It’s nearly Christmas and Week 16 is upon us. This week has some excellent matchups, with 12 of the 16 games carrying no more than a one possession spread. Whilst the worst of the NFL’s COVID-19 outbreak seems to be behind us, there are likely to be a number of games impacted this week, so don’t be surprised if these spreads move ahead of gameday. Here are my picks against the spread for all 16 games.
2021 Against the spread record: 117-105-1
2021 Straight up record: 144-78-1
San Francisco 49ers at Tennesee Titans (+3)
The 49ers were always expected to win against the Falcons last week, but the manner of their victory was incredibly impressive. Atlanta had five red zone possessions, with the 49ers allowing a touchdown on just one of them. On offense they continue to be one of the league’s more underrated attacks and rank third in EPA per play since Week 7. As for the Titans, they held the Steelers to just 168 yards of offense last week but still managed to lose. Turnovers are killing this team, with 13 in the last four games. Despite their respective records I think the 49ers are the better team and they should win and cover.
The pick: 49ers -3
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
The Browns look to be coming out the other end of their COVID-19 crisis, with both Baker Mayfield and head coach Kevin Stefanski expected to return for this weekend. That said, there are still a number of big names on Cleveland’s roster that remain questionable, including much of their defensive front and several members of their offensive line. The Packers enter this off the back of their third straight win and their fourth consecutive game scoring 30+ points. They did only just win against the Ravens thanks to a shoddy defensive performance, but I expected them to keep up their streak and get the better of the Browns.
The pick: Packers -7.5
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
There is not a better running back in football than Jonathan Taylor. He led the Colts to a win over New England last week, rushing for 170 yards on his 29 carries. This included a 67-yard touchdown to seal the win. The Colts are now 8-0 in games where Taylor rushes for 100+ yards. Arizona are coming into Week 16 from a completely different standpoint after their loss to the Lions. Their offense looked disjointed throughout, whilst their defense gave up 112 rushing yards at an average of 4.3 per carry to Craig Reynolds. If they play even remotely like that again this could be a big win for Indy, and I like them as the underdogs to beat the spread and win.
The pick: Colts +1
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Lamar Jackson’s status for this game is uncertain, but I’m not sure how much that matters right now. There has been no noticeable drop-off with Tyler Huntley in at quarterback – if anything, this offense has looked better. They ran the Packers close last week, despite Jackson’s absence and a seriously depleted secondary. As for the Bengals, their win last week puts them level with Baltimore at the top of the division. They were limited last week by a strong Broncos defense, but I can’t see Baltimore putting up nearly the same kind of fight. Their depleted cornerback room is going to have major issues covering a receiving corps of Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. I think Cincy wins and takes the divisional lead.
The pick: Bengals -3
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2.5)
This game could have huge implications in the AFC East and the conference playoff race more broadly. A win would almost guarantee the division title for New England, whereas a Bills victory would tie the division. New England had issues on both sides of the ball against the Colts in Week 15, most noticeably against the run. Whether this Bills offense can take advantage of that is another matter though. Buffalo have had their share of problems in run defense and have given up at least 135 rushing yards in four of their last five games. This included the 13-10 loss to New England. I didn’t see anything in that performance to make me think they can stop the Patriots this time around.
The pick: Patriots -2.5
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
The Lions delivered the shock of Week 15 with their win over the Cardinals. It was no fluke either, as they held the lead for the entire game. Detroit have actually been better than their record would suggest in recent weeks, ranking 24th and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play respectively since Week 10. There is no such optimism around the Falcons right now. They have two wins in their last five, but they have come against the crisis-stricken Jags and Panthers. Since Week 10 they rank in the bottom four in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. If Jared Goff is able to play this game, I’m taking the Lions to beat the spread.
The pick: Lions +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1)
If Jags fans were expecting an instant turnaround after Urban Meyer’s departure they will have been bitterly disappointed by the performance last week. They were thoroughly outclassed by a Davis Mills-led Texans team on both sides of the ball, losing 30-16. This is a team that still sits 30th in points per drive on offense and 29th in the same metric on defense. The Jets have been up and down at times this year and their performance last week showed as much. After establishing a 17-7 lead over Miami they managed just 44 yards of offense in the second half. I’m not keen on laying money on either side, but in these circumstances I’d take the better quarterback.
The pick: Jaguars +1
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+10)
Brandon Staley’s fourth down calls may have dominated headlines, but don’t let that distract you from how close they came to beating the Chiefs last week. Their offense, in particular their running game, looked excellent. Their biggest weakness this year has been their continued inability to stop the run, but I can’t see a Texans backfield consisting of Rex Burkhead and David Johnson doing much at all to threaten that. Houston may well have won last week against the Jags, but I’m not sure how much that really tells you. In their eight previous games they had averaged just 11 points on offense. I feel like this has to be a strong Chargers win.
