Week 1 can often spring a few surprises and this year was no different. With big upsets from Jacksonville and Washington, preseason predictions look like they are already being turned on their heads. Nevertheless it is important not to overreact to the opening weekend and only time will tell which teams are the real deal.
I managed to go 9-6-1 against the spread in Week 1 and 11-5 straight up, so it is probably all downhill from now on. Here are my picks and predictions for Week 2.
Against the spread record: 9-6-1
Straight up record: 11-5
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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Thursday 8:20pm ET
Point spread: Browns -6
Over/Under: 43
The Browns opened the season in typical fashion and have now lost 20 of their last 22 opening games. Whilst I expected them to lose against the Ravens, I didn’t expect them to manage just six points all game and the scale of that defeat came as a surprise. Things don’t look good off the field either, with reports that they are shopping Odell Beckham.
The Bengals on the other hand were a field goal away from taking the Chargers to overtime and whilst this isn’t saying much given the quality of opposition they were up against, they showed some early signs of encouragement. Burrow grew into the game and their defense looked particularly impressive.
It is difficult to get a handle on where either of these teams are right now after just one game. I’m wary of buying into the negativity surrounding the Browns but I saw enough from the Bengals in Week 1 to take them here. The Browns should probably run out as eventual winners but this should be closer than six points.
Picks: Bengals +6, Over 43
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Cowboys -4.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Despite high hopes entering the season, both teams under-delivered in Week 1 and will be keen to get back to winning ways this Sunday. This isn’t a game I’m particularly keen on betting. The Falcons have a tendency to do the unexpected and they are one of the more volatile teams in the NFL from a betting standpoint. Julio Jones is doubtful too and whether or not he plays will have a big bearing on the result.
I’m not quite sure what the Cowboys did in Week 1 to deserve the 4.5 point spread. Whilst they were close to beating the Rams their offense didn’t live up to all of the preseason hype and it could take a while for Mike McCarthy’s system to gel.
I think this will be one of the more interesting games of Week 2 and if I had to pick I would lean towards the Falcons beating the spread. There are plenty of holes on this Dallas defense, particularly in their secondary. Even though I think Dallas may scrape the win, the Falcons should run them close.
Picks: Falcons +4.5, Under 52.5
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Bills -5.5
Over/Under: 41
I’m genuinely surprised that the Bills are just 5.5 point favourites here. They looked good in their win over the Jets last week and I can’t see the Dolphins offering much after their lacklustre showing against the Patriots. Miami’s defense struggled to defend the run all game and the Bills have enough weapons on the ground to cause plenty of problems.
Things don’t look much better through the air for Miami either. The Dolphins secondary struggled to cover a poor New England receiving corps and the Bills receivers are on a different level. Josh Allen is coming off his first game with over 300 yards passing and I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up similar numbers against the Dolphins.
Miami always seem to manage a couple of divisional upsets each year but at the risk of looking foolish I can’t see anything other than a comfortable Bills victory happening on Sunday. This is one of the lowest totals of the week and I would expect the over the hit pretty comfortably too.
Picks: Bills -5.5, Over 41
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Buccaneers -9
Over/Under: 47.5
Everyone seems to have piled onto the Bucs after their loss in Week 1 and reports of a rift between Brady and Bruce Arians have already surfaced. Whilst they were definitely underwhelming and Brady looked a little rusty this looks like a classic case of an overreaction after just 60 minutes of football against one of the best teams in the NFL.
This week they have a great opportunity to silence critics and they should be confident of beating a poor Panthers team. Chris Godwin looks like he could be out but they can expect a much better showing from Mike Evans who managed just two yards against the Saints.
This is one of the biggest spreads of the week but I think that the Bucs should cover. I’m not expecting much from the Panthers this season and people seem to be forgetting how good this Tampa Bay defense can be. If they can click on offense this could be over by halftime.
Picks: Bucs -9, Under 47.5
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Steelers -7.5
Over/Under: 41.5
The Steelers were my lock of the week against the Giants in Week 1 and they duly delivered. I would expect them to deliver again in Week 2 against a depleted Broncos roster. The list of those with injuries or limited practice reps is too long to list and Denver are looking thin on offense, with question marks over Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay, and Garrett Boles.
I would expect the Steelers to make the most of this and their defense is going to cause Drew Lock a tonne of problems. The final score against the Titans didn’t reflect Denver’s performance and if Stephen Gostkowski hadn’t missed four kicks it would have been a comfortable double digt victory.
Unfortunately for the Broncos the Steelers are a better team than Tennessee and I think they should cover the spread fairly comfortably. Taking the over at just 41.5 looks like one of the better over/under bets this week too.
