We’re ten weeks in and the respective division races are hotting up. This weekend we’ve got a handful of excellent interdivisional matchups that have big implications for the playoffs, including Colts-Titans, Seahawks-Rams, and potentially Vikings-Bears.
2020 Against the spread record: 68-61-3
2020 Straight up record: 91-40-1
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Thursday, 8:20pm ET
Point spread: Colts -1
Over/Under: 48.5
It was a tale of two halves for the Colts last week against the Ravens. They dominated in the first half and held Baltimore to 55 yards, before failing to score after halftime and managing a single yard in the entire third quarter. Philip Rivers continues to be one of the more erratic quarterbacks in the NFL on a week-to-week basis but despite the loss they still in contention for the AFC South.
The Titans are one win ahead of them at 6-2. Their 24-17 win over the Bears was more dominant than the scoreline suggests as Chicago were shutout for the first three quarters. The regression of Tannehill is a concern though. Through his first four games he ranked third in quarterback efficiency, but has dropped all the way to 17th in his last four.
This should be a close game and I’m taking the Colts to win and cover the spread. Their second half performance last week was concerning but I think their defense could cause a tonne of problems for Tennessee.
Picks: Colts -1, Over 48.5
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Browns -3
Over/Under: 49
Despite Deshaun Watson’s best efforts, this Houston team has struggled all season. Their two wins have both come against the Jags and they almost lost to sixth rounder Jake Luton in his first NFL start last weekend. They’ve seen a drop in production both sides of the ball this season. Last year they ranked 8th in offensive EPA per play and 25th in defensive EPA per play. This season they are 14th and 31st respectively.
For the Browns the season has been a pretty mixed bag. Despite their 5-2 record, they actually hold the worst point differential in the AFC North at -31 and Baker Mayfield has looked erratic. His issue has been dealing with pressure, where he has averaged 4.1 yards per attempt and just a 41.8 per cent completion rate. On his 68 pressured dropbacks he’s had four picks and taken 11 sacks.
Luckily for the Browns they are facing a Texans team who rank 27th in pressure rate at just 18.5 per cent. They also have the league’s worst run defense and these factors should combine to give the Browns the win. Deshaun Watson will always do his best to keep things competitive but I’m taking the Browns to cover and they are my lock of the week.
Picks: Browns -3, Under 49
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Packers -13.5
Over/Under: 50.5
There were brief signs of life from this Jags team early on this season but they are now without a win since Week 1 and look as bad as many predicted. Jake Luton impressed in his debut but there still wasn’t enough to get the win over the Texans. Their schedule looks tough too and they face teams over .500 in all but one of their remaining eight games.
After Week 9 the Packers find themselves with a bit of breathing room at the top of the NFC North. They looked good against the 49ers, though given the depleted roster they were facing that was to be expected. Their defense is still a concern but at the midway point they are home to PFF’s highest graded quarterback and receiver and seem happy to outscore opponents in shootouts.
This should be a comfortable win for the Packers and I’m taking them to cover despite the size of the spread. The Jags are allowing a league-worst 0.394 EPA per dropback and Aaron Rodgers should take full advantage with Jones and Bakhtiari both back to start.
Picks: Packers -13.5, Under 50.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Eagles -3
Over/Under: 44.5
The NFC East has been entertaining for all the wrong reasons this year. The Eagles are somehow still the division leaders despite a 3-4-1 start and they are the only one not projected to be picking inside the top five of the draft. Its teams have combined for just two wins against non NFC-East teams in 26 attempts this season.
The Giants managed to beat Washington last week but it wasn’t a great performance. Their offense couldn’t stretch the field and they gave up double digit pressures for the 11th straight game. That win means that Daniel Jones is now 4-0 in games against Washington and 1-17 in his career against all other teams.
I’m not expecting much from this one but I think that the Eagles should get the win and cover. Philly caused problems in the passing game when these two faced off in Week 7. They did that without Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders who are back for this one and I think they will have too much for the Giants.
Picks: Eagles -3, Over 44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Buccaneers -5.5
Over/Under: 50.5
The Saints and Bucs were meant to deliver a Sunday night spectacle last weekend. In reality it was a blowout and the worst loss of Tom Brady’s career. Things were a mess on both sides of the ball and of the 28 teams to play in Week 9 the Bucs ranked 28th and 22th in offensive and defensive EPA respectively. With a poor showing against the Giants in Week 8 their performances are trending in the wrong direction.
