It seems crazy to think that we have already reached the penultimate weekend of the regular season. It was an odd week last week as I went 6-7-3 against the spread. I’m still over .500 for the season though and I think there are some good spreads on offer this weekend. The Steelers at +1.5 and Bucs at -9.5 are amongst the best bets of the slate.
2020 Against the spread record: 113-100-9
2020 Straight up record: 152-69-1
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
The Vikings looked to be hitting their stride before stumbling against the Bears last week. The most concerning aspect of that result was Minnesota’s run defense. The Bears have struggled to run the ball all season, ranking 24th in rushing DVOA, yet had a field day against the Vikings defense. David Montgomery had a career-high 146 yards on 32 carries, and that sets alarm bells ringing with Alvin Kamara on the horizon. That said, the Saints looked sluggish last weekend, with Drew Brees looking rusty on his return. Whilst the offense isn’t on top form, their defense ranks fifth in EPA per play and fourth in pressure rate. This will cause problems for Kirk Cousins and they should contain Dalvin Cook better than most. I’m expecting a Saints win but I don’t think they’ve got enough at the moment to pull away.
The pick: Vikings +6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+9.5)
The story of Week 15 will be the Bucs’ comeback against the Falcons. The final result masks an erratic performance though and the offense was atrocious in the first half. They punted on their first four drives, combining for just 61 total yards. They seemed to flip a switch in the second half and Brady was lights out, throwing for over 300 yards. There was no cause for optimism in Detroit however. The Lions were soundly beaten by the Titans, giving up 46 points and an astonishing 0.499 EPA per play. Their defense ranks amongst the worst in the NFL in almost every relevant category. That doesn’t fill you with confidence with a game against Tom Brady on the horizon. The Bucs can be inconsistent, but I still think they are the best bet in this one.
The pick: Buccaneers -9.5
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The 49ers are on a tough run. Since their enforced move to Arizona, they have lost three games on the bounce. Last week’s performance against Dallas was perhaps the most disappointing and they’ve now been ruled out of the playoffs altogether. The Cardinals on the other hand have plenty to play for. At 8-6 they are two games behind Seattle in the NFC North and would make the playoffs if the season ended today. They admittedly came close to squandering a 16-0 lead over the Eagles last week, but Kyler Murray looks to be back to full health. Their newfound pass rush is a pleasant surprise too, with 54 pressures in their last two games. The 49ers rank 25th in PFF pass-blocking grade this season and I think they could struggle here.
The pick: Cardinals -5
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (+3)
I don’t think anyone could have predicted that the Dolphins would be the team keeping the Ravens out of playoff contention entering Week 16. They delivered another strong performance against the Patriots last weekend and their defense continues to impress. The Raiders on the other hand have now lost four of their last five, their sole win coming as a result of Gregg William’s infamous zero blitz with the Jets. Derek Carr looks like he’ll start in this one, but it is their defense that gives me cause for concern. Luckily for them, they face a Dolphins offense that has been nothing more than mediocre this season. Vegas should keep this one close.
The pick: Raiders +3
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
What is left to say about this Falcons team? They delight and frustrate in equal measure and embody the phrase ‘consistently inconsistent’. They gave up a 17 point halftime lead last weekend, the third time they’ve led a 15+ point lead slip this season. That doesn’t bode well for a game against the Chiefs who moved to 13-1 last weekend. Even with their offense struggling for much of the game against the Saints they still managed to put up 32 points. That said, they have been unable to convincingly close out games for some time and it is a concern. They’ve averaged a winning margin of four points through their last six games and none of them were by double digits. Kansas City should win and be the better team, but the Falcons can keep it within the spread.
The pick: Falcons +10.5
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team (-1)
The Panthers enter this game on a three game losing streak, with one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Through Week 15 they rank 26th in EPA per play and 27th in DVOA. There is only so far an offensive helmed by Teddy Bridgewater can carry this team. Things don’t get any easier this weekend against a tough Washington team who are improbable playoff candidates in the NFC East. Their offense remains limited, but they are a tough team to break down and they make life hard on opposing quarterbacks. I’m not expecting this to be a great game but I think Washington should edge it. They are one of the NFL’s best defenses at limiting yards after the catch and that will make things difficult for the Panthers.
The pick: Washington -1
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)
What is going on with Chicago? After the near-abandonment of Mitchell Trubisky, it looks like the Bears could consider re-signing him for 2021 and beyond. Whilst that would be an obvious overreaction, their offense has looked better in recent weeks. They’ve now posted 30+ points in three straight games for the first time since 2013, and look to finally have an effective running game. The Jags haven’t been subject to the same scrutiny as the Jets, but they’ve been really poor this season. The one bonus is they are now in prime position to draft Trevor Lawrence. I feel like they could play this closer than many are expecting though.
The pick: Jaguars +7.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-7.5)
2020 might be something of a write-off for this Bengals team, but their upset over the Steelers will live long in the memory. It says a lot about how the betting markets view Cincinnati and Pittsburgh that they enter as 7.5 point underdogs to a 4-10 Texans team. Houston kept things close with the Colts once again last week, losing by just a single score. Deshaun Watson is having a career year, ranking 2nd in CPOE and 8th in EPA per play this season, but the rest of the team have been a problem. This is a big spread for a team with a 4-10 record, but I think Watson will have some great opportunities against this Bengals defense.
