It’s time for Week 12 and we have a bunch of interesting questions to consider this week. Is the Broncos’ turnaround legit? Which AFC South team is best set for the future? And what are the best matchups on offer this weekend?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, William Lane, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
The Broncos have now won their last four games, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. What do you make of this team? Are they contenders, or just pretenders?
Kev: It’s a really nice run the Broncos are on, especially when you consider the teams they have beaten. Beating the Bills in Buffalo is always difficult, as is putting Green Bay away and dampening the NFC’s form team in the Vikings. Let’s not forget they also beat the Chiefs!
In the past four games they have played smart football, forced turnovers, and given their offense good field position. The secondary looks like a settled unit with Ja’Quan McMillan filling a troublesome spot at nickel. They’ve reduced offensive turnovers too. In the last four games they’ve coughed up two fumbles after turning it over 11 times in the previous five games. Wilson has always been a quarterback who has taken care of the ball and Sean Payton’s influence on this offense is becoming clearer.
I am concerned at how easily teams are running on the Broncos, but the recent spate of quarterback injuries to AFC contenders means their odds are improving. That would be some achievement following the doom and gloom of the season’s start.
Tayyib: I think ‘contenders’ is a bit strong, but we do have to praise the turnaround. After the Miami game, it felt like the season could go awry. However, Sean Payton and the team have found ways to stay in games. That alone is helping them profit from turnovers and opponent mistakes, while Russell Wilson has made enough big throws to win.
I don’t think they are a team that will make much noise in the playoffs if they qualify. Nonetheless, these are positive steps for a franchise that looked ready to fracture after the 70-point game. Sean Payton and the locker room have gelled.
Jack: I have to say I’m very impressed. After all, you can’t win four straight games by luck alone. It’s even more impressive when you consider who they have beaten in this run. They got the better of the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Packers. Granted, three of those wins came by a combined five points, but they are still making real strides.
This team was abominably bad through the first three weeks, but since then they have been solid. Since Week 4, they rank 19th in offensive EPA per play and 17th on defense. Sean Payton has the team molded in his image and this looks much more like the team we were all expecting in the preseason.
As for what the rest of the season holds, I don’t see them being contenders. Denver is +11 in turnover differential through their four wins and that sort of luck is bound to regress. It feels like this could be a sneaky wildcard team, but I don’t see much more than that.
We have a potential Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes between the Giants and Patriots this weekend. How do you see this one playing out?
Kev: It seems inconceivable that these two are lurking in the top five for next year’s draft. I’m going to be petty and say I want the Patriots to get a little better – it’s not fair (yes I am crying) that they should have a chance at another franchise quarterback. I’d prefer them to suffer mediocrity for a while like the rest of us.
As for the game, these two teams stink on offense – there’s no other way to describe them. Both are bottom seven in third down conversion rate. They are 31st and 32nd in points per game and bottom six in red zone scoring attempts per game. I could find more I’m sure, but this game is for fans only.
I’d be amazed if any neutral tunes into this one. I’d imagine Mr Belichick will concentrate all his efforts on stopping Saquon Barkley. I’ll pick the Patriots to win it (bet the under), leaving the Giants with some massive decisions to make down the stretch and into the offseason.
Tayyib: Man, this is not a fun game! The Patriots are keeping the identity of their starting quarterback a mystery, but I cannot see Mac Jones starting. Therefore, Bailey Zappe, Will Grier or Malik Cunningham could get the nod. Ultimately, irrespective of the quarterback, this Patriots offense will not click into gear.
As for Tommy DeVito, he played well last week. But Bill Belichick’s defenses will constantly test and puzzle young quarterbacks. Is DeVito good enough to solve those problems? I’m not sure. This game will come down to who commits less turnovers and which offense can convert short fields into touchdowns. It won’t be high-scoring. And one or two mistakes could decide it.
Jack: How the mighty have fallen! Memories of these two illustrious franchises slugging it out for Lombardi trophies are fading fast. Both of these teams feel like they have well and truly hit rock bottom and they would both likely do anything to have a chance at securing one of the top two quarterbacks in the upcoming class.
In terms of how I see it playing out, the answer is badly. Tommy DeVito may have led the Giants to a win last week, but his tenure as a starter hasn’t exactly been pretty. He still sits 38th in EPA+CPOE composite, a metric that measures the value of a play and how much the quarterback is responsible for that value. He had an almost unfathomable 90% pressure-to-sack rate in Week 11.
