Week 13 has been of 2020’s most entertaining and there are still four games left to play. All but one of the early window games finished within one score, with last minute comebacks for the Raiders and Lions. There was drama in the later games too, with a shutout win for the Patriots and a shock win for the Giants. Here are the biggest takeaways and talking points from Week 13 in the NFL.
Jets snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
Just when you thought the Jets could get their first victory of 2020 this happens. With a few minutes left to play they looked set to deliver one of the shock results of the season. Vegas had the ball on their own 39, with 42 seconds left and no timeouts. Per ESPN the Jets had a 96.8 per cent chance of securing their first win of the season. A few moments later the Raiders scored on a 46 yard touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs.
The touchdown was all on Jets’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who has since been fired for his decision. In an obvious Hail Mary scenario teams play some form of prevent defense in an attempt to protect the end zone. The Jets ran a zero blitz, leaving three defenders covering three receivers and rushing seven. To make matters worse, they had undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson matched up against Henry Ruggs. This wasn’t a deliberate move to tank, but if you were going to tank, this would be the play to call. Since 2006 there have been 251 comparable play scenarios. Not a single one of them saw the defense run a zero blitz.
The call saw Williams receive public criticism from his own players and Adam Gase has said that firing Williams was the best move for the Jets to make. They are now 0-12 and are the clear favourites for the No. 1 overall pick and Trevor Lawrence. They could easily end up as the first winless team since the 2017 Browns, which coincidentally had Gregg Williams as their defense coordinator too.
Browns go 9-3 with a Jekyll and Hyde performance
I’ve said all season that Cleveland are one of the most difficult teams to figure out. They’ve been average from a statistical perspective, ranking outside the top ten in EPA and DVOA on both sides of the ball. This week’s performance against the Titans only reinforced that belief. In their first half they played some of the best football we’ve seen all season. They scored on all six of their first half drives, with five of them going for touchdowns. They could legitimately have had six if Peoples-Jones hadn’t dropped a wide open touchdown catch.
Mayfield was electric, going 20 of 25 for 290 yards and four touchdowns all in the first half. Their defense did its job too, holding Derrick Henry to 14 yards on seven first half carries and forcing two fumbles early on. The tables turned in the second half though as Cleveland saw a 38-7 lead almost evaporate as the game ended 41-35.
Everything seemed to suddenly stop working after the half. They had 344 yards in the first half alone, yet managed just 84 in the second. Both Mayfield and their running game disappeared. If you take out a 29 yard run from Chubb, the Browns averaged 2.2 yards per carry in the second half. Their defense fell apart too and the Titans outscored them 28-3. The win is what matters though and they move to 9-3. They are currently the fifth seed in the AFC and could make the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
Bears fourth quarter collapse extends their winless run
History repeated itself this weekend as the Bears-Lions matchup came down to a fourth quarter comeback. This time though it was the Lions who ran out victorious. They kicked the post-Patricia era off with a win, just their second since Week 8. It looked like a certain Chicago win for much of the game and the Bears were the better side for the first three quarters.
Detroit managed a late fourth quarter touchdown to bring it to 27-30, but the Bears had the ball with a chance to run out the clock. Trubisky had played pretty well for most of the game, but his performance will be defined by what happened next. On a 3rd and 4 he was sacked, and fumbled the ball inside his own ten yard line. The Lions had no trouble punching it in and ran out 34-30 winners.
To understand the scale of this collapse, ESPN had the Bears with a 99.1 per cent chance of winning with less than five minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Their losing streak now extends to six games, ranked ahead of just the Jets and Jaguars. For all of their defensive talent, this is a team who have been lacklustre on offense for a number of years. If things don’t change soon you feel that the pressure will be on for Matt Nagy and their GM Ryan Pace.
Wentz benched for Jalen Hurts
Carson Wentz has been a problem for the Eagles this season. His drop-off has been noticeably steep and questions were swirling even before this weekend’s game against the Packers. Despite low expectations the Eagles somehow managed to underdeliver and in the third quarter Doug Pederson made the move and benched Wentz.
It really wasn’t surprising. Wentz was 6 of 15 for 79 yards, finishing with a passer rating of 57.4. The offense as a whole was a mess, managing just 90 yards in the entire first half, with the Packers holding a comfortable 20-3 lead. Hurts might not have changed the end result but he certainly showed promise. Despite a late pick he had got the team moving, going 5 of 12 for 109 yards, including a touchdown pass on a 4th and 18. He added an extra dimension with his legs too and the Eagles finally looked like they could cause problems for the Packers defense.
The big question moving forward is what this means for Carson Wentz. Whoever is under center next week will have a really tough game against an excellent Saints defense. Wentz has been terrible all season and it will be difficult to go back to him after a strong showing from Hurts. This certainly feels like the beginning of the end for Wentz in Philly.
Giants stun the Seahawks to go top of the NFC East
Entering the weekend there weren’t many games that looked as one-sided as the Giants-Seahawks matchup did on paper. With no Daniel Jones it was always going to be difficult, but the Giants managed to pull off the upset. They extend their winning run to four games and find themselves at the top of the NFC East. In contrast, the Seahawks have lost three of their last five and lose the lead in the NFC West.
They looked good on both sides of the ball. They had a season high 190 yards rushing, averaging over 6.1 yards per carry against a normally stout Seattle run defense. New York’s defense was excellent too, with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham getting creative with blitz packages and creating a tonne of pressure. Wilson was under pressure on 37 per cent of his dropbacks and was sacked five times.
The Giants have now held their opponents to fewer than 21 points in each of their last four games, the first time since 2011. They have also managed a four game winning streak for the first time since 2016. This team is certainly not the finished article, but the early signs under Joe Judge are definitely encouraging.
Anthony Lynn under pressure after shutout loss
The game between the Patriots and Chargers looked like it could be an excellent contest. The 1.5 point spread was one of the closest of the weekend and both teams looked pretty evenly matched. Fast forward a few hours and the Patriots ran out 45-0 winners. This is their biggest margin of victory since 2009 and ranks 30th on the NFL’s all-time list. For the Chargers it marked their first shutout since 2014.
The most incredible thing about this game is that the Patriots managed this result without their offense ever looking that impressive. Cam Newton had just 69 yards passing before Jarrett Stidham came on during the fourth quarter. They had receiver and return specialist Gunner Olszewski to thank, with his three punt returns going for 145 yards and a touchdown. Olszewski actually had more return yards than the Patriots had passing yards. He also caught a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter, just the third wide receiver touchdown New England has had all year.
Things are looking bleak for the Chargers and this is bound to increase the pressure on Anthony Lynn. He was heavily criticised for his play calling last week and it looks like he’s holding this team back. For all the praise on Justin Herbert, this is a team that has started 3-9 and look like they’ll be picking at the top end of the draft again in 2021. At this rate he’ll be lucky to be in his job by the end of the season.
Week 13 MVP
Darren Waller – The dramatic ending to the Raiders-Jets game will get all of the attention this week, but Darren Waller was the standout performer and easily the week’s MVP. He carried the Raiders offense for much of the game, going for 200 yards and two touchdowns on his 13 targets. He joins Jackie Smith, Rich Caster, and Shannon Sharpe as one of only four tight ends to hit 200+ yards and two touchdowns in a single game.
1471 – The number of days since Taysom Hill’s last passing touchdown before today. Hill had his first NFL passing touchdown this weekend against the Falcons. The last time he threw a touchdown pass was on the 27th November 2016 in a college game between BYU and Utah State.