Picks: Steelers -7.5, Over 41.5
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Packers -6
Over/Under: 49
The Packers were one of the surprises of Week 1 as they put up a league-best 43 points against the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers was particularly impressive and despite the lack of offseason offensive additions, they looked solid at receiver.
The Lions will be entering this game from a completely different angle after surrendering a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter against the Bears. One of the concerns entering this season was Detroit’s coverage unit and how they would cope without Darius Slay and if last week was anything to go by it isn’t great.
Rodgers feasted on an inexperienced Vikings secondary in Week 1 and I would expect a similar performance against the Lions this weekend. In all honesty I think the Lions are better than they looked in Week 1 and the Packers are not quite as good as they’ve been hyped, but I would still take them to cover here. Despite the points put up by both teams last week I would also look at the under here.
Picks: Packers -6, Under 49
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Titans -9
Over/Under: 43
Nobody saw the Jags win in Week 1 coming and Minshew Mania looks like it is back in full swing already. Don’t read too much into the final result though. Whilst Minshew was very efficient against the Colts, the Jags as a whole weren’t great. They managed a total of 241 yards of offense all game and benefited massively from a Colts team that gave them short fields twice, missed a field goal and field to convert a 4th and 1 on the Jags’ three yard line.
The Titans on the other hand only just overcame the Broncos on Monday night after Stephen Gostokowski left 10 points on the table with missed kicks. They are clearly a better team than the Jags, but then again so were the Colts and Jacksonville still managed to get the win.
A nine point spread is too big considering the Titans’s lacklustre offense in Week 1 and although I think they will probably make it 2-0 this weekend I would be inclined to take the Jags from a spread perspective. This is another game that I will probably avoid though as I’m not willing to put any trust in this Jacksonville team.
Picks: Jaguars +9, Over 43
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Rams -1
Over/Under: 46
I think that this game has the potential to be one of the better bets this weekend. The Rams are riding high after their Week 1 win over Dallas, whilst the Eagles were perhaps the biggest disappointment in the opening slate against Washington.
Carson Wentz struggled all game, with two interceptions and a CPOE of -10.3, the second worst in Week 1. The big problem the Eagles had against Washington was their depleted offensive line coming up against a good pass-rush. Things won’t get much better this week as they will have to deal with Aaron Donald after he managed to post 10 total pressures against the Cowboys.
Their defense looked poor and you can’t get away from the fact they allowed Washington to put up 27 points unanswered. If Dwayne Haskins had taken his chances it could have been even more and whilst I have my reservations about Jared Goff, he should be more clinical and I would take the Rams to win this one.
Picks: Rams -1, Over 46
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Colts -3
Over/Under: 48.5
Last week we watched a wily veteran quarterback tear apart this inexperienced Vikings secondary. In Week 2 we may just see a repeat performance. Whilst the Colts somehow managed to lose the Jaguars in their opener I wouldn’t buy into that result too much.
The Colts were better than the result would suggest and Rivers on the whole looked pretty solid in his Indianapolis debut. He finished the game with 363 yards and a CPOE of 7.7 and he was able to get the ball out quickly, with an average time to throw of just 2.34 seconds. If the Vikings performance in Week 1 showed anything it was their struggles against Green Bay’s quick passing game and Rivers could take advantage of this on Sunday.
Add to this the fact that the Vikings’ depleted defensive front that combined for just five total pressures last week will be coming up against one of the best offensive lines in the league. I think this could be a high scoring affair and I would expect the Colts to bounce back from their Week 1 disappointment and cover here.
Picks: Colts -3, Over 48.5
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Bears -5.5
Over/Under: 42
There are a few games this week that I wouldn’t go near from a betting perspective and this is one. Trubisky garnered the headlines after leading the Bears to a comeback win over the Lions, but I still would not be comfortable taking him as a 5.5 point favourite.
The Giants were equally underwhelming in their loss to the Steelers and I think that 2020 could be a tough season for them. Their offensive line was atrocious and posted a PFF pass-blocking grade of just 27.3, the worst in Week 1. They allowed 20 total pressures and I would expect Khalil Mack and the rest of Chicago’s front seven to be a persistent problem.
I don’t trust either team to deliver at the skill positions and this is a game that will be won and lost in the trenches. If I had to pick I would lean towards the Giants as Daniel Jones is the better quarterback and I can’t rely on Trubisky to win by 5.5 points. Given the underwhelming offenses on offer I would probably look at the under here, but in all honesty I wouldn’t go near this game.
Picks: Giants +5.5, Under 42
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: 49ers -7
Over/Under: 42.5
I took the Cardinals last week against the 49ers and they duly delivered with an unexpected 24-20 victory. I would expect a statement performance this week from San Francisco as they will look to get back to winning ways against the Jets.