The pick: Chargers -10
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (+3)
With their win over the Seahawks, the Rams have injected even more excitement in the race for the NFC West title. They are now tied at 10-4 with the Cardinals and have their fourth double digit win season in five years. The most impressive thing about their win over Seattle was their defensive performance. They gave up just 214 yards and allowed the Seahawks to convert just three of 11 third down attempts. As for the Vikings, the box score might suggest a dominant win over the Bears last week, but neither side of the ball was particularly impressive. They continue to have issues at cornerback, and that’s bad news against this Rams receiving corps. This should be a fairly comfortable Rams victory.
The pick: Rams -3
New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles (-10)
The Eagles have now won three of their last four after their 27-17 win over Washington on Tuesday. Their running game has been lethal this season and they racked up an astonishing 238 rushing yards at 5.8 per carry against the Football Team. The Giants are predictably terrible with Mike Glennon under center, yet Joe Judge and the coaching staff seem intent on sticking with him in Daniel Jones’ absence. The Giants did win the last encounter between the two at 13-7. Whilst I can’t see them containing the Eagles to seven points again, I do think their defense is good enough to beat a double digit spread.
The pick: Giants +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+10)
Last weekend’s loss to the Saints marked the first time since 2006 that Tom Brady has been held scoreless. Whilst this Carolina defense can match New Orleans for talent, I’m not expecting anywhere near the same calibre of performance. The Panthers have struggled to contain opponents in recent weeks, giving up big games to below-average offenses. On the other side of the ball there has been no sign of improvement since Joe Brady’s departure. This a sizeable spread, particularly with Tampa Bay’s litany of offensive absences, but this putrid Panthers offense gives me confidence that they can cover.
The pick: Buccaneers -10
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
There are still a few games left of the season, but both of these teams are likely already onto their planning for 2022. Chicago’s offense marched up and down the field against the Vikings last week, but had just nine points to show from it. They failed consistently when it mattered, converting just two of 12 third down attempts, and it hard to ignore Matt Nagy’s failure to maximise Justin Fields’ skillset. The Seahawks on the other hand looked laboured moving the ball, with just 214 total yards of offense against the Rams. Given all of this, this game comes down to which defense you trust more. That has to be the Bears. They rank as a top ten unit in both points per drive and drive success rate this season.
The pick: Bears +6.5
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-1)
Denver’s chances of making the playoffs seem to be slipping away and their issues with injuries could not have come at a more inopportune time. Drew Lock is set to start after Teddy Bridgewater’s head injury against the Bengals last weekend. Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon, and Courtland Sutton have all been limited in practice. With all of that accounted for, it might seem natural to go all in on the Raiders, but this is a team that needed a last second field goal to beat a backup Browns team. I wouldn’t be willing to lay money with either side, but I think the Broncos can beat the spread on the strength of their defense.
The pick: Broncos +1
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
It seems crazy that only a few weeks ago we were worried about whether the Chiefs would even make the playoffs. With their 34-28 win over the Chargers last week they extended their lead in the division and put themselves into the No. 1 spot in the AFC. The only problem now will be their issues with COVID-19. As things stand, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Jones are all set to miss this game. That could give Pittsburgh the chance they need to keep things close. The Steelers have underwhelmed on both sides of the ball this year but have still found a way to win. I can’t see them beating the Chiefs, but Kansas City’s absences should allow them to beat the spread.
The pick: Steelers +7.5
Washington Football Team to Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Washington are one of a number of teams being heavily impacted by COVID-19. Whilst they should have Taylor Heinicke back for this one, it was their defense that caused problems last weekend. After holding seven straight opponents under 350 yards, they gave up 519 against the Eagles, including 238 on the ground. As for the Cowboys, they have improbably become a team driven by their defense. Since Week 9 they rank third in defensive EPA per play, whilst their offense sits way down at 24th. I am confident that the Cowboys win this one, but with the offense playing like it is a double digit spread feels steep.
The pick: Washington +10
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-3)
The Dolphins enter this game on a six game winning run. This ranks second in the NFL, behind only the Chiefs. There will be questions about the quality of their opponents though, with two of the wins coming against the Jets and the others against the Texans, Giants, Panthers, an injury-ravaged Ravens team. The Saints shocked everyone with their win over the Bucs last week and they have a defense that rivals Miami’s. The difference is the quality of the respective offenses. Whilst the Saints may only have scored nine points against the Bucs, they still rank sixth in points per drive and seventh in drive success rate this season. That, combined with Miami’s 2-4 road record, should see them win and cover the spread.
The pick: Saints -3