Week 5 was full of drama. We saw six one score games and only five favourites ended up covering the spread. Things also look to be changing from a totals standpoint – prior to Week 5 the Over was hitting at a rate of 57.1 per cent. Last week it was down at 50 per cent.
There are definitely a few interesting games in this week’s slate from a betting standpoint, including the Rams at the 49ers and the Browns at the Steelers. Here are my picks and predictions for Week 6.
2020 Against the spread record: 42-32-2
2020 Straight up record: 54-21-1
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Vikings -4
Over/Under: 54
The Falcons finally pulled the trigger and fired Dan Quinn last weekend after another embarrassing loss, this time to the Panthers. The team now find themselves 0-5 and at the bottom of the NFC South and in the running for the No. 1 overall pick come the draft.
The Vikings on the other hand came so close to an upset win against the Seahawks last week before Russell Wilson led Seattle on a game-winning drive with seconds remaining. Whilst there are still question marks over the quality of their defense, their offense are beginning to move the ball effectively and they look more like the team we expected going into the season.
Dalvin Cook is out with a groin injury and this is bound to affect Minnesota’s game plan that normally revolves around their running game. Luckily for them this Falcons defense has been continually exposed through the air and with Thielen and Jefferson they should have too much for Atlanta.
Picks: Vikings -4, Over 54
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Ravens -10
Over/Under: 46.5
After a tough loss to the Chiefs in Week 4, the Ravens bounced back with a win against the Bengals last weekend. Lamar Jackson and their offense were far from their best and didn’t score a touchdown for the entire second half, but their defense was excellent. They finished the game with seven sacks and were a last second Bengals field goal away from forcing a shutout.
The Eagles’ struggles continued last week, though they came much closer to a win than many expected against the Steelers. Carson Wentz better than he has in recent weeks and was averaging a league-high 10.3 Completed Air Yards per attempt. He did still throw two picks though, taking his total to nine for the season and my doubts about this Eagles receiving corps remain, despite Travis Fulgham’s excellent game.
Even if Baltimore aren’t firing on all cylinders offensively they should have more than enough for the Eagles. Their blitz-heavy defense will cause a tonne of problems for a depleted Eagles offensive line and their secondary should be able to cover Philly’s underwhelming receiving corps. The spread is pretty big but the Ravens should cover. The over is probably my favourite bet on this one though.
Picks: Ravens -10, Over 46.5
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Panthers -1
Over/Under: 44
Given how things looked in preseason I can’t think of a pair of NFL teams that have been as surprisingly as Chicago and Carolina in terms of overachieving in 2020. The Bears find themselves 4-1 and Carolina are staying competitive in a tough NFC South at 3-2, despite missing Christian McCaffrey.
In truth I don’t think either team is as good as their record suggests and I’m expecting them to both finish closer to sub-.500 records when all is said and done. The Bears for instance have somehow managed four wins despite a point differential of just +5. Whilst their defense has been effective they just haven’t looked great on offense and were very lucky to come away with the win against the Bucs last week.
Despite a worse record I think that the Panthers have been the more impressive team and Matt Rhule is beginning to shape this team in his image. Teddy Bridgewater may not be the flashiest quarterback but he is getting things done and I think he will again this weekend.
Picks: Panthers -1, Over 45
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Colts -7.5
Over/Under: 46
After impressing over the first four weeks, Joe Burrow had one of those games that all rookies fear last week against the Ravens. Whilst his final stat line didn’t look horrendous, he threw a pick, had two fumbles and had a CPOE of -7. He was sacked seven times and his offensive line couldn’t deal with the blitz-heavy approach of the Ravens, with Burrow pressured on a staggering 47 per cent of his dropbacks.
Things didn’t look much better for the Colts against Cleveland and Philip Rivers was really poor. In addition to his two picks he managed to cause a safety with an intentional grounding penalty from the end zone. With Anthony Castonzo out they couldn’t handle the Browns’ pass-rush, giving up 13 total pressures. One of the few positives they could take from the game is the performance of their defense who look like one of the best in the league.
I think this should be an interesting game for both teams. The Bengals won’t bring the same level of pass-rushing threat as Cleveland and the Colts are one of the teams who blitz the least, so both quarterbacks should be in more favourable situations this week. The Colts should get the win here but I think that the Bengals should keep things close.
Picks: Bengals +7.5, Over 46
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Steelers -3
Over/Under: 50.5
The AFC North is beginning to look like one of best divisions in football right now. With their win against the Eagles the Steelers made it 4-0 to start the season. Amazingly the last time they did this was in 1979 when they won their third Super Bowl. Not far behind are Cleveland, who are 4-1 for the first time since 1994.
