We’re almost at the end of the regular season. We had a full slate of games in Week 16 and six division titles have now been secured. The Jags are now guaranteed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, whilst the Chiefs managed to edge past the Falcons to secure the top seed in the AFC. Here are the biggest takeaways and talking points from Week 16 in the NFL.
Jags secure No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft
It seemed impossible that anyone other than the Jets would end up with the No. 1 overall pick. Yet, with back-to-back wins over the Rams and Browns, they have gifted it to a very grateful Jacksonville Jaguars. This almost guarantees that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be landing in Duval County come April.
It is rare that a prospect like Lawrence comes through in the draft. Many think he is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, perhaps since Peyton Manning. Had he been eligible last year, he would likely have been selected ahead of Joe Burrow. The Jags also hold the Rams’ first round pick and a projected $84 million in cap space in 2021, the most in the NFL.
Securing a player like Lawrence is a big win for the franchise, but that is only the start of a much-needed rebuild. It was clear from their 41-17 loss to a Trubisky-led Bears that this team needs a tonne of help on both sides of the ball. After Week 16, the offense ranks 27th in EPA per play, whilst the defense sits 31st. Add to this their position in a really tough AFC South, and it could be a long time until this team is competitive again.
Steelers clinch AFC North with improbable comeback
Pittsburgh’s collapse has been the big story of the last few weeks. It looked for all the world that they would make it four games without a win this weekend, trailing 24-7 in the third quarter against the Colts. Out of nowhere the team managed to find its groove, pulling off an incredible comeback to win 28-24. This was the first 17+ point second half comeback in the Mike Tomlin era, and it secured the AFC North title for the first time since 2017.
The win will undoubtedly settle some nerves in Pittsburgh after a tough run of games. Yet the final result shouldn’t distract from the same problems that reared their heads again. Pittsburgh was utterly unable to run the ball, finishing with 20 yards on 14 carries. Since Week 13 the team ranks 32nd in rushing EPA per play (-0.352), well below the 31st ranked Detroit Lions (-0.274).
Despite his fourth quarter heroics, Big Ben is also a concern and an underwhelming passing game can only take them so far in the postseason. As much as their defense has impressed, it won’t be enough to get them past the top teams in the playoffs. The comeback will certainly lift spirits, but the underlying flaws in this team remain the same.
Packers bulldoze Titans as Rodgers states MVP credentials
The game between Green Bay and Tennessee looked like it would be a close contest with shootout potential. In the end it was utterly one-sided, as the Packers breezed past the previously 10-4 Titans in a snowy game at Lambeau Field. With the exception of a couple of plays it was a near perfect performance from the Packers in every aspect of the game.
They contained a Titans offense that led the league in EPA per play entering Week 16. Derrick Henry was held to 98 yards on his 23 carries, breaking a run of nine consecutive 100+ yard road games. The much-maligned Packers run defense didn’t allow him a single run over 10 yards all game. Their coverage was excellent too, as Tannehill passed for just 121 yards with two picks. Coming into the game Tannehill led the NFL in quarterback efficiency – this weekend he ranked dead last at 35th.
The weather was clearly a factor but didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. They put up 234 rushing yards, with rookie A.J. Dillon having a breakout game. Rodgers threw for four touchdowns and with another lacklustre Mahomes performance looks to be the sure-fire favourite in the MVP race. The Packers can seal the No. 1 seed with a win next week against the Bears and look like a strong contender for the Super Bowl.
Fourth quarter Fitzmagic gives Miami the win
This game was pretty dull until late in the fourth quarter. Neither team were great on offense and Brian Flores benched Tua with the team trailing 16-13 in the fourth quarter. His inability to push the ball downfield is becoming an increasing problem and he accounted for just 94 yards on his 22 passes. He attempted just four passes of 10+ yards all game, leaving the Dolphins defense reliant on quick passes underneath and screens to running backs.
Fitzpatrick changed everything, with 182 yards on three drives at an average of 14 yards per attempt. The game sprung into life with the two teams combining for 22 points in the final four minutes. His final drive to get the Dolphins into field goal range as time expired will be the biggest story from this game. That said, the importance of Jon Gruden’s play calling shouldn’t be understated. Not only did he settle for a field goal and a two point lead, he also missed an opportunity to run out the clock on their final drive.
The Dolphins are improbable playoff candidates, but Tua’s inconsistency needs to be addressed. This kind of performance will only increase the calls for Fitzpatrick to start in Week 17. As much as Flores’ multi-quarterback appraoch has worked so far, this is not a long term solution. Tua ranks 27th in quarterback efficiency so far this season, behind the likes of Gardner Minshew and Mitchell Trubisky. He’s still got plenty of time to improve, but these early signs are far from encouraging.
Crazy NFC East season continues
The NFC East has been the butt of all jokes this season. It has entertained us, but for all the wrong reasons. This weekend it was confirmed that it would deliver the first sub .500 division winner since 2014. Philadelphia’s loss to the Cowboys rules them out of playoff contention, but the other three teams are improbably still in contention.
Washington could have locked up the division with a win against Carolina, but fell to a 20-13 defeat. Dwayne Haskins has since been released by Washington, only two years into his professional career. He looked poor and was benched in this one for former XFL backup Taylor Heinecke. Washington remain in control though and can secure the division with a win over the Eagles next week. That said, none of these teams really deserve a home playoff game.
Washington, the Cowboys, and the Giants all got off to a 2-7 start to the season. Whichever one of them secures the NFC East will become the first team in the Super Bowl era to start a season 2-7 and make the playoffs. For context, 258 teams have started 2-7 since 1966. It is difficult to see any of NFC East teams winning a playoff game, but stranger things have certainly happened.
Week 16 MVP
Alvin Kamara – There really was no other candidate for this week’s MVP award. Kamara had a monster game against the Vikings, with 155 yards on 22 attempts. This was his first 100+ yard rushing game since Week 4 of 2018. Most impressive was his six rushing touchdowns. Kamara matched the NFL record, set by Ernie Nevers way back in 1929. If Sean Payton hadn’t given a goal line carry to Taysom Hill he would have easily made it seven.
Stat of the week
130 – Despite a slightly underwhelming season, the Ravens lead the NFL in point differential at +130. This puts them two points ahead of the Chiefs. In the last 25 years no team has led the NFL in point differential in back-to-back seasons.