I’m really excited about Week 4. Whether it is the battle between the unbeaten Cardinals and Rams or Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough, it really looks to have everything. Here are my picks against the spread for every game this weekend.
2021 Against the spread record: 28-20
2021 Straight up record: 31-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Things have been tough in Jacksonville this season, but there were signs of improvement last weekend. They held a nine point lead over the Cardinals in the second half, before collapsing on their final few drives. Trevor Lawrence has made headlines for his turnovers, but he has flashed the high end play we expected from him. Cincinnati will be riding high this week after a strong performance against the Steelers last Sunday. They are now at 2-1 and tied for the lead in the AFC North. I would expect the Bengals to win this one, but I think this spread is a little too big for them to cover.
The pick: Jaguars +7.5
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
I don’t think anyone expected the Panthers to be 3-0 atop the NFC South after three weeks, but that is what makes the NFL such an entertaining league. Sam Darnold has looked rejuvenated in Joe Brady’s offense and their defense has been legitimately impressive too. Dallas may not be unbeaten, but they have also looked really impressive through three weeks. I think they have enough in them to snap the Panthers’ winning streak, but Carolina will run them close.
The pick: Panthers +4.5
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (+2)
This game will see Kevin Stefanski return to Minnesota, where he spent 13 years on the coaching staff. He is leading a Browns team that have looked very impressive this season, with their sole loss coming against the Chiefs in a close Week 1 encounter. The Vikings got their first win of the season last week against the Seahawks, pitching a second half shutout in a 30-17 victory. Whilst that performance was impressive, I think it had more to do with a struggling Seahawks offense than it did the Vikings’ defense. I think the Browns should win and cover in this one.
The pick: Browns -2
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)
The Justin Fields era in Chicago got off to a pretty rocky start last weekend. The Bears put in one of the worst offensive displays we have seen in recent years, giving up nine sacks and mustering just 47 yards of offense. It was so bad that Matt Nagy is still refusing to name a starter for Week 4. Things were slightly better in Detroit, who came so close to a big upset against Baltimore. In truth, I think that game made them look better than they are. Baltimore squandered numerous chances, including two dropped touchdowns. I don’t rate either side, but I’m wary of overreacting to last week. I’m taking Chicago to win and cover.
The pick: Bears -3
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
After a slightly shaky start to the season, the Bills and Josh Allen appear to be back to their best. After a 35-0 bludgeoning of Miami, they dominated Washington in a 43-21 victory. The Texans have looked like a different team without Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills continues to have major problems when faced with pressure. That is bad news against a Bills front seven who have generated 63 pressures and six sacks in three games. I have no doubt the Bills will win this one, but a 16-point spread seems a little steep.
The pick: Texans +16.5
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2)
Both of these teams entered 2021 with high expectations, but find themselves at risk of getting left behind in their respective divisions. The Dolphins looked better against the Raiders last week, but continue to struggle on defense. They currently rank 29th in EPA allowed and are giving up over 400 yards per game. Things have been even worse in Indy. Like Miami, they have lost a hitherto reliable defense, and their offense has been one of the most ineffective in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 36% of their red zone drives. I don’t love either side in this one but I’ll take Miami.
The pick: Dolphins -2
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (+7)
The Chiefs find themselves at the foot of the AFC West with a 1-2 record, their first losing record of the Patrick Mahomes era. This makes a great headline, but I’d be wary of overreacting. Both of their losses have come against two of the best teams in the AFC. The Chiefs also put up over 400 yards of offense last week and have scored 92 points through three games. This week they face an Eagles team who looked abject against the Cowboys and appear unable to take advantage of sub-par defenses. I can’t see any way in which this game is at all close and I’m taking the Chiefs as my lock of the week.
The pick: Chiefs -7
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
The 2021 Saints are fast becoming the rollercoaster that the Jameis Winston-led Bucs were for years. They looked elite in Week 1 and terrible in Week 2, before a strong win over the Patriots last weekend. Their offense has struggled more than expected, but they have been able to rely on a solid defense. The Giants have much bigger issues than that and enter this one off the back of a terrible loss to the Falcons. Their offense isn’t taking their chances and they rank 31st in red zone touchdown rate. Their defense will also have some questions to answer after allowing a 15-play, near-nine minute game tying drive last weekend. Even with Jameis’ volatility I think the Saints have too much to lose this.