This looks like one of the best matchups of the week and whichever team gets the win has a chance to go top of the division. The Steelers have been one of the more well-rounded teams in the NFL and look pretty solid on both sides of the ball. The Browns on the other hand have been poor in the secondary but they have shown they can win in multiple ways on offense.
I think this will be a really close game but I’m taking the Steelers here. The Browns were undone in Week 1 by a solid Ravens defense who love to blitz. This weekend they are facing a Steelers team with the exact same qualities. I’m still not totally convinced by Pittsburgh’s offense but they should have enough to win here.
Picks: Steelers -3, Over 50.5
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Patriots -8
Over/Under: 45
This game was originally scheduled for Week 5 before being postponed due to coronavirus. Drew Lock looks like he might make a return this weekend and this Broncos offense certainly needs him. Right now they rank 31st according to PFF’s offensive rankings and things haven’t been working with Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien under center.
The Patriots look like they will have both Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore back for this one and I think that we will see a typical Bill Belichick masterclass. He loves to blitz inexperienced quarterbacks and I think we will see a lot of that this weekend. Lock has posted a passer rating of just 65.9 under pressure and almost five per cent of his throws have been turnover-worthy plays. The Broncos are still missing big playmakers on both sides of the ball and they could struggle badly here.
I’m taking the Patriots here and this is my lock of the week. Despite the disruption I feel like if anyone can handle this it is Belichick and it will have given him even more time to prepare for this Broncos offense. I’m 5-0 in my lock of the week predictions so far and I’m confident that the Patriots will give me another win this weekend.
Picks: Patriots -8, Over 45
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Lions -3
Over/Under: 54
If I was ranking this week’s slate of games in terms of excitement, this one is pretty close to the bottom. Whilst neither team has had a full-on collapse this season they have both been pretty underwhelming and their coaches both look like they are in the hot seat.
The Jags had plenty of chances against a previously winless Texans team last week but just couldn’t take their opportunities. With several missed kicks and a botched option play to James Robinson, things got away from them pretty quickly. Their issues with injuries admittedly did not help and they lost D.J. Chark early on. As well as missing Josh Allen and Myles Jack on defense, they were forced to play seventh round rookie Chris Claybrook because of injuries at corner and he allowed five receptions for 128 yards.
The Lions are coming off a bye after blowing a double digit lead against the Saints. The pressure is beginning to pile on Matt Patricia and you get the feeling that a loss against the Jags here could seal his fate. I’m not feeling great about either team but I’m taking the Lions here. Their quality at receiver should expose this depleted Jags secondary and I think that Patricia will hold on for a little while longer.
Picks: Lions -3, Under 54
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Titans -3.5
Over/Under: 53
Both of these teams entered the with hopes of another trip to the playoffs but have had very different starts to the season. The Titans became the talk of the NFL with their dominant performance against Buffalo on Tuesday and despite all of their off-field issues with coronavirus it doesn’t seem to have affected their performances.
The Texans on the other hand have been one of the biggest disappointments of 2020 so far. They got their first win of the season last week against the Jags under interim head coach Romeo Crenell but weren’t as dominant as the 30-14 scoreline would suggest.
I think the Texans will keep this close with Tennessee coming off a short week but the Titans should just about cover. I think that Deshaun Watson is due a big game and neither defense has impressed so I’d take the over too.
Picks: Titans -3.5, Over 53
Washington Football Team at New York Giants
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Giants -2
Over/Under: 43
This is another one of the Week 6 matchups that I’m not particularly keen on watching. Washington and New York wank 29th and 31st respectively according to PFF’s ELO rankings, meaning they 5.4 and 6.3 points worse than an average team on a neutral field. They have combined for a single win and that was Washington’s over the Eagles in Week 1.
Whilst the Giants remain winless, they have begun to show some promise. They looked pretty good last weekend against the Cowboys and they kept within a score of the Rams the week before. Washington on the other hand are coming off a terrible loss to the Rams. They averaged 2.1 yards per play, with just 1.8 yards per pass play and their quarterbacks were sacked eight times.
I’m taking the Giants here. I’m not expecting this to be an entertaining matchup and I think that both offenses will look sluggish. Whilst Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 1, none of the quarterbacks that Washington have wheeled out have been anything other than a disappointment. Washington will want to run the ball and if there is one thing this Giants defense is designed to do is to prevent that. They should cover here.
