We’re getting towards the business end of the season and excitement is really hotting up. I had a great week in Week 12, going 11-4-1 against the spread. There are some bets I really like this weekend, particularly the Steelers at -7 vs. Washington and the Titans at -4.5 vs. the Browns. Here are my picks against the spread for Week 13.
2020 Against the spread record: 90-79-6
2020 Straight up record: 119-55-1
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-10.5)
Things were always going to be difficult for the Bengals after losing Joe Burrow, but they were surprisingly competitive last week, albeit against the Giants. That said, this was mainly down to their defense and some big plays on special teams. Brandon Allen ranked 28th in quarterback efficiency of the 30 who played. For Miami they managed the win without Tua and Fitzpatrick might start again in this one. I like this Miami defense, but the Bengals have been better on that side of the ball in recent weeks. I haven’t seen enough from Miami on offense to justify this kind of spread.
The pick: Bengals +10.5
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
With their win last week the Browns broke a run of 12 consecutive losing seasons. Their 8-3 record is deceiving though and this is a team who has been fairly mediocre all year. They rank 15th and 20th in offensive and defensive EPA and 16th and 19th in offensive and defensive DVOA. The Titans on the other hand managed to wrest control of the AFC South away from the Bucs last week and look to be hitting their stride. Derrick Henry is back to his best and this offense is one of the best in the NFL. Their defense is a major issue, but so is Cleveland’s and in that scenario I’ll take the proven offense every time.
The pick: Titans -4.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)
The Lions finally made the move many were expecting and fired Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn. After that Thanksgiving performance it wasn’t surprising. They were soundly beaten by a three-win Houston team, two of which had come against Jacksonville. The Bears didn’t fare much better and looked really poor against the Packers. Mitchell Trubisky is starting again, something that really doesn’t fill me with hope. The Lions are bad but the Bears are in freefall, losing five in a row. I think that Detroit could spring a surprise here.
The pick: Lions +3
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3)
The Texans put in a dominant performance over the Lions on Thanksgiving and now have a winning record since Romeo Crennel took over as interim head coach. Deshaun Watson has shown himself to be one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks this season, and now ranks second in all-time passer rating. He can only do so much though and this team continues to be held back by a poor defense and ineffective running game. The Colts were embarrassed last week by the Titans in a 45-26 defeat, though they still boast one of the league’s better defenses. As much as I have like Watson, I don’t think that Houston have enough to contend with the Colts in this one.
The pick: Colts -3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
With their loss to the Browns, the Jags extend their winless run to 10 games. They’ve now fired their GM Dave Caldwell and it looks like they could challenge the Jets for the No. 1 overall pick. Despite Gardner Minshew’s return they are sticking with Mike Glennon and that doesn’t fill me with hope. Minnesota snatched a last second 28-27 win over the Panthers last weekend and have now moved up to second in the NFC North. Their defense is improving, ranking 12th in DVOA and holding Carolina’s offense to 13 points in that game. This is a big spread but the Vikings are a much better team and it should show.
The pick: Vikings -10
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (+7.5)
Nobody disappointed last weekend as much as the Raiders. After a really impressive performance against the Chiefs they went missing on both sides of the ball. Their offense was held to just two field goals, whilst their defense gave up 43 points to a Falcons team without Julio Jones. It was the same old story for the Jets last weekend as they were resoundingly beaten 20-3 by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins. They are as bad as their record suggests, ranking 32nd and 29th in offensive and defensive EPA respectively. Vegas are clearly the better team, but their performance last week is a concern. I think they win this one but the Jets should beat the spread.
The pick: Jets +7.5
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
The Saints are now 2-0 with Taysom Hill but it hasn’t really been all that convincing on offense. Despite the scoreline they were awful last weekend against the Broncos and it is clear that Hill has some serious limitations as a passer. On the plus side, their defense continued its case as one of the best in the NFL. They were obviously helped by facing a quarterback-less Broncos, but they have given up 13 or fewer points in four straight games. The Falcons are, as always, an impossible team to figure out. They put together one of 2020’s most dominant performances last week but that was a huge outlier. I’ve got doubts about this Saints offense, but with the Falcons’ injury issues and a resurgent New Orleans defense, I’m taking the Saints to cover.
