If you are thinking of laying a bet on the upcoming weekend of NFL action, it is always smart to maximise value and target the spread early in the week. Here are three picks against the spread you should consider ahead of Week 7.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs Chicago Bears
The Raiders got the win over New England in Week 6, moving to 3-3. They might still look a little iffy and they might be without Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a back injury against New England. That said, they are if nothing else a somewhat serviceable NFL team. In the last three weeks they sit 21st in EPA per play on offense and 14th on defense. They actually looked better with Brian Hoyer at quarterback, who played with more controlled aggression than Garoppolo has done.
By contrast, the Bears continue to look like one of the very worst teams in the NFL. Their issues are now compounded by the fact that Justin Fields was forced to leave their Week 6 loss with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. That could mean that undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent gets the start in this one. Add in a defense you can’t really trust and it’s tough to see a world in which the Bears keep this one close.
Detroit Lions (+2.5) vs Baltimore Ravens
This feels like it should be a great matchup between two teams in red hot form. The Lions continued to impress in Week 6 with a 20-6 win against a good Buccaneers team. Their offense remains one of the most potent in football, and now they seem to have a defense to match. Through six weeks they sit fifth in EPA per play on defense, ahead of teams like the 49ers and Cowboys.
The Ravens have been excellent too, and almost feel unlucky not to have started the season 6-0. Their defense has been the standout so far. They are allowing the lowest success rate in the NFL and sit second in EPA per play. So why take the Lions? In a matchup this close, it’s simply a case of which offense you trust more. Right now that has to be Detroit.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs Denver Broncos
This feels like a must-win game for both teams. The Packers will want to get back on track after their bye, which was preceded by a terrible loss to the Raiders on Monday Night Football. That felt like a messy game on both sides of the ball, although I’d be wary of overreacting. The Packers have generally been solid so far this season, sitting 13th and 22nd in offensive and defensive EPA per play respectively. They should also get Aaron Jones back for this game, which would be huge.
The Broncos don’t have such cause for optimism. They looked anaemic against the Chiefs in Week 6, scoring just eight points and amassing 197 total yards. The bigger worry is of course the defense, which continues to rank amongst the worst we’ve seen in recent years. This is a unit that surrendered 28 points to a crisis-ridden Bears team and 21 points to a Zach Wilson-led Jets team. It’s hard not to see the Packers winning this one, even if it is in Denver.