The final weekend of the regular season is here and it looks set to be a great one. There are still seven playoff spots to play for and some huge games to keep an eye on. I went 7-8-1 last week, but my two picks of the week (Steelers and Bucs) both paid out. Here are my picks and predictions for Week 17.
2020 Against the spread record: 120-108-10
2020 Straight up record: 161-76-1
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)
It has been another disappointing season for the Falcons. A loss here would see them finish at the foot of the NFC South for the first time since 2007. They have now lost four on the bounce, including their collapse against the Bucs that saw them surrender a 17 point lead. Tampa Bay were rolling last week and it looks like this offense could be hitting its potential. Brady is currently ranked as PFF’s second highest graded quarterback behind Aaron Rodgers and he should get plenty of chances against this Falcons secondary. Atlanta rank 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and I don’t think this will be as close as the last one. The Bucs still have everything to play for and it should be a strong showing.
The pick: Buccaneers -7
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+13)
The AFC playoff race is sure to make exciting viewing this weekend. Baltimore are one of five teams at 10-5, with only four playoff spots remaining. They’ve hit their stride at the right time, averaging 37 points per game since Week 13. In that period they have jumped to second in EPA per play behind only the Bucs. The Bengals have nothing to play for, but they won’t make it easy for their division rivals. They are coming off two surprise wins, with their defense looking much improved. Through their last four games the defense rank first in rushing EPA and this will be the area to watch. I like Baltimore to win, but I think the Bengals might beat the spread.
The pick: Bengals +13
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+1)
Both of the NFC East games this weekend should make interesting viewing. The Cowboys and Giants can both make the playoffs with a win and a Washington loss in the later window. Dallas have come out of nowhere to win three straight games and find themselves improbably in playoff contention. Their defense has improved and Andy Dalton is finally getting this offense going. The Giants have it all to play for too, but things haven’t been going well. All of the buzz surrounding them seems to have dissipated after three underwhelming losses. They’ve scored just 26 points through their last three games and haven’t scored 20+ since Week 10. Their defense remains stout, but I don’t think it is enough to get them a win here.
The pick: Cowboys -1
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3)
Miami have been legitimately impressive this season, but their quarterback situation has dominated the headlines. Tua continues to struggle but there will be no Fitzpatrick to provide relief this week, as he has tested positive for COVID-19. The Bills looked dominant against the Patriots last week, putting in one of the most complete performances of the season. Their place in the playoffs is secured and they are AFC East champions for the first time since 1995. A win here would seal the No. 2 seed, though that doesn’t carry the weight it used to. I’m confident that Buffalo will win this one, particularly if they start Josh Allen. Miami’s defense will keep things close, but I haven’t seen enough from Tua to take the Dolphins at this spread.
The pick: Bills -3
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7)
This is the first of a number of dead rubber games. Neither team has playoff position to contend for, nor are they set to be picking near the top of the draft. The Vikings defense had begun to show signs of improvement through recent weeks, before falling apart at the hands of Drew Brees and the Saints. Mike Zimmer called out his team, saying this is the worst defense he has coached. Detroit were in a similar position, though their loss to the Bucs was even more bleak, losing Stafford and finishing the game with third stringer David Blough under center. Stafford looks likely to play in what could be his last game for the Lions. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook. If Stafford is playing I think Detroit beat the spread.
The pick: Lions +7
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)
The Jets might not have the No. 1 overall pick, but they’ve got the next best thing and have the second pick sewn up already. They pulled off another surprise win against the Browns last week and were utterly dominant for much of the first half. They were aided by a dearth of Cleveland receivers and a depleted offensive line, but they looked strong on defense. Their ability to limit the running game was impressive, allowing just 45 yards on 18 carries. The Patriots were abject in their loss to the Bills, scoring just nine points all game. Cam Newton was benched again, although Bill Belichick has dismissed the idea of starting Jarrett Stidham. Their offense remains one dimensional and ineffective, whilst their defense has been nothing more than average. I’ve taken the Jets against the spread in each of the last four weeks and I’m sticking with them here.
The pick: Jets +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-9)
With their playoff place confirmed, the Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph in this one. They pulled off an incredible comeback against the Colts last week, but it is difficult to ignore the issues facing this Pittsburgh team. Their defense remains elite (1st in DVOA, 2nd in EPA) but their offense has been pitiful through the last few weeks. Since Week 12, they rank 31st in EPA per play, ahead of only the New England Patriots. The Browns haven’t been great of late either and they will want to forget last week’s loss to the Jets. They can guarantee a playoff spot for the first time since 2002 with a win here. Cleveland should win, but a depleted offensive line won’t help against this Steelers defense and I’m taking Pittsburgh to beat the spread.
