If you are looking for betting value, player props are a good place to start. We are sharing four of our favourite player prop bets from Week 10 and why we think they are worth betting on.
Deshaun Watson – Under 188.5 passing yards
188.5 passing yards is an incredibly low total, but I am still very much inclined to take the under with Watson this weekend. After all, he’s been pretty abysmal this year, sitting 22nd in EPA+CPOE composite, putting him right between Justin Fields and Ryan Tannehill. The Browns also have a bottom five unit in both EPA per dropback and dropback success rate.
You then add in the matchup this weekend. Watson is facing a ferocious Ravens defense that has been absolutely excellent all year. They are allowing an average of just 170.7 passing yards per game. Their 10.3% adjusted sack rate is the second highest in football and the Browns are down to their backup left tackle and third string right tackle.
Saquon Barkley – Over 63.5 rushing yards
In last week’s column I had Barkley going over his rushing prop and he duly delivered. The matchup is tougher this weekend as the Giants prepare to face the Cowboys, but I am confident he will do it again. For starters, he is still getting some crazy volume, despite the Giants often trailing. Through his six outings this season he is averaging 21 carries per game.
There’s also the quarterback situation. The Giants are set to start Tommy DeVito, and they will be keen to avoid any reliance on the passing game as a result. You can also add in an underwhelming Dallas run defense. Whilst they haven’t allowed a tonne of explosive plays, they are allowing opponents to run efficiently. Through nine weeks they are allowing the second highest rushing success rate in the NFL.
Derrick Henry – Over 11.5 receiving yards
Henry is known more for his rushing than his receiving, but this prop makes a lot of sense. Since Will Levis took over as the Titans’ starter we have seen a stylistic shift in their offense. One of the biggest changes has been the number of screens they throw. Amongst quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, Levis leads the league with a 17.3% screen rate.
That’s given Henry an increased workload in the passing game. His targets per game have jumped from 1.8 per game to 3.5 per game since Levis took over. When you factor in that they are facing a blitz-happy Bucs defense you can very easily see how Henry makes his way to at least 12 receiving yards.
George Pickens – Over 42.5 receiving yards
Pickens has made headlines for all the wrong reasons over the last two weeks. He notably finished Week 9 with -1 receiving yards on his five targets, before stirring things up with some social media posts. This might make you wary of taking the over on his receiving prop this weekend, but I think there’s a reason for optimism.
The Packers’ secondary is very much beatable and this weekend it could get worse. Jaire Alexander has missed time in practice and with Rasul Douglas traded away, Green Bay could find themselves starting Carrington Valentine and Corey Ballentine at cornerback. Even if Diontae Johnson is taking over the WR1 role, this is still a Packers defense allowing over 60 yards per game to opposing WR2s per FTN. Pickens could be in for a big performance.