Mac Jones is scarcely any better, sitting 34th and sandwiched between Bryce Young and Kenny Pickett. We still don’t know if he will start this weekend after his benching against the Colts in Week 10. These two offenses represent the nadir of the NFL and it is going to be very painful viewing.
The Jaguars and Texans face off in a battle of the AFC South. Both teams have looked good this season and both are helmed by young quarterbacks, but which do you feel most confident about for 2023 and beyond?
Kev: Now this is a better game! Both teams are in a good spot moving forward. The Jaguars wasted the first year of Lawrence’s rookie deal so they really need to be lining up a deep postseason run this year to go all out to challenge next year (I’m wondering if they think allocating $45 million of their cap space to Christian Kirk and Foyesade Oluokon is a good idea for next year!).
Texans fans will be over the moon with how this season is going and how far ahead of schedule they are. I can’t imagine the organisation expected to feel this good about their quarterback and head coach after such a short space of time.
The matchup should be interesting with Stroud looking to attack deep and Devin Singletary feasting on lighter boxes after going over 100 yards in each of the last two games. However this defensive front is one of the tougher ones the Texans will face. Big “Trev” Lawrence looked to be moving better this past week but are we ever going to see him elevate to the level of a top five QB or is he just going to be a guy who’s “good enough” but not next level?
Tayyib: This isn’t easy! I still believe Trevor Lawrence is the superior talent, but DeMeco Ryans has a magnetic personality and is an exceptional leader. I still think the Jags are in a better spot long-term.
The Texans still have some aspects of their team to build, while the Jaguars have a world-class quarterback with a head coach who has won the Super Bowl and done the job at the highest level. I am buying the known quantity of Doug Pederson over DeMeco Ryans, but this is a nasty question.
Jack: This is a really tough one. The Jaguars have already shown themselves to be a legitimate postseason team under Doug Pederson and we know for certain that Trevor Lawrence is one of the game’s very best quarterbacks. Now that they have an exceptional defense it is hard to look past them as the best team in the AFC South in 2023.
When we are talking 2024 and beyond things get tougher, and I’m inclined to side with the Texans. After all, Houston will enter the offseason with over $85 million in cap space to play with. They have a star quarterback tied into a cost-controlled rookie deal for three more seasons – the Jaguars only have one more year on Lawrence’s rookie deal.
DeMeco Ryans’ ability to get the most out of his team has been evident every single week. This is a team that is playing far better than the sum of its parts. Bobby Slowik looks like one of the brightest young offensive coordinators in football – what’s not to like?
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 12?
Kev: I’m wondering if anyone wants to win the NFC South. Anyone? This weekend we have the first matchup of this season between the Saints and the Falcons. I said on here a few weeks ago that the Week 18 game between these two could decide the division and that is still on the cards.
Both teams are coming off a bye, so they should be well rested and well prepared. They both had poor losses and poor performances in Week 10. Can the Saints offense finally get some consistency and string together consecutive scoring drives? Will the Falcons finally put the ball in the hands of their best offensive player more than a handful of times a game?
If either (or both) of these teams fail to make the playoffs is it a Black Monday facility visit for both head coaches? It may not be the most exciting matchup this weekend but it certainly has some high stakes.
Tayyib: Bills and Eagles for me. Buffalo finally played a ruthless game against the Jets. The Bills have been fine all season, but red zone inefficiency and mistakes have plagued them. The Eagles are not playing at last year’s level, but they are seizing opportunities in every game.
This game feels like an acid test for Buffalo. Philly can win in multiple ways; I am unsure whether the Bills can. And I also worry about them defending AJ Brown. Buffalo’s defense has been in the bottom 10 in EPA per play since they returned from London, but if Buffalo are to haul themselves into a playoff spot, they will need to win.
Jack: For me it is how this Chargers defense holds up against the Ravens. Baltimore has been rampant this season and are capable of moving the ball effectively on the ground or through the air. Lamar Jackson is playing some of the best football of his career and it feels like they will be very tough to stop.
A lot has been written about the struggles that the Chargers and Brandon Staley are having this season, especially on defense. As things stand they are 28th in success rate allowed, just behind the Giants and narrowly better than the Panthers. If the Ravens hit their stride early this could get ugly. Could a bad defeat cost Brandon Staley his job?