The Panthers meanwhile came close to upsetting the Chiefs last week but in the end suffered their fourth straight loss and find themselves at the bottom of the NFC South. Despite the best efforts of Teddy Bridgewater this is a team held back by a secondary struggling to cover and a defensive line creating pressure on just 18.1 per cent of passing downs.
The Bucs were poor last week but I can’t see them being that bad in consecutive games. I think they win and cover based on the strength of their defense. They are the most blitz-heavy team in the NFL and have the second highest pressure rate behind the Steelers. This doesn’t bode well for Bridgewater, who ranks 27th in passer rating under pressure.
Picks: Buccaneers -5.5, Over 50.5
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1pm ET
Point spread: Lions -4.5
Over/Under: 46.5
After eight games Washington find themselves at 2-6. They’re now on their third quarterback of the season and it looks like Dwayne Haskins’ career as a starter in the capital is over before it really began. So far the team are winless against non-NFC East teams yet find themselves second in the conference and just one win behind the Eagles.
The Lions haven’t been great either and if it weren’t for a fortunate last second win over the Falcons in Week 7 they would be winless in their last five. They are at 3-5 but you get the feeling that a loss here could mark the end of Matt Patricia’s head coaching tenure. Matthew Stafford will play this weekend despite his concussion against the Vikings, but they will likely still be without Kenny Golladay which is a huge loss.
I’m not overly keen on either team here. Washington’s defense is better than it is given credit for, but I’m still not sure how much we can expect from an offense led by Alex Smith. I’m taking the Lions for the win but I think that Washington should keep this close and beat the spread.
Picks: Washington +4.5, Under 46.5
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Point spread: Cardinals -2.5
Over/Under: 56
Buffalo delivered a surprise win over the Seahawks last week and this offense finally looked like the team we saw over the first few weeks of the season. They were helped by facing a historically poor secondary, but Josh Allen thrived with their pass-heavy attack and they just about held it together on defense.
The Cardinals will have been disappointed with the final result against Miami. They had plenty of opportunities to win the game and Zane Gonzales coming up short on a 49 yard game-tying field goal is bound to hurt. There were positives though – Kingsbury’s offense is beginning to take shape and Kyler Murray looks excellent. They also seem to have finally assembled a competent defense.
This game could be big for both teams in terms of divisional significance. The Cardinals can still take the NFC West, whilst the Bills would add some breathing room at the top of the AFC East with a win. I think that the Bills could pull off the upset here and I have them winning and beating the spread.
Picks: Bills +2.5, Over 56
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Point spread: Raiders -4.5
Over/Under: 51
Its difficult to pin down this Broncos team and their identity shifts not only game-to-game, but quarter-to-quarter. In their last two games they have looked pretty abject in the first half, averaging three points and 78.5 yards of offense. The second half has seen them average 26 points and 298.5 yards. This may be a result of halftime coaching adjustments but the fact they aren’t starting games right is concerning.
Drew Lock took advantage of the Falcons’ poor secondary last week and is presented with a similar opportunity against the Raiders. They were lucky to come away with the win against the Chargers and I think that this game has the potential to be a closely fought affair. It all depends on which version of this Denver offense we get in the first half.
I think this could be a surprisingly good game but on the whole the Raiders should have too much for Denver. I’m taking them to cover the spread and I think that I would take the under in this scenario as well.
Picks: Raiders -4.5, Under 51
LA Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Point spread: Dolphins -2.5
Over/Under: 48
Given all of the praise going the Chargers’ way it seems odd at first to find them at 2-6. They have themselves to blame, breaking the NFL record by blowing four consecutive 16 point leads. Last week they nearly flipped the script, before their game winning touchdown was overturned and ruled an incomplete pass. Justin Herbert may be the rookie of the year but the team is some way off where it needs to be.
The Dolphins on the other hand may just be the real deal this season. Brian Flores has seemingly turned this team around and they are led by a defense allowing the second best EPA per dropback in the NFL. Tua looked impressive against the Cardinals too and the decision to bench Fitzpatrick increasingly looks vindicated at 5-3 behind the Bills in the AFC East.
This should be an exciting matchup between two of the league’s best young quarterbacks. I’m anticipating a close game and whilst the Dolphins are the better team, I can’t help but feel that the Chargers could deliver an upset here.