The pick: Texans -7.5
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (+9.5)
The Browns find themselves at 10-4 and Baker Mayfield seems to have turned a corner. Since Week 7 he is PFF’s highest graded quarterback and leads the NFL in EPA per play. Whether or not he can sustain his current level of form will be the biggest question, but they look like one of the league’s best offenses right now. The Jets quarterback questions have only increased since their win last weekend. They looked good against the Rams and impressed on both sides of the ball. Whatever the future holds for this team, it has been clear for a while that they are playing to win. They aren’t a good team but they are better than their 1-13 record would suggest. The Browns should win here, but I’m taking the Jets to cover.
The pick: Jets +9.5
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
The Colts continue to impress and enter this matchup on a three game winning streak. Philip Rivers has been solid and their defense is strong, ranking sixth in DVOA and tenth in EPA per play. They might not be the flashiest of teams, but they keep getting results. The same can’t be said for the Steelers. After an 11-0 start they have now lost three on the bounce, two of which were against teams with losing records. They are being held back by their offense and Big Ben’s inability to push the ball downfield is a growing problem. That said, they still have a defense that ranks first in DVOA and second in EPA per play. They may not have been as good as their 11-0 start, but neither are they as bad as their three game losing run would suggest. Philip Rivers struggles under pressure and I can see the Steelers making life difficult for him.
The pick: Steelers +1.5
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
Things had started to look up for the Giants, with four straight wins. They remain in contention for the NFC East, but the last few weeks haven’t been easy, losing their last two games by a combined 46-13. As much as their defense has impressed (9th in EPA per play since Week 9), their offense has been a shambles, regardless of who has been under center. In contrast, the Ravens seem to be hitting their best run of form just when it matters. They are just outside the playoffs at the moment, but I think the best is still ahead. The Giants are a decent run defense, but nobody is stopping a Baltimore offense averaging 6.5 yards per carry through their last three games
The pick: Ravens -10
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
I think it is fair to say that the Broncos should be considering their options at quarterback this offseason. The Drew Lock experiment hasn’t worked and he ranks 31st in quarterback efficiency, ahead of only Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz. They struggled again last weekend against the Bills and an efficient defense can only take them so far. In contrast, the Chargers seem to have found their quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert. In all honesty, Herbert’s performances this season may have saved Anthony Lynn’s job, and there appears to be some optimism surrounding this franchise despite their record. Denver’s defense will give Herbert a difficult game, but I can’t rely on this Broncos offense and Drew Lock to keep pace.
The pick: Chargers -3
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1)
As impressive as the Rams have been this season it is difficult to overlook last week’s loss to the Jets. Their offensive limitations were evident throughout and they’ll need to be better to have any chance of keeping up with the Seahawks. The Rams are just one game behind Seattle in the NFC North and there is still a tonne to play for in that division. My concern is that Seattle’s offense has been slowing down in recent weeks and no longer looks as explosive as it once did. Through their first eight games they ranked third in EPA per play at 0.196. In their eight since they’ve dropped to 15th, below the likes of the Panthers and Dolphins. The Rams have had the league’s best pass defense in 2020 and I think they can bounce back with a surprise win against Wilson and the Seahawks in this one.
The pick: Rams +1
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)
You get the feeling that the final nail is in Carson Wentz’s coffin in Philly and his time as the starting quarterback is well and truly over. Despite a loss to the Cardinals last weekend, Jalen Hurts proved his performance against the Saints in Week 14 was no fluke. He seems to have got this offense moving again and despite a 4-9-1 they are still in theoretical contention for the NFC East crown. The Cowboys also look like they are finally putting things together on offense and have scored 71 points through their last two games. A loss for either side will pretty much rule them out of the playoffs for this season and it will be an interesting watch. I don’t have too much faith in either side but I think Hurts can move the ball and get the win for the Eagles.
The pick: Eagles -2.5
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)
This is a huge game for both teams. The Titans need the win to keep control of the AFC South, whilst the Packers need the win to remain as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Tennessee are coming off another offensive masterclass, putting up 46 points on the Lions. They have one of the NFL’s most exciting offenses and both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are hitting their stride on the home straight. Their defense is an obvious weakness though, ranking 30th in passing DVOA. That’s not ideal when facing the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who is having an MVP-calibre season. This is a matchup where both teams’ strengths come up against the others’ weaknesses. The Titans can’t cover and the Packers can’t stop the run. It should be a close contest and I think the Titans could edge the win.
The pick: Titans +3
Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots (+7)
The Bills have wrapped up the AFC East and become division champions for the first time since 1995. They were impressive again against Denver last weekend and Josh Allen continues to state his case as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. This season feels like the changing of the guard in the division and a win here for the Bills would deliver a losing season for the Patriots for the first time since 2000. Bill Belichick deserves credit for getting this team to 6-8 and they are clearly amongst the worst all-around rosters in the NFL. Belichick is 35-6 against Buffalo, but this will be a really tough ask for them to get anything. The Bills haven’t swept the Patriots since 1999 but I expect them to seal it with a win here.
The pick: Bills -7