The pick: Saints -3
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
The NFC West is easily the best division in football right now and this looks like an excellent matchup. Both of these teams lost to walk-off field goals last week in games that they will each feel they should have won. The Rams offense wasn’t great but their defense remains amongst the best in the NFL, where they have allowed the lowest EPA per play in the NFL. The Cardinals beat themselves with their decision to kick a field goal on a 4th and 1 and Zane Gonzalez subsequently missing it. Kingsbury’s willingness to take field goals in short yardage situations has cost them this year. I think this could be one of the best games of the weekend and with Kyler Murray seemingly back to full health I’ve got them beating the spread and delivering an upset at home.
The pick: Cardinals +2.5
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-11)
Out of nowhere the Giants have somehow put together three straight wins. They now find themselves at the top of the NFC East, though that doesn’t carry the weight it once did. Daniel Jones’ injury is big though and it was clear from last week’s showing that this offense will struggle under Colt McCoy. Seattle look to be back on track after a couple of rough losses, but they aren’t blowing teams away. They rank 17th in offense EPA since Week 9 and for all of their apparent dominance, six of their eight wins this season have been within one score. I think that ends this weekend though and I’m expecting a dominant win from the Seahawks to stake their claim as one of the best in the NFC.
The pick: Seahawks -11
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
The Patriots somehow managed to come away with a win against the Cardinals, despite their offense accounting for just 179 yards and a defense that wasn’t particularly impressive. The Chargers on the other hand were making headlines for all the wrong reasons. They were gifted three fourth quarter turnovers, but scored just three points off them. Anthony Lynn’s play calling has come under a lot of criticism and you get the sense that he may be holding this offense back. The Patriots have two more wins, but they’ve struggled away from home this season with just a 1-4 record. This will be a close one but the Chargers should have enough to win and cover.
The pick: Chargers -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-9)
The last time these two met in 2019 they delivered an excellent game, with the Eagles running out 34-27 winners in Lambeau. A lot as changed since then, with questions about Carson Wentz’s future still dominating the narrative around the Eagles. He’s been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks, with his 29 turnover-worthy plays way ahead of anyone else. In contrast, Aaron Rodgers looks like a potential MVP candidate again. I still have concerns about the Packers’ run defense, but there is no way I’m taking Carson Wentz given his recent performances. If the Packers get an early lead Philly will have to pass, and that’s been an issue all season.
The pick: Packers -9
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)
Denver’s quarterbacking ordeal last weekend is one of those moments they will want to forget as quickly as possible. Drew Lock is back for this one but that doesn’t give me much confidence either. The Broncos offense ranks 32nd in DVOA and Lock is dead last in efficiency rating amongst quarterbacks with at least 200 snaps. The Chiefs on the other hand look like the best team in the NFL and their win over the Bucs should never have been as close as 27-24. As always I’ve got questions about their defense, but Patrick Mahomes and this offense are cooking and I’d expect them to run up the score pretty comfortably here.
The pick: Chiefs -13.5
Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Washington have been surprisingly competitive in recent weeks. The return of Alex Smith has galvanised the team and they’ve won three of their last five. Their two losses have come by a combined six points. The Steelers looked really lacklustre on Wednesday against the Ravens, particularly on offense. They’re a good team, but they still don’t look as good as their record. Washington’s defense is better than it gets credit for and I think they could make life difficult for Big Ben and co. That said, Washington haven’t faced a team over .500 since Week 5, where they lost resoundingly to the Rams. The Steelers will want to make a statement here.
The pick: Steelers -7
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-1)
The Bills were pretty lucky to come away with the win over the Chargers. They looked good for most of the game, but the three turnovers on consecutive fourth quarter drives was really worrying. The 49ers won too and did so in dramatic fashion with a walk-off field goal. Credit has to go to Kyle Shanahan for keeping this team competitive and with some big names back they looked much improved. Off-field issues will impact this one as the 49ers have been forced to move to Arizona due to coronavirus restrictions in Santa Clara. In all honesty I don’t understand this spread. Buffalo have their flaws but they are still the better team and I think they should win and cover in this one.
The pick: Bills +1
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
The Mike McCarthy era in Dallas really hasn’t started well. The Cowboys sit at the bottom of a terrible NFC East and after their 41-16 defeat to Washington the calls to move on after just one season are getting louder and louder. The bad news for Dallas fans is that they will have their work cut out in this one too. Baltimore haven’t confirmed whether or not Lamar Jackson will start, but I think they should have enough to get the win regardless of who is under center. Their defense remains one of the best in the NFL and their blitz-heavy approach is going to cause issues for a Dallas offensive line that ranks 22nd in pass-block win rate.
The pick: Ravens -7.5