Much like their New York neighbours, the Jets look really poor on the offensive line once again. Against the Bills they allowed 21 total pressures and this week they will be coming up against one of the most dominant defensive lines in football.
Their defense was poor too, becoming the first team to give up over 300 yards passing to Josh Allen in his career. There really isn’t much to be optimistic about with the Jets and despite a raft of injury concerns, I don’t think the 49ers will have any issue covering here. I’ll take this game as my lock of the week. As for the total I’d go with the over if George Kittle plays. If not I’d steer clear.
Picks: 49ers -7, Over 42.5
Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Point spread: Cardinals -6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
These two teams are both coming off surprise fourth quarterback comebacks in Week 1, but I don’t think either of them were as impressive as their results may suggest. Washington managed to secure the victory over the Eagles thanks to a solid defensive performance but Dwayne Haskins was poor throughout, missing open receivers and finishing with a CPOE of -12.4, the worst total of the weekend.
The Cardinals had an excellent result too, although their offense was ineffective for most of the game. They had just one 40+ yard drive until the fourth quarter and their longest drive of the day was helped by over 30 yards of penalties against the 49ers defense.
I think the Cardinals are clearly the better team here, although I would expect Washington’s defensive line to cause problems for Kyler Murray. The Cardinals should probably get the win, but I’ve not seen enough from them to be worth a 6.5 point spread and would take Washington in this one. Given how underwhelming both offenses were I think it will finish under 47.5 too.
Picks: Washington +6.5, Under 47.5
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Point spread: Ravens -7
Over/Under: 50.5
I took the Ravens to cover the spread last week but I didn’t expect them to beat the Browns by 32 points. Part of that has to be put down to Cleveland’s offensive incompetence, but the Ravens were legitimately impressive. They face a tougher opponent on Sunday but I would still be pretty confident of them securing another win.
One of the most noticeable takeaways from the Texans performance in Week 1 was their inability to stop the run. Clyde Edwards Helaire averaged over five yards per carry in his NFL debut and I would expect the Ravens running backs to put up similar numbers.
This will be a tougher test for Baltimore and looks like one of the most interesting games in Week 2. Two of the league’s best young quarterbacks should put on a good show but I think Baltimore should just about cover the spread. Given the strength of Baltimore’s defense and Houston’s effectiveness at slowing down the Chiefs last week I would take the under here.
Picks: Ravens -7, Under 50.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Point spread: Chiefs -8.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Both of these teams enter Week 2 with a win under their belts but they did so in entirely different fashions. The Chiefs’ victory against the Texans never really looked in doubt, whilst the Chargers only managed a win over the Bengals thanks to a last minute missed field goal.
There aren’t many teams that I would favour at 8.5 point favourites but the Chiefs are an exception to that rule. They have won 11 of the past 12 meetings between the two teams and I fully expect them to make it 12 of 13 on Sunday.
The spread is big but the Chiefs beat the Texans by 14 points and they are a much better team than the Chargers. It looked like they were coasting for much of the game against Houston and I think there is a lot more to come from this offense. I’m expecting a big game from Mahomes and I think there should be a tonne of points in this one.
Picks: Chiefs -8.5, Over 47.5
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 8:25pm ET
Point spread: Seahawks -4
Over/Under: 45
This looks like another interesting game. The Patriots looked good last weekend but that was against the Dolphins. The Seahawks represent a completely different level of competition and I think that this will be a much better test of Cam Newton and this new-look offense.
Seattle fans and neutrals alike will be hoping they stick with the passing game that was so effective against the Falcons. The Seahawks averaged 0.55 EPA per pass play and were the most pass-happy team on first and second down in Week 1. The Patriots coverage unit has traditionally been one of the best in the league and it will be interesting to see whether Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer stick with Wilson or revert to their run-heavy offense.
I think Seattle should win and cover here. If they get ahead the Patriots can’t keep running the ball and I don’t think they have enough weapons in the passing game to play catch up.
Picks: Seahawks -4, Over 45
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 8:15pm ET
Point spread: Saints -5.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Not many teams can score 34 points and look rusty whilst doing so, but the Saints weren’t entirely convincing in Week 1. Drew Brees wasn’t great and with Michael Thomas now out for several weeks there will be questions about how this offense can function moving forward.
The Raiders on the other hand impressed in Week 1 and they looked good on offense. Having said that, this was against a Panthers team who are amongst the weakest in the NFL and I would be wary of taking too much from that result.
I think that the Raiders will be competitive but the Saints should just about cover. Whilst their offense has its issues, they still have plenty of weapons with Sanders, Cook and Kamara all likely beneficiaries in Michael Thomas’ absence. Their defense is pretty reliable too and I think they will edge this one out.
Picks: Saints -5.5, Under 49.5