Picks: Chargers +2.5, Over 48
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Point spread: Steelers -7
Over/Under: 46.5
The Steelers are 8-0 for the first time in their history, but somehow they don’t look like the best team in the NFL. This obviously isn’t helped by last week’s game against the Cowboys and they were fortunate to come away with the win. Their defense is clearly elite but questions remain about how much this offense can do.
The Bengals have struggled at 2-5-1 but have a point differential of just -20. Burrow has been impressive and, for me, the best rookie quarterback so far this season. The big issue has been his offensive line and he has been under pressure on 33 per cent of his dropbacks this season. This will be even more of an issue against this Steelers defense.
I think that the Steelers will win this but Burrow and the Bengals have a knack of staying in games even when they shouldn’t. I’ve not got enough faith that this Steelers offense can breakaway from Cincinnati and Big Ben potentially missing the game is a big concern from a betting perspective. I’m taking Burrow to beat the spread once again.
Picks: Bengals +7, Under 46.5
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Point spread: Rams -2
Over/Under: 55.5
If the NFC East has been the league’s worst division, the NFC West is making up for it with one of the bests contests we’ve seen in recent years. The Seahawks are separated from the Cardinals and Rams by a single win and the 49ers still aren’t out of contention at 4-5.
There are legitimate question marks about this Seattle defense. Right now it is on pace to become the worst pass defense in NFL history, beating 2011 Packers by almost 1,000 yards. That said, the Packers made it to the Divisional Championship that year and the Chiefs have shown a top defense isn’t necessary to be successful.
On paper this looks like one of the best games of the weekend and I think it will be a close one. I don’t think either side looked great in their last outing but the Seahawks should have enough on offense to cause problems for L.A. and I have them beating the spread and winning here.
Picks: Seahawks +2, Over 54.5
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Point spread: Saints -9.5
Over/Under: 50.5
After a tough start to the season, the Saints are now unbeaten in their last five and look like one of the best teams in the NFC. Drew Brees’ is clearly not the player he once was, but he is finding ways to get it done. Everything clicked last week against the Bucs and whilst I don’t expect a repeat of that, it shows that this team really is as capable as we thought before the start of the season.
The 49ers may be last in the NFC West, but it somehow feels like Kyle Shanahan has overachieved so far this season. They’ve been without most of their stars on both sides of the ball for the majority of games yet are somehow staying competitive at 4-5. Last week’s showing against the Packers was bad, but they get Trent Williams and Richard Sherman back for this one.
I’ve still got my reservations about this Saints team but I’m taking them to win and cover the spread. The 49ers are down to just two healthy receivers and it is difficult not to be alarmed at how terrible their defense looked last week.
Picks: Saints -9, Under 49
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Sunday, 8:20pm ET
Point spread: Ravens -7.5
Over/Under: 41.5
At the halfway point of the season the Ravens find themselves with exactly the same record as they had in 2019. The narrative surrounding it is completely different though, with concerns about the effectiveness of Lamar Jackson and this offense. They’ve still been putting up points, but they haven’t yet looked like the team that were steamrollering their opponents last season.
Things are even worse in New England and despite their win against the Jets last weekend they still find themselves at 3-5. The lack of talent at receiver is a serious problem and even on defense this team hasn’t been nearly as reliable as you would expect from a Belichick coached team. The team current rank 21st in EPA allowed per play.
I had the Ravens as my lock of the week last weekend against the Colts and I’m taking them to win and cover again in this one. The Patriots have been surprisingly poor in run defense and that really doesn’t bode well against this Ravens team.
Picks: Ravens -7, Over 43.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Monday, 8:15pm ET
Point spread: Vikings -2.5
Over/Under: 45
It seems odd after their terrible start to the season, but the Vikings might still be in the hunt for the playoffs. They have looked dominant in their wins over the past two weeks and a win against the Bears would put them just one win behind their rivals having played one game fewer. Dalvin Cook is stating his case as the best back in football and it is hard to disagree with his numbers right now.
The Bears on the other hand are coming back down to earth after surprising everyone with their 5-1 start. They have now lost three on the bounce and it is clear that they are being held back by an offense incapable of moving the ball. They were shut out for the first three quarters against the Titans and this team has failed to hit 20 points in over 40 per cent of their games under Matt Nagy.
There is a gulf in defensive quality between these two teams but in a close matchup I will always take the team with the better offense. The Bears should make this tough on Minnesota, but I have faith that the Vikings can sneak the win.
Picks: Vikings -2.5, Over 43