Week 12 was full of action. We saw three games come down to last second field goals, with the Patriots and 49ers both securing upsets over their NFC West foes. The Bucs slipped to 7-5, whilst a Broncos team without a quarterback were predictably pummelled by the Saints. Here are the biggest takeaways and talking points from Week 12.
Mahomes and the Chiefs edge out the Bucs
This game looked set to be the best of the entire weekend, but by the end of the first quarter it looked like a blowout. The Chiefs led 17-0 and it could have been more had Andy Reid not taken a field goal from a yard out. The Bucs on the other hand punted on their opening four drives and had a single first down. It looked like we were about to see a repeat of the Saints-Bucs game from Week 9.
Tampa Bay got a lifeline though when Mahomes fumbled on 1st and goal and their offense slowly starting pulling things together. Brady had struggled with deep balls over the past few weeks but he showed signs of improvement here with a strong showing in the second half. After that Mahomes fumble the Bucs outscored the Chiefs 24-10, but they had dug themselves too deep a hole to climb out of.
The Chiefs will be pleased with the win, but their offensive performance in the second half will be something of a concern. This game should never have been within reach for the Bucs but the Chiefs are making a habit of leaving things close. They have now won their last three games by a combined eight points, with their defense giving up 28.6 per game. The troubles continue for the Bucs, who fall to 7-5 with an NFC South title looking almost impossible.
Derek Carr goes from hero to zero
The NFL has a habit of delivering up and down performances from teams and players alike. Nobody epitomised this more in Week 12 than Derek Carr. Despite the Raiders’ loss in Week 11, Carr played an almost perfect game against the Chiefs. He finished with 275 yards and three touchdowns and led all quarterbacks in EPA per play with 0.567. He also ranked third in CPOE.
Fast forward to this weekend and the script was well and truly flipped. The Raiders had easily their worst game of the season in a 43-6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Carr had four turnovers, including a pick six to Deion Jones, and finished the game with a QBR of just 14.3. The Raiders averaged an EPA per pass of -0.563, better than just the Rams and the Broncos. Their running game was terrible too, with their EPA per run of -1.068 almost twice as bad as any team this season.
Carr was eventually benched for Nathan Peterman in the fourth quarter. Given how the Raiders have been playing in recent weeks, this loss was certainly out of character, but it is still concerning. Their defense has been an issue all season and if they make this many mistakes on offense they have no chance to stay in contention. They will be hoping to put things right next week against the Jets.
Patricia and Quinn out in Detroit
The Lions fired Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn after their Thanksgiving loss to Houston. In truth, it felt like this decision had been coming for some time. The appointment never really lived up to expectations and Patricia ends his tenure with a 13-29-1 record. This game wasn’t as bad as the shutout against the Panthers, but the Lions were significantly outclassed in the 41-25 defeat.
The game started of in utterly chaotic fashion. The Lions had forced punts on Houston’s opening two drives and had a chance to make it 14-0. Matt Stafford then threw a pick six to J.J. Watt and on their next play the Lions fumbled the ball. After the Texans scored they fumbled again on their next drive and found themselves trailing 23-14 at the half.
The disappointment of the Patricia era is made all the worse when you consider what came before it. Quinn fired Jim Caldwell in 2018 after a 9-7 season and a winning record as head coach. They look like they will now finish bottom of the NFC North for the third straight season. This looks set to be a big offseason for Detroit and whoever takes over has a big rebuild on their hands.
Broncos Wildcat Woes
On Saturday night the Broncos announced they had no quarterbacks available due to violations of coronavirus rules. As a result they found themselves starting Kendall Hinton, a former college quarterback and practice squad receiver. Nobody expected them to win here but the performances by both sides were really poor.
It felt at times like we were watching a game from a different era, and for good reason. This was the first game since 1974 with 10 or fewer completions, 75 passing yards, no passing touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Saints managed -0.490 EPA per pass, whilst Denver had -1.174, the worst total by any team this season by a wide margin. The Broncos also became the first team since the 1998 Chargers to record more interceptions than completions in a game.
Whilst the Broncos’s struggles will be the big story, perhaps the most important and lasting takeaway was the lacklustre showing by the Taysom Hill-led Saints. As much as Sean Payton talks up Hill as a future starter, this was not an encouraging performance. Drew Brees should be back next week for the rematch against the Falcons and you feel like the Saints need him, despite the wins under Hill.
Cardinals kick costs them the win
Every weekend there is a result that just doesn’t seem to make sense. I’ve watched the Cardinals-Patriots game back a second time and still can’t quite work out how the Patriots won. They managed just 179 yards of offense all game and averaged 3.5 yards per play. Their EPA per dropback of -0.454 was their worst of the season and the ninth worst by any team in the 11 preceding weeks.
The killer blow for the Cardinals came in the fourth quarter, with the game tied at 17-17 and 1:52 on the clock. Arizona had a 4th and 1 at the Patriots’ 27-yard line and New England had burned the last of their timeouts. The sensible move here would have been to go for it on fourth down, where Arizona have been one of the better teams this year. Converting would have allowed them to grind out the clock and make a shorter kick. Instead, Kliff Kingsbury took the field goal, which Zane Gonzalez missed.
EdjSports calculated that the decision to take the field goal cost the Cardinals nearly 20 per cent in their pre-snap Game Winning Chance. Even if they had made it, it wasn’t the sensible play. There was almost two minutes left on the clock which is plenty of time for New England to get the ball into field goal range to tie the game. Despite Kingsbury’s record on fourth downs – the Cardinals rank third in aggressiveness – kicking field goals in 4th and short situations has cost them against Miami and New England. They now find themselves third in the NFC West, just one win ahead of San Francisco.
Week 12 MVP
Tyreek Hill – This could easily have gone to Mahomes who had an excellent day in the Chiefs’ 27-24 win. Hill edges it though, with the best performance of his career so far. He finished the game with 13 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns. 203 of those came in the first quarter and Hill becomes one of just three players in NFL history to have over 200 receiving yards in a quarter.
Stat of the week
12 – The number of consecutive losing seasons for the Browns before they snapped their streak this weekend. With their eighth win of the season the Browns end their 12 season run of sub .500 records, the second worst run in NFL history. The only team with a worse record is the 1983-1996 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs had just three winning seasons between 1976 and 1997.