With only three weeks left in the regular season the playoff picture is shaping up. We’ve got four playoff teams confirming and two divisions wrapped up already. I had a good week last week, going 10-6 against the spread and 13-3 straight up. There aren’t as many appealing matchups this weekend but there are a few I really like – Seattle at -5 and the Bills at -6 both look good to me.
2020 Against the spread record: 107-93-6
2020 Straight up record: 141-64-1
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
To say that the Chargers were lucky to win last week is an understatement. After a basic special teams error cost them a field goal at the end of the half, they were gifted two fourth quarter interceptions that allowed them to score the winner. The Raiders on the other hand were soundly beaten by a good Colts team. Their defense was atrocious, allowing 0.423 EPA per play. This was the worst total of the weekend and after the game fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther. I don’t really like either team here but I’ll take the Chargers. Anthony Lynn always has the potential to lose a game with his frustrating coaching decisions, but I like the matchup between Justin Herbert and the Raiders secondary.
The pick: Chargers +3
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (+6)
Is it time to include Josh Allen and the Bills with the elite teams in the NFL? After their performance against the Steelers it is difficult to argue against them this season. Their 10-3 record is their best since 1991 when they made the Super Bowl. They can pretty much wrap up the AFC East with a win here but Denver won’t make it easy. Their defense has been good, ranking 10th in DVOA, and they rank fifth in pressure rate. They also own the league’s best red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 48.9 per cent of possessions. Their offense on the other hand is a problem. Drew Lock was good last week, but that performance was a real outlier. Buffalo’s three losses have all come against top offenses. Right now this Broncos team ranks 31st in offensive EPA. The Bills should win and cover here.
The pick: Bills -6
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-9)
Things aren’t going well for Carolina right now. They’ve lost seven of their last eight, the lone win coming in the surprise shutout against Detroit. Their offense has looked good under first year coordinator Joe Brady, but the defense has let them down on multiple occasions. They rank 28th against the pass and 27th in pressure rate. None of this bodes well when facing Aaron Rodgers and the in-form Packers. Rodgers looks like the MVP frontrunner right now, with his passer rating of 119.7 closing in on his NFL record of 122.5 from 2011. The Packers defense is a concern and I can see Mike Davis having a big game. That said, I don’t have enough faith in Carolina’s defense to stop Rodgers.
The pick: Packers -9
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Neither of these teams can catch the Packers in the NFC North, but that doesn’t make this rivalry game any less exciting. I picked the Bears to win last weekend and they delivered in style, crushing Deshaun Watson and the Texans 36-7. Mitchell Trubisky seems to be the starter once again, though that still wouldn’t fill me with hope if I was a Bears fan. The Vikings had one of the most frustrating results last week as kicker Dan Bailey missed all four of his attempts. Their defense has improved recently and rank fifth in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. The Bears have scored touchdowns on their last 10 trips to red zone but that is not sustainable. Both of these teams have the capacity for shocks and surprises, but I think the Vikings are a much better team, despite the shared 6-7 records.
The pick: Vikings -3
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
The Lions made things tough for Green Bay last week but it wasn’t enough. They’ve now won just one of their last four and it looks like Matthew Stafford could potentially miss this matchup. That really doesn’t make me feel good given how poor their defense has been playing. Tennessee on the other hand are getting in to form right where it counts. Derrick Henry looks back and his best and Ryan Tannehill continues to quietly rank amongst the league’s best quarterbacks. This is a big spread, but I’m leaning towards the Titans if Stafford doesn’t play. Detroit’s defense has been woeful and ranks 28th in rushing EPA allowed. That isn’t going to cut it against a player like Henry. Tennessee’s defense is a problem, but unless Stafford plays I can’t see the Lions taking advantage.
The pick: Titans -10.5
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
I really do feel sorry for Deshaun Watson. For all his talent he has been left carrying a lacklustre roster and was hung out to dry against the Bears. Their issues at receiver continue this week even with Brandin Cooks back, and their inability to run the ball is becoming a progressively greater problem. The Colts looked excellent in their win over the Raiders and Jonathan Taylor had the breakout game we’ve been expecting for some time. I do have my doubts about Philip Rivers, but his veteran smarts should make light work of a terrible Texans defense. This was close when these two met last time, but I can’t bank on Houston covering solely on the basis of Deshaun Watson’s brilliance.
The pick: Colts -7
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13)
With all the attention the Jets have garnered for their 0-13 start, it almost feels like the Jags have avoided the criticism that should be coming their way. This team is a mess on both sides of the ball and their inability to create any stability at quarterback is clearly harming the offense. Their defense is also one of the NFL’s worst, ranking 32nd in DVOA and 31st in EPA. With their win over the Browns, Baltimore look to be back and the AFC North seems like a contest again. Their passing attack remains underwhelming, but few can match a ground game that has averaged over seven yards per carry in each of their last two games. I think they win this pretty comfortably, though I think the Jags are better value from a spread perspective.
The pick: Jaguars +13
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2)
The apprentice faces the master as Brian Flores and Bill Belichick face off for the second time this season. Belichick had the Dolphins’ number when these two teams met in Week 1 but a lot has changed since then. New England appear to be in the midst of a quarterback crisis and despite a 45-0 win over the Chargers in Week 13 their offense looks a complete mess. The Dolphins have been trending in the opposite direction and will have been encouraged by the performance against the Chiefs last week, despite not getting the win. Since the start of 2018 Belichick has gone 3-6 against his former assistants, being outscored 190-193. Whoever wins this is likely to be a close one and I’m taking New England to beat the spread.
