a speedster like Hill. Philly is giving up 102.7 yards per game to opposing WR1s, the fourth highest mark in the NFL. With an offense this potent I’m willing to trust Hill finds his way into the end zone at some point.
Luke Musgrave – Over 33.5 receiving yards
This Packers offense has been a little up and down this season but I am still optimistic about Musgrave this weekend. He has clearly formed a good connection with Jordan Love and has the trust of his quarterback. In his last two healthy games he earned 15 targets. A good proportion (13%) of this work has come 20+ yards downfield too, which bodes well for a receiving yards prop.
It will certainly help given that Musgrave is facing the Broncos this weekend. Denver’s defense has been an unmitigated disaster in almost every department. They have allowed a whopping 440 yards per game and rank dead last in EPA per play. They are giving up a league-worst 74.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends.