Week 13 really delivered from a drama standpoint, but it wasn’t my finest hour when it came to predictions. I ended up going 7-8 but I’m still over .500 for the season and hope to stay that way this weekend. There are some interesting lines in Week 14 and I’m backing the Ravens to cover a one point spread against the Browns on Monday night. Here are all the rest of my picks against the spread.
2020 Against the spread record: 97-87-6
2020 Straight up record: 128-61-1
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
The Patriots delivered the shock of Week 13 with their 45-0 win over the Chargers. Despite a persistently lacklustre offense they’ve managed to put together a good run, with four wins in their last five games. Their defense has been a big factor in this improvement. Through Weeks 1 to 10 they ranked 20th in EPA per play, rising to 10th in their last three games. They’ve got a tough test against the Rams, who looked really impressive against the Cardinals and now find themselves at the top of the NFC West with the tiebreaker over the Seahawks. Their defense remains one of the best in the NFL and they rank 4th in rushing EPA which should stand them in good stead for a game against the Patriots. Belichick will always keep things close but their underwhelming offense can only get them so far.
The pick: Rams -5.5
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (+2.5)
The Cardinals have had a tough time since their Hail Mary win over the Bills. They’ve lost their last three and Kyler Murray has struggled as a result of his shoulder injury. Their defense has been showing signs of regression too. They ranked 14th in EPA per play before their bye, falling to 25th in the five games since. The Giants on the other hand are trending in the right direction, with four straight wins. They looked excellent against Seattle despite the continued absence of Daniel Jones. Their run game was particularly impressive, accounting for 190 yards at an average of 6.1 per carry. Still, Arizona are a good team and I don’t think the Giants’ winning run can continue much longer. New York have a habit of keeping things close, but I think the Cardinals can edge it and cover the spread.
The pick: Cardinals -2.5
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
Things really aren’t going well for Dallas. They sit at the bottom of the NFC North with a 3-9 record, with a defense allowing a league-high 32.8 points per game. They don’t look on either side of the ball at the moment and rank 25th and 27th in offensive and defensive DVOA. Luckily for them they face a Bengals side who are even worse on both counts. Clearly the big story here will be Andy Dalton’s return to Cincinnati and whether or not he can deliver a much-needed win for the Cowboys. I don’t have a tonne of confidence in either team right now but I’m leaning towards Dallas here. Their offensive line has been a major concern so it helps to face a Bengals defense that rank 32nd in the NFL in pressure rate at just 17 per cent.
The pick: Cowboys -3.5
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-4)
The season hasn’t gone as planned for the Broncos and it looks like they may be entering the quarterback sweepstakes once again in the offseason. Nevertheless, they were pretty effective against the Chiefs and surprised many by keeping that game close. Their defense is clearly their strength and despite the absence of some big names they rank inside the top ten in EPA per play and DVOA. The Panthers on the other hand have been a difficult team to figure out. They’ve been having a tough time lately, losing six of their last seven games. I think that Carolina are the better team with more to offer on offense, but I like Denver to beat the spread.
The pick: Broncos +4
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-8)
The Packers look set for another trip to the playoffs with a three game cushion over Minnesota in the NFC North. Last week Rodgers became the fastest player to throw for 400 touchdowns and is one of just seven in NFL history to reach that milestone. Their defense and special teams units remain something of a concern though. They gave up several big plays to the Eagles last week and have now allowed two punt return touchdowns in four games. The Lions delivered one of Week 13’s best comebacks, overturning a 30-20 deficit late in the fourth quarter to beat the Bears. There is certainly talent on the Detroit offense, but they don’t match up well against the Packers. Green Bay’s biggest weakness is their run defense, yet the Lions rank 30th in rushing EPA in 2020. The Packers dominated Detroit in Week 2 and I’m expecting similar things this time around.
The pick: Packers -8
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (+1)
You have to feel sorry for Deshaun Watson. He’s been playing the best football of his career in 2020 and should be an MVP candidate based on how much he’s had to carry the Texans. They should have beaten the Colts last week and would have done if they hadn’t fumbled on a 2nd and goal with less than two minutes left. The Bears lost last week too, continuing a rough run of form. Letting a double digit lead slip to the Lions in the fourth quarter will be difficult to live down and they are now without a win in six games. As much as I like Watson, he is the only thing going for this Texans team right now. The Bears aren’t great, but their defense is effective and will make life difficult for Watson. I’m expecting a pretty close contest, and I think the Bears could beat the spread.
The pick: Bears +1
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (+7)
The Chiefs have been an odd team to figure out in recent weeks. They’ve been winning, but they’ve either struggled to close games out or looked unconvincing, such as last week’s game against the Broncos. They’ve also routinely left points on the board with numerous chip shot field goals and punts on 4th and short. They are now 0-4 against the spread since their game against the Panthers. The Dolphins delivered a pretty scrappy win against the Bengals last week and find themselves improbably at 8-4. Tua has looked effective, though we are yet to see a statement game from him. As much as the Chiefs defense has flaws I’m not expecting this to be close. Miami’s strength is their defense and if anyone can work around that it is Mahomes.
The pick: Chiefs -7
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
It isn’t that long ago that the Vikings’ season looked dead and buried after they started 1-5. They’ve turned things around though and are now at 6-6, three wins behind the Packers in the NFC North. If the season ended today this would be good enough to make the playoffs. A big part of their resurgence has been their defense. Prior to their bye in Week 7 they ranked 24th in EPA. In the six games since they have ranked 8th. In contrast, the Bucs have been heading in the opposite direction, with three losses in their last four. They are still a good team though, and it will be interesting to see how a young Vikings secondary covers their receiving corps. This should be a good matchup and whilst the Bucs should win, I think the Vikings can beat the spread
The pick: Vikings +6.5
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)
The AFC South is shaping up to be one of the more interesting division races. The Titans hold the lead on a tiebreaker with the Colts, with both teams at 8-4. Tennessee were an odd watch last week, looking lost in the first half before blowing the Browns away after halftime. It wasn’t enough to win though and their defense’s inability to make stops is going to limit this team if it makes the playoffs. The Jags have had back-to-back good games against teams that run similar offenses to the Titans, but failed to get the win in either. They look to be sticking with Mike Glennon for this one after solid, if unspectacular, performances in the last two games. Despite their issues on defense I think the Titans should cover this fairly comfortably.
The pick: Titans -7.5
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
Both of these teams are coming off Week 13 wins that on balance were pretty lucky. The Colts offense were scoreless in the second half and they narrowly scraped past the Texans. If it weren’t for an errant snap by Houston center Nick Martin in the dying moments of the fourth quarter they would more than likely have lost. It was a similar story from the Raiders, who benefitted from some kamikaze tactics from the Jets on the last play of the game, allowing them to score the winning touchdown. Both of these teams still harbour ambitions of making the playoffs, but I think that the Colts are the more well-rounded team. I think they should win and cover here. and they should be able to win this one.
The pick: Colts -2.5
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (+13.5)
The Jets made headlines last week after Gregg Williams’ decision to zero blitz on a Hail Mary allowed the Raiders to win the game. He has since been fired on the basis of that decision and a franchise that already looked to be in a mess looks even worse. You get the feeling that an 0-16 season could legitimately be on the cards. The Seahawks will be keen to bounce back from a terrible showing against the Giants. Their defense continues to be terrible, whilst their offense has blown hot and cold in recent weeks. They seem so over-reliant on Russell Wilson and when he isn’t playing at an MVP level there isn’t enough elsewhere to push the team forward. On balance, I think the Jets are the better bet here. They might be a bad team but they aren’t getting blown out. Three of their last four games have actually finished within one score. Seattle on the other hand haven’t had a double digit win since Week 8 and haven’t won by a margin this big since Week 4 of 2019.
The pick: Jets +13.5
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
Even in the post-Dan Quinn era it is difficult to know what to make of the Falcons. They are one of the most erratic teams from a week-to-week standpoint and as always are a nightmare to predict against the spread. Despite their loss last week they were fairly impressive against the Saints. The Chargers on the other hand suffered by far the most humiliating result under Anthony Lynn and you get the feeling he could be the next head coach to lose their job. The 45-0 loss against the Patriots was abject and despite all of the praise for Justin Herbert, this is still a team with just a 3-9 record. I don’t have enough confidence in either side to suggest actually betting on this game, but if I have to pick a side it would be the Falcons.
The pick: Falcons -2.5
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+7)
It still isn’t clear whether or not Drew Brees will return this weekend, but the Saints have rolled on regardless. They are 3-0 with Taysom Hill and their nine game winning streak is the longest in the NFL. Hill looked much improved last weekend but their run has principally come as a result of an elite defense. The Saints gave up 16 points last weekend, which was their highest total since Week 8. The Eagles on the other hand have made the move that many were expecting and benched Carson Wentz. It is pretty telling that this line hasn’t moved since that announcement. Although Jalen Hurts was impressive against the Packers, I think he will struggle in this one. The Saints should cover this pretty comfortably.
The pick: Saints -7
Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Washington are coming off one of the results of the season, delivering the Steelers their first loss of 2020. Alex Smith is now 3-1 as a starter and is surely the lock for winning Comeback Player of the Year. Their defense has been good too, ranking inside the top five in both EPA and DVOA. The 49ers are doing well despite difficult circumstances and their temporary move to Arizona isn’t going to help if last week was anything to go by. I think this could be a genuinely interesting matchup and Washington have a chance to push for the lead in the NFC East. I would struggle to pick a winner out of these two so for that reason I’m taking Washington to beat the spread.
The pick: Washington +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
I had been saying that the Steelers were overrated for weeks and their winning run ended spectacularly against Washington last week. They were outclassed in that game and their offensive limitations finally proved too much for their defense to overcome. The Bills meanwhile were my lock of the week in Week 13 and delivered with a strong performance against the 49ers. They maintain their lead in the AFC East and have lost just one of their last six. Despite my reservations about the Steelers they are still a good team and I’m still surprised to see them as underdogs. Their defense is going to cause problems for Josh Allen and I think they’ve got enough to keep it close.
The pick: Steelers +2.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens got back to winning ways against the Cowboys and their ground game was phenomenal. They ended up with 297 yards at an average of 7.9 per carry and looked back to their best. Their passing game remains a concern, but they are better than their 7-5 record suggests. The Browns are the opposite, being nowhere near as good as their 9-3 record suggests. Football Outsiders’s Estimated Wins calculation has them at 5.7 wins, ranked 17th in the NFL. Baker Mayfield remains erratic and his performances seem to hang on whether or not he can stay free from pressure. This bodes well for Baltimore, who have a strong front seven and rank fifth in blitz rate. The Ravens won easily in Week 1 and I think they will beat Cleveland again.
The pick: Ravens -1