The pick: Patriots +2
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (+5)
After their loss to the Giants in Week 13, the Seahawks needed that 40-3 win over the Jets. The win wasn’t surprising, but the scale was. The Seahawks hadn’t won by more than a touchdown in over a year and the Jets had lost three of their last four by a single score. The margin could have been even bigger if Pete Carroll hadn’t pulled Russell Wilson in the third quarter with the result pretty much guaranteed. They will have a much tougher test this weekend against a Washington team on a four game winning run. Their defense is legitimately one of the best in the NFL, ranking in the top five in both EPA and DVOA. The problem is a lacklustre offense and uncertainty surrounding which quarterback will start this weekend. They’ve benefitted from facing four poor offenses in a row and I don’t think that Washington have enough to keep pace with this Seattle team.
The pick: Seattle -5
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (+3)
It isn’t very often that two preseason division favourites find themselves at the foot of the table entering Week 15. Both have been hit hard by injuries, particularly at quarterback. The 49ers have ridden the wave slightly better and in Nick Mullens they have a capable backup. They probably should have beaten Washington last weekend but that loss has likely taken them out of playoff contention altogether. Dallas destroyed the Bengals last weekend but benefitted hugely from fumbles on all three of Cincinnati’s opening drives. I think this could be pretty close but I have faith in Kyle Shanahan to get the better of Mike McCarthy. Dallas’ defense ranks 32nd in rushing DVOA and if anyone can attack that it is the 49ers.
The pick: 49ers -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+6)
Things have been rough for the Bucs in recent weeks, but the end to their season is looking pretty promising. With the Falcons twice and the Lions at home they have a great chance to win out and go 11-5, surely enough for a playoff berth. Concerns remain about Brady’s effectiveness downfield, but he’s got a favourable matchup this weekend against the Falcons secondary. Atlanta should have beaten the Chargers last weekend, were it not for two fourth quarter picks from Matt Ryan. I think the Bucs will win, but I feel like the Falcons will keep things close. Brady has struggled under pressure this season, with a passer rating of just 49.8 in such scenarios. The Falcons defensive line ranks third in pass-rush win rate per ESPN and I would expect them to cause some issues and keep it close.
The pick: Falcons +6
New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (-17.5)
With each week that passes, 0-16 looks more and more likely for this Jets team. I didn’t expect them to win last week against the Seahawks but they had been keeping things close in recent games. In the end they were blown out 40-3 with Geno Smith playing the fourth quarter for the Seahawks. Things don’t get any easier this weekend as they face a Rams team with the top ranked defense in the NFL and an offense that has been quietly effective, ranking sixth in DVOA. I don’t have any doubts that the Rams will win this, but I’m taking the Jets with a spread this big. They were terrible last weekend, but they’ve kept games closer than their record suggests.
The pick: Jets +17.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-6)
I was really impressed with what I saw from Jalen Hurts against the Saints last weekend. His running ability caused all sorts of problems and, for the most part, he was pretty efficient as a passer. I’m not going to go overboard though. He had a dropped pick that was likely a pick six and he’s still got work to do as a passer. I think that the Cardinals will be better able to take account of the Eagles’ new-found ground game and Kyler Murray looks like he’s back to full fitness. The Cardinals have dropped off in recent weeks but I think they are still a difficult team to beat and I’m expecting them to cause problems for the Eagles. Arizona should get the win in this one, but Philly have enough to beat the spread.
The pick: Eagles +6
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3)
With their win over the Dolphins, the Chiefs clinched their fifth straight AFC West title and moved to 12-1. It wasn’t always convincing though and their inability to consistently close out games remains a problem. Mahomes had one of his worst games of the season and threw three picks for the first time since Week 11 of 2018. The Saints were on the wrong end of the biggest upset in Week 14 as Jalen Hurts and the Eagles got the surprise win. It looks like they will have Taysom Hill again, although Sean Payton has spent this week talking up Jameis Winston’s chances to become the Saints’ future starter. Hill hasn’t been great and has already been responsible for two picks and 10 fumbles in his last five games. This New Orleans defense will make things hard for Mahomes, but I’ve not got enough faith in Taysom Hill to think he can keep pace with this Chiefs team.
The pick: Chiefs -3
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (+5)
Monday night’s loss to the Ravens will have been tough for the Browns to take, but they remain at 9-4 with a great chance of making the playoffs. Mayfield looked much better under pressure, but their defense is going to limit any postseason ambitions. The Giants looked abject against the Cardinals last week and it was clear that Daniel Jones wasn’t ready to return. They didn’t get into Cardinal territory until the middle of the third quarter and Colt McCoy looks like he’ll be back for this one. This will be tougher than it looks on paper for Cleveland. The Giants have one of the NFL’s better run defenses and they’ve been surprisingly effective at creating pressure up front, ranking eighth in pressure rate at 25.3 per cent. My concerns about New York’s offense leaves me taking the Browns to win and cover though.
The pick: Browns -5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+12.5)
What is going on in Pittsburgh? After an 11-0 start they’ve lost two on the bounce and questions are being asked about the limitations of this offense. They’ve struggled with drops, with their total of 35 leading the league. Their defense remains one of the best in the NFL, but it can only carry them so far given a lacklustre running game and an ineffective dink and dunk passing attack. They should get back on track here though with a favourable matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati were abject last week, losing 30-7 to a poor Dallas team. They weren’t helped by fumbles on each of their opening three drives, but this team has lost its fight since Joe Burrow was ruled out for the season. They’ve scored 10 or fewer points in four of their last five games. I don’t have much faith in the Steelers offense, but their strong defense and the Bengals’ inability to put up points should see them cover a sizeable spread.
The pick: Steelers -12.5