Week 11 is already here and with that we have some good points of discussion. Who is the best team in the NFL? What is the dream Super Bowl matchup? And which wide receiver is most valuable to their respective offense? Our regular trio of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, and Jack Brentnall answer all of this and more.
With the Eagles losing to Washington on Monday Night Football, we’ve no longer got any unbeaten teams left and maybe no clear frontrunner at the top of Power Rankings. At this point who would you pick as the best team in the NFL?
Kev: I think overall the Chiefs have to be looked at as the superior all-round team. Let’s remember following the Tyreek Hill trade their offense was being “re-tooled” and was meant to take a backwards step. Any team going through Arrowhead in the playoffs are in for a hard time. I think the Dolphins deserve a mention as they are one of the scariest teams. The addition of Hill partnered with Waddle gives them that explosive play ability to either close a lead if trailing or extend a lead to throttle an opposing team.
This is a world the Chiefs have previously lived in with that injection of pace on offense. The Dolphins are second highest scorers in the NFL behind the Chiefs but are in the bottom third of the NFL when it comes to offensive plays per game. Their 6.4 yards per play is second and sandwiches them between Buffalo above them and KC beneath. This includes three games without Tua of course. Nobody is going to want to play this team.
Tayyib: I still believe in the Philadelphia Eagles. An 8-1 start has underlined that they are the best team. The Eagles are second in average winning margin, fourth in offensive DVOA, and fifth in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are consistently good across all categories and have the best record in the NFL. One defeat should not change that. Philly has the right balance of strength in the trenches, skillful playmakers, and a good balance of youth and experience. They will take some stopping.
Jack: There are a number of teams in contention here but for me it is the Chiefs. Some will have doubts about their defense, but with an offense this good it really doesn’t matter. I think we have gotten so used to the Mahomes-Andy Reid combo that we aren’t giving this unit the credit they deserve. The offense leads the NFL in points per drive at 2.87. For context, this would be the second highest mark of the Mahomes era, behind only his MVP-winning season in 2018.
The Chiefs also lead the NFL in drive success rate and offensive DVOA. The only team that is even remotely close to them in the latter is the Miami Dolphins. They have only lost two games this season, with one coming against the high-powered Bills and the other being a fluky loss to Matt Ryan and the Colts. They are the team to beat as far as I’m concerned.
With 10 weeks in the books, we’re getting a feel for what the postseason is going to look like. If you could decide on your perfect Super Bowl matchup for 2022, what would it be and why?
Kev: Outside of bias for the Vikings I think a Miami/Kansas City vs 49ers game gives me everything I like in a matchup, namely great explosive offense against suffocating defense. A lot depends on the fitness of the 49ers’ players but there’s something about “an unstoppable force vs an immovable object” style of game. I may be one of the only people I know who loved Super Bowl LIII between the Rams and the Patriots. I find it odd that nobody is talking about any team seriously who has a decent offense and a top five defense.
The media narrative is always around the QB for a team and what they can achieve on offense, which to an extent is understandable. Very rarely have we seen any team win the whole thing with a bottom 15 defense. Miami are bottom third of the league in opponent yards per game, yards per play and opponent third down success percentage. At some point their offense may not click and it will be defense and special teams that need to win the game for them.
Tayyib: Thinking with pure emotion, I would love to see a Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl. In the blue corner, the Bills hoping to land that elusive championship. In the red, their old rival Tom Brady and the Bucs. It would be huge. From a footballing perspective, Philadelphia and Kansas City would be fascinating to watch. Either of those would be perfect.
Jack: I’d love to see the Eagles face off against either Kansas City of Buffalo. Despite their loss last week I still firmly believe the Eagles are the clear best team in the NFC. They have a great offense and a suffocating defense. Seeing how those two units face up against either of the AFC juggernauts would be fascinating. With that being said, there is part of me that would love to embrace the total chaos of a Vikings-Dolphins Super Bowl.
Last weekend we saw some standout performances from wide receivers (Justin Jefferson I’m looking at you). We all know who the elite guys are, but which receiver do you think is most important to their respective offense?
Kev: I’m gonna stay with the star in purple and say Justin Jefferson. Under the previous regime the passing game was used to complement the run game with explosive play action downfield passes. Under the old school coaching style of Mike Zimmer, the Vikings wanted to be a run-first team despite the NFL trending in the opposite direction. Kirk Cousins has his critics – some of it is justified, whilst some is due to lazy journalism and a tired narrative. One thing Cousins is and always has been, is very robotic. If there is a play structure and defined reads, he will follow them like a piece of computer code.
What I have seen this year is Cousins is now willing to force the ball into tight windows. The reason is he now has a superstar as his leading receiver. Jefferson’s lean frame and elasticity at the top of his route stem make him extremely awkward to read as a covering defender. You can watch highlight reels of him and pause at a certain point and have no clue which way he’s going to cut. He also does this seemingly with an easy transition rather than a violent hip sink.
In EPA since 2020 Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL on third and fourth down. This weekend he also passed Odell Beckham and Randy Moss in having 20 receiving games over 100 yards in his first three seasons. He still has eight games of this season left! Having this as your primary option makes Cousins a better player and gives him the confidence to take more chances, if the Vikings are going to have postseason success, risks will have to be taken.
And as for that catch…
Tayyib: The wide receiver most important to his respective team? The only answer is Amon Ra St. Brown. The relentless former USC Trojan has been the one consistent part of the Detroit Lions’ passing game since last season. Don’t believe me? Last Sunday against the Chicago Bears, St. Brown hauled in ten passes on 11 targets for 119 yards. Kalif Raymond was second in receptions, with three. St. Brown is third in Lions history to have four 100-yard receiving games. He is eighth all-time in most receptions during the first 25 games of his career. Since returning the full fitness, St. Brown has helped Detroit average 25.6 points per game. In his absence, the Lions averaged three points per game. Until Detroit unleashes Jameson Williams, St. Brown will remain the offensive key.
