With Week 15 here, we now have Saturday football to look forward to as well. It looks like COVID-19 outbreaks will impact a number of games, so don’t be surprised if a couple of the lines move significantly between now and gameday. Here are my picks against the spread for every game in Week 15.
2021 Against the spread record: 107-99-1
2021 Straight up record: 134-72-1
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+3)
The Chiefs of old appear to be back. Last weekend they beat the Raiders 48-9, which was the most points they have scored in a regular season game in over two seasons. The offense now ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play and leads the league in drive success rate. The defense has actually been the big driver behind their turnaround and haven’t given up more than 14 points since Week 8. The Chargers’ offense has also looked good in recent weeks, but unlike the Chiefs their defense remains a liability. They rank 25th in points per drive, and that is bad news against this Chiefs offense.
The pick: Chiefs -3
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3)
I think it might be time to sound the alarm on this Raiders defense. They have allowed 34.2 points per game since Week 10 and rank 32nd in the NFL in EPA per play during that period. With the exception of the game against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, the offense hasn’t done much either, failing to top 16 points in six of their last seven games. Cleveland’s biggest obstacle to success will be their ongoing issues with COVID-19. A number of big names have been ruled out, including Baker Mayfield and head coach Kevin Stefanski. I expect them to lean on their running game in this scenario and I feel like Vegas will struggle to stop it.
The pick: Browns -3
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2)
Both of these teams were riding high before their Week 14 bye. New England have won seven straight, the longest active streak in the NFL. They have been nothing short of elite on both sides of the ball, leading the league in both offensive and defensive EPA per play since Week 7. As for the Colts, they have gone how Jonathan Taylor has gone. They are 7-0 in games where he has exceeded 100 rushing yards and are winless when he has failed to hit triple digits. New England have given up just two 100+ yard rushing performances this year. Both came against the Titans in Week 12. I think the Patriots are the better team and they should beat the spread and win.
The pick: Patriots +2
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+13.5)
The Cardinals’ loss to the Rams last weekend will have been a particularly tough one to take. Not only did they lose the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but they also saw their lead in the NFC West drop to just one game. The offense was better than the final scoreline would suggest, but they left far too many points on the table. They were two of four in the red zone, including a crucial interception from Kyler Murray. The Lions were hammered by Denver last week, but that was to be expected with almost 20% of their roster absent with COVID-19. A number of those players will return this weekend, but the Cardinals are a big step up from the Broncos. I can’t see anything other than a comfortable Cardinals victory.
The pick: Cardinals -13.5
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
The season has really fallen apart in Carolina. They are now on a three game losing run and rank 31st in offensive EPA since Week 7. Matt Rhule fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady but judging by last week’s performance it made little difference. The Bills might have a winning record, but they too have fallen far below their own lofty expectations. The offense in particular has been a concern and they have looked noticeably disjointed at times this year. That said, I still think they win and cover. When they win they win big, with all seven of their victories coming by 15+ points. For all of their faults I can’t see a world in which Cam Newton and the Panthers keep it remotely close.
The pick: Bills -10.5
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+10.5)
The Cowboys might still sit at the summit of the NFC East, but this offense has become a growing concern. Through Weeks 1-6 they ranked fifth in offensive EPA. Since then they have dropped all the way to 24th. Injuries have no doubt played a part in this, but even with all of his best receivers back last weekend, Dak Prescott still didn’t look great. The Giants’ offense hasn’t been great either, and they have averaged less than 12 points per game since Week 9. The only silver lining is that their defense has been above average in recent weeks. I think that could allow them to slow Dallas down and keep it within the spread.
The pick: Giants +10.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
I’m not sure there will be many people watching this matchup, although Urban Meyer’s firing might have piqued interests. The two teams have combined for just four wins all season. They have each topped 14 points just once since Week 9. The defenses are terrible too. Houston rank 27th in EPA per play, whilst Jacksonville are down in 31st. I don’t have any faith in either team and certainly won’t be laying money on this game. That said, if I was I would take the Texans. I still think they are a marginally better team and it could take a while for Jacksonville to get things back on track after relieving Meyer of his duties.
The pick: Texans +3
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)
Miami’s turnaround in the second half of the season has been nothing short of remarkable. Through Weeks 1-8 they ranked 27th in defensive EPA per play. Since then they rank second behind only New England. They are on a five game winning run, which includes a 24-17 win over the Jets in the first meeting between these two teams. That game was fairly close throughout, but New York’s offense ran through rookies Michael Carter and Elijah Moore. Both are on IR and will miss this game. I have little doubt that Miami will win this one, but that is a steep spread for an offense that has topped 28 points just once all season.
The pick: Jets +8.5
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)
The Titans shut out the Jags in a 20-0 victory last weekend. The offense wasn’t always pretty, but they do seem to have found success in their running game despite Derrick Henry’s continued absence. The team has put up 435 rushing yards in their last three games at an average of 5.2 yards per carry. That is bad news for a Steelers team that allowed 242 rushing yards to the Vikings last week and who have allowed an average of 187 rushing yards per game since Week 9. Pittsburgh’s offense has improved in recent weeks, but nowhere near enough to carry this defense.
The pick: Titans -2
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
The Eagles have now won four of their last six, including one win with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Since Week 8 they actually sit fifth in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Jalen Hurts should return for game too, and that will no doubt boost their running game. Washington’s loss to the Cowboys last weekend ended a four game winning run. Whilst they deserve credit for clawing it back to 27-20 after trailing 24-0 at halftime, there was no escaping how poor the offense looked. Their defense will make this hard for the Eagles, but I still think they are outmatched in too many areas to keep it close.
The pick: Eagles -4.5
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-9)
It wasn’t always pretty, but the 49ers got the win over the Bengals last weekend. That game marked their fifth win in their last seven games. In that period their offense ranks second in EPA per play behind the Packers. The defense has been solid too, holding opponents to an average of just 19.7 points per game in that run. Atlanta have picked things up slightly, with two wins in their last three games. That said, those wins came against Jacksonville and Carolina. Atlanta’s offense has been below average all year and their defense ranks 32nd in drive success rate. This is a sizeable spread, but one that the 49ers should cover.
The pick: 49ers -9
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
The Bengals probably deserved to beat the 49ers last week, but a couple of muffed punts cost them massively. Their issue has been inconsistency this season, and it is difficult know what to expect from them on either side of the ball from week-to-week. As for the Broncos, they enter off a commanding win over a depleted Lions team. I’m not sure we can take much from that result, but there is no doubt Denver’s defense is strong, having allowed more than 20 points just once since Week 6. I think this will be a close one, but I will always take the better quarterback as an underdog.
The pick: Bengals +1.5
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+4.5)
There might not be a better team in the NFL right now than the Packers. They have taken over as the NFC’s No. 1 seed and their offense is hitting its stride at just the right time. They have averaged 37.3 points per game in their last three and lead the NFL in EPA per play. They also sit second in yards per drive and fourth in drive success rate. This matchup couldn’t come at a worse time for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is likely to play, but won’t be at 100% after his ankle injury last weekend. Their offense has topped 20 points just once in five games and their defense ranks 22nd in EPA per play since Week 8. It is also worth noting that they have allowed a league-high 23 sacks since Week 10. That is bad news against an in-form Packers pass rush.
The pick: Packers -4.5
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
All might not be lost in Seattle after all. They have now won two games on the bounce, scoring 30+ points in each outing. Their win last weekend did admittedly come against the 2-11 Texans, but it was impossible to ignore their strong all-around offensive performance. As for the Rams, they got the win they so desperately needed last weekend after winning just one of their previous four outings. Their performance against Arizona was all the more impressive considering they were without a number of big names, including Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey should be back for this one and I think that is more than enough to give the Rams the edge.
The pick: Rams -4.5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11)
After a small panic earlier in the season, the Bucs look back to their explosive best. They have won four games on the bounce, scoring 30+ points in each of them. This includes 33 points last weekend against a talented Bills defense. This offense is capable of beating teams on the ground or through the air and Tom Brady is playing some of the best football of his career. The Saints finally got a win last week against the Jets after losing five in a row. Sean Payton has actually won all three of the regular season games against the Brady-led Bucs, but I think that run comes to an end here. Still, with Kamara back and a strong defense, I think they keep it closer than the spread.
The pick: Saints +11
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Minnesota were very nearly on the wrong end of a crazy comeback last weekend against the Steelers. After leading 29-0, the game came down to the final seconds as they won 36-28. This still feels like a team that adds up to less than the sum of its parts. Chicago looked close to an upset over Green Bay at times last week, before they too suffered a second half collapse. Their offense showed real promise, but it difficult to do much when your defense gives up 439 yards. Minnesota should win, but I saw enough from Chicago last week to think they keep it fairly close. For what it is worth, Kirk Cousins is also 1-9 on Monday Night Football throughout his career.
The pick: Bears +3.5