The pick: Saints -7.5
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (+6.5)
After a rough start in Week 1, the Titans look to be back on track. They sit at 2-1 atop the AFC South after good performances against both the Colts and Seahawks. Since halftime in Week 2 they have outscored their opponents 49-22. In contrast, the Jets haven’t shown any sign of turning things around. If anything, this is a team that are getting worse. They haven’t scored a touchdown through their last two games and have managed just 20 points all season. Zach Wilson has been struggling to adjust to the NFL and leads the league with seven interceptions. I can’t see any reason to pick them in this one.
The pick: Titans -6.5
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Washington were blown out of the water by the Bills last weekend and serious questions are going to be asked about a defense that have allowed 92 points through three games. They currently rank 30th in EPA per play, behind the likes of Jacksonville and the New York Giants. Atlanta will feel buoyed by their win over the Giants, but this offense still has major flaws. Their running game has been one of the least effective in the NFL and they are the only team in the NFL who have not completed a single pass of 20+ yards through three games. Washington are beatable, but I just can’t see this Falcons offense taking advantage of their weaknesses in the secondary.
The pick: Washington -1.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
This is a game I can’t wait to watch. Not only do we get to see two unbeaten divisional rivals battle it out, but we also see a battle between two early MVP favourites. The Cardinals have looked much improved from last season and a lot of that is down to Kyler Murray. The defense has played its part too, and the Cardinals are one of just four teams to rank inside the top ten in offensive and defensive EPA. One of the others is the Rams, who stated their case as the best team in the NFL with a win over the reigning Super Bowl champions last weekend. I expect the Cardinals to put up points, but the Rams are good enough to win and cover.
The pick: Rams -4.5
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
The 49ers came so close to beating the Packers, which would have given them an unbeaten record entering Week 4. Despite missing a number of big names in the backfield, they have held their own offensively and rank seventh in EPA per play so far this season. As for Seattle, I still don’t really know what to make of them. They are clear league leaders in EPA per play through the first half of games, but drop all the way to 28th in the second half. All of that being said, I cannot ignore D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett going up against this 49ers secondary. I expect them to beat the spread and maybe even get the win outright.
The pick: Seahawks +2.5
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1)
Denver have surprised everyone by starting 3-0. Their offense has been solid and their defense looks exceptional, leading the league in EPA per play and allowing just 26 points. That said, their first real test comes this weekend. Their three wins so far have come against the Jags, Giants, and Jets, three teams who combined for just nine wins in 2020. Some may question Baltimore’s chances after a narrow win over Detroit last week, but that game should never have been as close as it was, with the Ravens missing several big chances. Despite respective records I think that Baltimore are the better team and they should win here.
The pick: Ravens +1
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
We are still only three games into the season but it might be time to hit the panic button in Pittsburgh. Nothing is going right for them. They rank 31st in rushing EPA per play and 24th in passing. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that their normally reliable defense ranks 18th in defensive DVOA. Things are the opposite with the Packers, who appear to be going from strength to strength after a shocking loss to the Saints in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers looked great against the 49ers and I fully expect him to take advantage of a depleted Steelers defense this weekend.
The pick: Packers -6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (+7)
There is no escaping the narrative of this game and all of the focus will be on Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough. The matchup that everyone will be watching is between Brady and Bill Belichick and it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top. When looking at this from each team’s perspective though, there isn’t nearly as much of a contest. The Bucs are head and shoulders above this Patriots team and I would fully expect them to show that this weekend. I’m taking the Bucs to win and cover the spread.
The pick: Buccaneers -7
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Somehow this game has turned it to an early battle for supremacy in the AFC West. The Raiders are unbeaten through three weeks and have put in clutch performances against three very talented opponents. Derek Carr looks to be playing the best football of his career and this offense should give Brandon Staley plenty of problems. As for the Chargers, they will be confident after a win over the Chiefs in Week 3. Justin Herbert still looks great, and their defense is playing really effective football. The Raiders’ run may end this weekend, but I think whatever happens it will be a close affair.
The pick: Raiders +3