It’s Week 13 and we are heading into the business end of the season. This weekend we have a number of epic contests to look forward to, include Titans-Eagles, 49ers-Dolphins, and Chiefs-Bengals. With that said, here are my picks against for all 15 games this weekend.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+3.5)
Both of these teams are coming off some shaky Week 12 performances. The Bills narrowly escaped with a win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, whilst the Patriots fell to the Vikings. Sean McDermott has had the best of this matchup in recent years, with the Bills winning four of the last five. I think they get the win again here too. New England’s defense is talented enough to keep it close, but not within the spread. The Bills will win and cover.
Pick: Bills -3.5
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+7)
The obvious narrative in this game will be the return of Deshaun Watson. Watson is set to make his first start as a Brown against the team that drafted him back in 2017. In reality I’d expect him to be rusty, having not stepped onto an NFL field in almost two years. One player who won’t be rusty is Nick Chubb, and I can see him taking advantage of a dire Texans run defense. Add in the growing discontent in the Texans’ locker room and I’m comfortable that the Browns will cover.
Pick: Browns -7
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
The Ravens will be keen to pick themselves up after another gut-wrenching loss in Week 12. Their habit of blowing late leads is becoming something of an unfortunate habit. With that being said, they don’t face much risk of that here. The Broncos’ offense reached its nadir last weekend as they failed spectacularly against the Panthers, whilst their defense was picked apart by Sam Darnold. This is a big spread, but I see no reason to trust a Broncos team in freefall.
Pick: Ravens -8
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+4.5)
There is one big question ahead of this game – who will we see at quarterback? For the Packers it sounds like Aaron Rodgers wants to play, but Jordan Love still seems to be an option after a brief cameo against the Eagles. There’s uncertainty for Chicago too, with Justin Fields still nursing a shoulder injury. The Bears predictably lacked any spark offensively without him and their injuries on defense are also racking up. That should be enough for Green Bay to win and cover.
Pick: Packers -4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (+1)
The Jaguars made an outstanding comeback last week against the Ravens, with Trevor Lawrence leading them on a game-winning drive that included a successful two-point conversion. This passing offense is legit too. Through 12 weeks they sit 11th in passing DVOA. The Lions on the other hand have shown some toughness in recent weeks, but they aren’t as good as this Jags team. I’d take Jacksonville to win and cover the spread.
Pick: Jaguars -1
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The question with the Jets has been around their offense, and things looked much better with Mike White at quarterback. White completed 22 of 28 pass attempts for 315 yards and three touchdowns last week. Doing that against an injury riddled Bears defense is one thing but doing it against a competent Vikings defense is another. As for Minnesota, they made light work of a good defense in New England last week and I think they similarly have enough to overcome the Jets here.
Pick: Vikings -3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1)
The Steelers looked good against the Colts in Week 12 and finally found some success with their running game. Kenny Pickett also looked good in that game, which should give them plenty of optimism for this weekend. The Falcons on the other hand will feel unlucky not to have beaten the Commanders last week. I think that these two are fairly evenly matched, and with home advantage I’d have to lean on Atlanta getting the upset.
Pick: Falcons +1
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5)
This feels like a game of the week contender. Tennessee might have lost last weekend, but they are still a very talented team. They are also perfectly set up to challenge this Eagles team. They possess an outstanding run defense that should limit a Philly offense that had over 300 yards on the ground in Week 12. The Titans also obviously have a punishing runner in Derrick Henry who can take advantage of an Eagles defense that ranks 24th in rushing DVOA this season. I think they could surprise people here.
Pick: Titans +5
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+2.5)
Washington came away with the win over the Falcons in Week 12. This was in no small part down to their stout run defense. That should help them again this week. The Giants’ offense only works when they can run the football, and that’s no guarantee here. Their defense on the other hand has been struggling to contain the run, and that’s bad news against a Washington team that is perfectly happy to run their offense through the backfield duo of Gibson and Robinson.
Pick: Commanders -2.5
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Mike McDaniel returns to San Francisco for another of Week 13’s great games. This will be a huge test for the Dolphins offense as they come up against an incredible 49ers defense. San Francisco haven’t allowed a single point through their last six quarters. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a plethora of weapons that a struggling Dolphins defense will have a tough time containing. I think the 49ers get the win here, but this Dolphins offense is good enough to keep things close.
Pick: Dolphins +4
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5)
The Rams’ offense without Matthew Stafford is absolutely dire. Bryce Perkins looked out of his depth last week and they have now added Allen Robinson to a growing list of inactives. As for Seattle, they struggled to pull away from Raiders after Vegas suffocated their run game. That might happen again here. The Rams defense has been far better against the run than the pass this season, sitting fifth and 26th in DVOA respectively. Seattle should win, but I think the Rams defense allows them to keep things close, even without Aaron Donald.
Pick: Rams +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+2)
This weekend we get a repeat of last season’s AFC Championship Game, and I can’t wait to watch it. Both offenses are on fire at the moment and defenses seemingly have no answers whatsoever. The Bengals should be getting some key weapons back too, with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase likely to return. That should help them to keep it close, but I’m struggling to bet against this Chiefs team at the moment.
Pick: Chiefs -2
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)
The narrative here is pretty obvious. The Chargers’ defense cannot stop the run for love nor money. Enter Josh Jacobs, who is fresh off a 300+ yard outing against the Seahawks, with 229 of those coming on the ground. I’m not sure I’m ready to buy into that though. The Chargers still have the better offense and can take advantage of a weak Raiders secondary. If they force Vegas into pass-heavy situations, they won’t have to worry about Jacobs at all.
Pick: Chargers -1.5
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-11)
The Colts might only have lost by seven points to the Steelers last week, but it was difficult to shake the feeling that the offense remains a problem. Nothing seems to come easily for them, particularly in the passing game. That could be a problem against a Cowboys defense that leads the NFL in DVOA. We also saw their defense get beaten by an otherwise underwhelming Steelers rushing attack. That makes you wonder what Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard might be capable of. This is a big spread, but the Cowboys should cover.
Pick: Cowboys -11
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
The Saints continue to be one of the most inconsistent and frustrating teams on a week-to-week basis, as evidenced by last week’s shutout loss to the 49ers. The Buccaneers aren’t particularly easy to get a handle on either. There’s plenty of stats I could throw out here, but one of them stands out and is difficult to shake. Andy Dalton has lost 12 consecutive primetime games, which is the most of any quarterback since the 1970 merger. Give me the Bucs to win and cover.
Pick: Buccaneers -3.5