Picks: Giants -2, Under 43
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Point spread: Dolphins -8
Over/Under: 47.5
The Dolphins are coming off a huge high with their dominant win against the 49ers last weekend. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked excellent and their defense limited San Francisco to just 259 yards all game. This weekend marks the first time they have been a favourite under Brian Flores, a record that stretches back a whopping 21 games.
I’m not really sure how much to read in to the Dolphins’ performance last week. Much like the Eagles before them they were coming up against a seriously banged up 49ers side. Whilst they looked good, you do have to question how much they were aided by a self-sabotaging 49ers offense and a depleted secondary.
This is a pretty big spread considering the Dolphins performances prior to last weekend. Nevertheless, the Jets are quite easily the worst team in the NFL, having scored just seven touchdowns in five games and scoring more than 17 points just once. Even against a bad Cardinals defense last week they managed just 10 points. There is no way I’m willing to lay money with them until I see something different.
Picks: Dolphins -8.5, Under 47
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Point spread: Packers -1
Over/Under: 55
Along with the Browns-Steelers matchup this is one of the games of the weekend for me, with two of the NFC’s top playoff hopefuls squaring off. The Packers are coming off a bye and will be hopeful of extending their unbeaten run, whilst the Bucs need to keep hold of their slender grip of the top spot in the NFC South.
The main concern entering this season was whether Green Bay had enough to function on offense but that looks fine in retrospect. The team ranks second in total yardage per game and leads the league in points scored per game with 38. The issue has been their defense and that is something you can expect a strong Bucs team to challenge.
Tampa Bay were disappointing against the Bears last week but they really should have won that one. I think that they have enough to win this one and I feel like this could be the game where the Packers lacklustre defense is finally exposed.
Picks: Buccaneers +1, Over 55
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 8:20pm ET
Point spread: Rams -3.5
Over/Under: 50
I don’t think anyone saw the NFC West shaping up the way it has. The 49ers looked like they were primed for another run at the Super Bowl, whilst the Rams last season looked a shadow of their former selves. Things have flipped on their heads and the Rams are now 4-1, with the 49ers at the bottom of the division at 2-3.
It has to be said that all of the Rams’ four wins have come against teams from the NFC East, a division making headlines for how horrendously poor it has been to start the season. Nevertheless they have been impressive on both sides of the ball and look like they are beginning to get back to being the team that made the Super Bowl two years ago.
The 49ers have suffered from some of the worst injury luck in recent years but if last week’s capitulation to the Dolphins is anything to go by they are a long way from their best. Their two wins this season have come against the winless Jets and Giants and until we see some drastic improvement there is no way I can take them here.
Picks: Rams -3.5, Under 50
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Monday, 5pm ET
Point spread: Chiefs -5
Over/Under: 57.5
Both teams are coming off surprise losses in Week 5 and will be keen to get things back on track after starting the season 4-0. The Chiefs looked pretty poor against the Raiders last week and despite facing a poor secondary they were unable to get anything from it. Mahomes wasn’t at his best and had multiple turnover-worthy plays.
The Bills were equally underwhelming and after all of the ‘Josh Allen for MVP’ hype they imploded against the Titans. They weren’t helped by having a depleted defense, but even on offense they weren’t able to punch it in when it mattered. Allen wasn’t a disaster but he didn’t look much like the player we’ve come to expect over the last few weeks either.
This should be an interesting game and I think that the Chiefs have enough to get the win. They haven’t been as electric on offense so far this year but I can’t see them losing back-to-back games, something they done just once under Andy Reid. I would take them to cover the spread and think that both teams should put up their fair share of points.
Picks: Chiefs -5, Over 57.5
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 8:15pm ET
Point spread: Cardinals -1
Over/Under: 55.5
With their win over the Giants last week the Cowboys found themselves at the top of the NFC East but it was a bittersweet moment. With the loss of Dak Prescott for the season their playoff chances have taken a hit and with all of their other injuries across the roster they have a tough few weeks ahead.
The Cardinals on the other hand got things back on track last week against the Jets after two back-to-back losses. Kyler Murray continues to delight and frustrate in equal measure and threw his sixth pick of the season last week. This is clearly a team on the rise but they are definitely not yet ready to challenge for the playoffs.
Despite the loss of Dak, I’m taking the Cowboys to beat the spread and win this one. Andy Dalton is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and has more than enough talent to be a capable starter. With all of the weapons he has surrounding him I think they will have too much for Arizona. Given the lack of quality on both defenses this should be a high scoring one too.
Picks: Cowboys +1, Over 55.5