The pick: Steelers +9
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (+3)
This looks set to be one of the games of the week. The Rams are in the playoffs with either a win or a Bears loss, whilst the Cardinals need to win to secure their place. Injuries will impact this one greatly. Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp are out for the Rams, whilst Kyler Murray is set to play despite a leg injury. The Cardinals will have their work cut out against one of the NFL’s best defenses and they will need to show more than they did last week against a depleted 49ers team. That said, if Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are playing I can’t see them losing to a John Wolford led Rams team.
The pick: Cardinals -3
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5)
This is another game that looks set to deliver plenty of excitement. The Packers are the No. 1 seeds, but need a win to ensure they keep the top spot and get a bye next week. They are coming off perhaps their best performance of the season, a dominant 40-14 win over the Titans. They looked predictably strong on offense, whilst their defense did a great job of limiting Derrick Henry on the ground. The Bears are still improbably in the playoff picture and can secure their place with a win. Their offense has been on fire in recent weeks, scoring 30+ points in four straight games for the first time since 1965. That said, three of those games were against the Texans, Jags, and Lions whose defenses rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd in EPA respectively. The Packers should win this one comfortably.
The pick: Packers -5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14)
It has been a dire season for the Jags, but it may all have been worth it for the chance to take Trevor Lawrence in the draft. Their defense has been a liability, whilst their offense hasn’t been much better. James Robinson has been the exception, but he will miss this game with an ankle injury. The Colts still have plenty to play for, and can secure their place in the playoffs with a win and a loss from another 10-5 team. Their collapse against Pittsburgh will have hurt, but they showed in the first half why many consider them to be amongst the best teams in the AFC. The Jags actually won this matchup in Week 1, their only win this season. I’m not expecting a repeat and I don’t think it will even be close. This is a big spread but the Colts should cover.
The pick: Colts -14
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)
Everyone was looking forward to a rematch between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes, but we will have to wait until next season. With their playoff place secured, the Chiefs are set to bench their quarterback, along with several other offensive stars. With Chad Henne the starter in Kansas City, the Chargers find themselves as favourites. Justin Herbert has been excellent this season, and another big game could see him break the record for rookie passing yards. The Chargers should win, but my lack of confidence in Anthony Lynn leaves me taking the Chiefs to beat the spread.
The pick: Chiefs +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (+3)
Another AFC West dead rubber matchup. Neither team can make the playoffs, with the only thing left to play for being draft capital. The Raiders have looked much better on offense this season and Derek Carr’s job looks safe. The defense has been abysmal though, ranking 28th in DVOA and 29th in EPA. Denver’s biggest offseason question will be at quarterback. The Drew Lock experiment has failed and he ranks 31st in quarterback efficiency rating, behind the likes of Nick Foles and Cam Newton. I have my concerns about the Raiders, but I don’t think this Broncos team can take advantage of their weaknesses.
The pick: Raiders -3
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6)
The Saints still have everything to play for, but will have to do it without Drew Brees’ biggest weapons. Michael Thomas will miss the game with an ankle injury, while Alvin Kamara has tested positive for COVID-19. They looked excellent against the Vikings, but concerns about Drew Brees’ effectiveness remain. For the Panthers, this is a meaningless game but they will want to get one over on their divisional rivals. They have been tougher than their 5-10 record would suggest, and they haven’t lost by more than one score since Week 10. I think the Saints should win and I think they should just about cover despite their injuries.
The pick: Saints -6
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+7)
Seattle have continued to win and that has distracted from Russell Wilson’s worrying decline. Through Weeks 1-8 he ranked 1st in PFF grade, 2nd in EPA per play, 2nd in deep passing yards, and 4th in yards per attempt. Since Week 9 he has dropped to 17th, 25th, 15th, and 20th in each of these respective categories. They can still get the No. 1 overall seed with help from elsewhere, but the 49ers won’t make things easy. Since Week 9 their defense ranks fifth in EPA per play and they’ve shown the ability to deliver wins in tough games. I think Seattle should win, but the 49ers will take this down to the wire.
The pick: 49ers +7
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+7.5)
The Titans can guarantee their place in the playoffs with a win here and will want to put last week’s performance against the Packers behind them. They were totally outclassed on both sides of the ball and a normally reliant offense stuttered throughout. They get a more favourable matchup this weekend and face a Texans defense that ranks 30th in rushing DVOA. Derrick Henry has gone for 200+ yards in his last two games against Houston and should have another big game here. Their defense is a major problem though and Deshaun Watson will be able to exploit it. The Titans should win this one, but I’m banking on Watson keeping things close.
The pick: Texans +7.5
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
I still don’t understand how this is one of the games with playoff implications. Washington can secure the NFC East title with a win here, but it is still not clear who will be at quarterback. Alex Smith remains questionable, and if he can’t make it they will have Taylor Heinecke under center. The Eagles are the only team in the division who aren’t in playoff contention. I will be interested to see how Jalen Hurts performs against a tough Washington defense. A big game could secure his future at starter, whereas a poor one may see them considering a quarterback in the first round. Washington should win, but if Alex Smith is out I’m not betting on this one.
The pick: Washington -3.5