Jack: This is a really tough one and I think there are a few good answers. With that being said, for me it is Tyreek Hill. I don’t think it is a coincidence that Miami’s offense has exploded since his arrival. Perhaps more than any other player in football, Hill impacts what you do on defense. He has the game-breaking speed to separate consistently. It is suicide to leave him in man coverage, but if you sit back and play soft zone he’ll slice you open with his YAC ability.
Hill is on pace for a historic season, with 81 catches for 1,148 yards already this season. He leads the league with 3.69 yards per route run, which would be an NFL record if he sustains it. If you want some context on just how unplayable Hill has been, the gap between Hill and second place Stefon Diggs in yards per route run is larger as the gap between Diggs and Chris Olave, who ranks 12th.
Week 11 has some exciting fixtures, with a number of noteworthy divisional matchups thrown in for good measure. Which game are you most looking forward to and why?
Kev: I like Chargers-Chiefs from a perspective of watching two young stars of the game go against each other. This fixture appearing twice a year makes me very happy. Vikings-Cowboys has star appeal. But let’s go to a divisional rivalry with the Jets at Patriots. Are the Jets contenders? Can we take them seriously? Robert Saleh was under serious pressure coming into this season following their woeful defensive performances last year. With an influx of draft capital and the return to fitness of some key acquisitions, this group has turned it around significantly. Sauce Gardner has become a legitimate lockdown corner and was our midseason DROY winner. The backend coverage and pressure up front see them sit fourth in net yards allowed per attempt. The question mark however is and will continue to be around the inconsistent play of Zach Wilson.
We’ve seen this story many times with Belichick’s defenses against young quarterbacks. Since 2003 rookie and second-year QBs have a record of 3-43 in the Patriots back yard. The Patriots have won the last 13 games against the Jets and will have the longest active streak over an opponent if they win this weekend. Can the Jets do enough and dim the lights for Wilson? Betting against the Patriots would be a bold call, but the streak has to end at some point!
Tayyib: How about the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals? The Bengals are 0-3 in the division, and with Baltimore 6-3, divisional wins will be critical in deciding the AFC North’s fate. Cincinnati annihilated the Carolina Panthers in their last outing before enjoying the bye week. During the bye, the Bengals will have watched the Steelers defeat the New Orleans Saints. Pittsburgh welcomed reigning DPOY TJ Watt back from injury, and Watt propelled the Steelers’ defense to a solid performance. The Bengals have played inconsistently; their largest winning margin is 22 points. Their biggest losing margin is 19 points. At their best, the Bengals are exhilarating. At their worst, they are mystifying. Falling 0-4 in the division is non-negotiable. Good teams beat bad teams. The Bengals must dispose of a poor Pittsburgh team.
Jack: It’s Chiefs-Chargers for me for a number of reasons. The first and most obvious is getting to see two of the games’ great young quarterbacks duel it out. Mahomes has been the best quarterback in football as far as I’m concerned, whilst Herbert seems to be improving after suffering a rib injury the last time the two teams met. There’s also the fact that the game earlier this season was one of the most entertaining battles of the season so far.
The other reason is that this game will be pivotal in deciding the future of the AFC West. The Chiefs sit at 7-2 with a two-win lead over the 5-4 Chargers. A win for Kansas City would effectively end the divisional race for the season and could cast doubt over the Chargers’ playoff potential. A loss for the Chiefs would see the gap close to one game and the divisional race re-open.
Which player matchup are you looking forward to watching in Week 11?
Kev: If I cast my mind back to Week 1, I recall the beatdown the Steelers’ front gave to the Bengals offensive line. This week, we see the return fixture. Unfortunately, the Steelers’ defense had an injury to key member TJ Watt in that fixture and have not been the same team without him. The only two wins they’ve picked up since that Bengals victory were against the NFC South (albeit one of those was against Tampa). With Watt now back and fit, the Steelers’ front five once more has a foreboding presence.
Cam Heyward beat up the interior last time and specifically picked on guard Cordell Volson, taking his lunch money for the entire year ahead. Add AFC Defensive Player of the Week Alex Highsmith to the mix and we will once again see how the Achilles heel of the Bengals offense will perform against one of the better units. According to PFF pass blocking grades, Jonah Williams and La’el Colllins are rated 57th and 70th out of 75 players at the respective position. How much stock you put into PFF grades is up to you, but you can’t be convinced by either player right now. We’ll see in this weekend’s matchup if lessons have been learned from the last confrontation.
Tayyib: Micah Parsons vs. Christian Darrisaw will be fun to watch! Parson registered zero pressures last Sunday. On the other hand, Darrisaw has played at a Pro Bowl/All-Pro level. Darrisaw is second in pressure percentage allowed. He is only behind Tristan Wirfs in that metric. Darrisaw’s effortless power allows him to negate pass rushers. Pro Football Focus currently ranks Darrisaw second amongst all offensive tackles. The youngster is currently in concussion protocol, however if he gets clearance to play, it will be fun to watch him and Parsons go at it. It just might decide the game.
Jack: The game itself might not be the most entertaining, but I’m interested to watch Chris Olave face off against Jalen Ramsey. Olave has been hugely impressive throughout the first half of his rookie season. With injuries elsewhere in the receiver room he’s been forced into the WR1 role for New Orleans and thrived. Through 10 weeks he ranks 12th in yards per route run.
The Rams will no doubt do everything they can to stop Olave and I’d expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow him for much of the afternoon. Both players are comfortable moving around the formation, spending time on the boundary and in the slot. Whoever wins this matchup could have a big impact on the outcome of a game that is a must-win for both teams.