Another week down, another few playoff spots sewn up. The Bills have now won the AFC East for the first time since 1995, whilst the Seahawks make the playoffs for the eighth time in nine seasons. There was plenty of other action too as the Jets stunned the Rams and the Buccaneers staged an incredible comeback against the Falcons. Here are the biggest takeaways from Week 15 in the NFL.
The Jets shock the Rams and get a win
I think it is safe to say that no-one saw this result coming. The Rams entered the game as 17 point favourites and would have secured a playoff spot with the win. It got off to a surprising start, with a 13-3 halftime lead for the Jets and a Rams offense that was utterly unable to move the ball through the first two quarters. It ended in nail-biting fashion, with the Jets clinging on to a 23-20 win, their first since December 29th, 2019.
The Rams defense had been the best in the NFL entering this weekend but they struggled to contain New York. They hadn’t allowed a second half touchdown at home all season until this game and the Jets could probably have had more than 23 points if it weren’t for some conservative play-calling. The Jets’ front seven put in a stellar performance that kept the game close. They sacked Goff three times and the defense tallied five tackles for loss.
The win was one of the biggest upsets against the spread in the modern era and the Jets’ biggest since their famous victory in Super Bowl III (17.5 points). It might not be cause for celebration though. The win takes them out of top spot in the draft and the Jags are now in prime position to land Trevor Lawrence. Whilst they’ve ended the possibility of an 0-16 season, they may now miss out on the greatest quarterback prospect in a generation.
Groundhog day in Atlanta
How many times have we seen this happen? The Atlanta Falcons continue to live up to their unwanted, but full deserved reputation for losing leads. This weekend’s matchup was shaping up to be one of the upsets of the season at halftime. The Falcons led 17-0 and already had over 250 yards. Their defense looked genuinely impressive for a change, limiting Brady and the Bucs to just 61 yards. Tampa Bay punted on all four of their first half drives and Brady looked really poor.
It was a different story in the second half as Brady put up 320 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay seemed to find their rhythm just as the Falcons were losing theirs. Matt Ryan struggled to push the ball downfield and their running game was pretty much non-existent. Their offensive line was also unable to protect Ryan, allowing 20 pressures on 53 dropbacks.
It speaks volumes that losing this lead didn’t come as much of a surprise. The Falcons have now given up three 15+ point second half leads this season. They had a 95.3 per cent chance of winning at one point per ESPN, but again let it slip. To do it against Tom Brady after the calamity of Super Bowl LI makes the result sting even worse.
Patriots playoff run is over
With their 22-12 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots fall to 6-8 on the season and remain third in the AFC East. This result officially rules them out of the playoffs, breaking their NFL record of 11 straight playoff seasons. It also means that they will finish .500 or worse for the first time since 2000. This breaks Belichick’s streak of 19 straight winning seasons, one away from Tom Landry’s all-time record in Dallas.
Like most games involving New England this year, it wasn’t a great spectacle. The offense continues to stutter and Cam Newton is clearly not the long-term answer at quarterback. The defense has dropped off susbtantially from last year too and Stephon Gilmore left with a serious-looking injury in this game. Miami weren’t at their best, but the winning margin could have easily been much larger.
This season was always going to be a transition year for New England and it is a credit to Belichick that he has managed to keep this team in the playoff race until Week 15. The roster looks like one of the weakest in the NFL, but with six wins they may have played themselves out of a top quarterback in the draft. Whatever happens in the next two games, this looks set to be another mammoth offseason in New England.
Chiefs and Packers extend their lead as No. 1 seeds
The playoff race is hotting up and a few more teams secured their spots this weekend. There was no change at the top though as both the Chiefs and Packers extend their leads in their respective conference. Green Bay has a one game lead over the Saints in the NFC, whilst the Chiefs could extend their lead to two if the Bengals pull off an upset and beat the Steelers this weekend. It is safe to say that the wins weren’t straight forward for either team.
The Chiefs delivered a tough fought win over the Saints, running out 32-29 winners. Mahomes made some spectacular plays but the offense blew hot and cold, punting on six of their 13 drives. They struggled to contain the Saints defensive line and Mahomes was under pressure on 44 per cent of his dropbacks. Despite all of that it felt like the Chiefs should have put the game to bed much earlier and this inability to close games out is becoming an increasing concern heading towards the playoffs.
The Packers on the other hand managed a win over the Panthers, but it was a classic tale of two halves. After looking excellent to start things off, they slowed down massively from the third quarter, scoring just three second half points. This has been an issue at times under Matt LaFleur and they won’t be able to get a win if they play like that against the Titans next weekend.
Is Ryan Tannehill the NFL’s most underrated quarterback?
The Titans secured a comfortable 46-25 win over the Lions this weekend to maintain control of the AFC South. Tannehill had an excellent game, going 21 of 27 for 273 yards and three touchdowns, adding another two as a runner. He is now 17-7 as a starter and looks set to lead the team to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2008.
Derrick Henry gets all of the headlines, but it is time to give Tannehill more credit. He has quietly been putting up some excellent numbers and should be considered amongst the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. In 2020 he leads all quarterbacks in EPA per play, ranking second in quarterback efficiency. Last season he ranked third and second respectively. He was PFF’s highest graded quarterback in 2019 and ranks fifth so far this season.
I have to admit that I was sceptical of the four-year, $118 million deal he signed in the offseason. In hindsight it looks like a bargain, as Tannehill is just the 11th highest paid quarterback in the NFL. This puts him behind the likes of Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz and just $1.5 million more expensive than Jacoby Brissett. Their defense could be their downfall in the playoffs, but this offense can keep them in any game.
Week 15 MVP
Baker Mayfield – There were several worthy candidates this weekend, but Mayfield clinches it for his performance against the Giants. He completed 27 of his 32 attempts for 297 yards and two touchdowns as they ran out 20-6 winners. Mayfield has looked good in recent weeks and since Week 7 he ranks first in CPOE, EPA per play, and Success Rate.
Stat of the week
8 – With Ty Johnson’s touchdown against the Rams, the Jets have now scored on their opening drive in eight straight games. That sets a franchise record. That touchdown also makes it six consecutive games where the Jets have scored first. These numbers are impressive in their own right, but even more so when you consider that they had somehow managed to lose every game until this weekend.