If you are thinking of laying a bet on the upcoming weekend of NFL action, it is always smart to maximise value and target the spread early in the week. Here are three picks against the spread you should consider ahead of Week 11.
Houston Texans (-4) vs Arizona Cardinals
You can’t talk about the Texans this season without mentioning CJ Stroud. The rookie has been phenomenal and is having the best debut season from a quarterback in recent memory. After a marquee performance against the Bucs in Week 10 he led the Texans on another game-winning drive against the Bengals. This offense is well and truly humming and since Week 7 they rank seventh in the NFL in EPA per play.
In Week 11 they face off against the Cardinals who, despite their win last week, are still a team beset by problems on both sides of the ball. Arizona’s defense is 30th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate. The offense was also a little hit and miss in Kyler Murray’s first game back. That’s to be expected, but it still doesn’t give you a tonne of confidence that they can hold up against a rampant Texans team.
Dallas Cowboys (-11) vs Carolina Panthers
I know it was only the Tommy DeVito led Giants, but the Cowboys looked absolutely superb in Week 10. They moved the ball effortlessly, looking good on the ground and through the air. Their defense was predictably suffocating too. Through ten weeks, the Cowboys’ defense is third in the NFL in EPA per play, behind only the Browns and Ravens.
That’s bad news for Carolina. The Panthers are out of sorts on offense. Bryce Young looks panicked in the pocket, the offensive line cannot hold up in pass protection, and their receivers are creating no separation. I just cannot see a world in which they manage to move the ball effectively against a unit as good as Dallas’. Even with a double digit spread I’m liking the Cowboys here.
Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks may have only just managed to squeak past the Commanders in Week 10, but don’t let that distract you from the talent on this team. This is after all an offense that sits eighth in the NFL in success rate and they have managed to produce a league-average defense to pair with that. They managed to put up almost 500 total yards against Washington whilst averaging a massive 6.6 yards per play.
I’m not sure how good I feel about the Rams holding up against them. Los Angeles has struggled on defense, particularly against the pass where they are 25th in dropback success rate. There’s also still a bit of doubt at quarterback. Whilst Matthew Stafford is reportedly hopeful of a return from his thumb injury, we don’t know whether this will happen. Even if it does he may be limited as a passer given the nature of a throwing hand injury.