If you are thinking of laying a bet on the upcoming weekend of NFL action, it is always smart to maximise value and target the spread early in the week. Here are three picks against the spread you should consider ahead of Week 10.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
There has been a lot of talk about the 49ers and their three straight losses, but I think it speaks to the quality of this team that they are still three point favourites in this one. After all, this is a team that ranks second in offensive success rate since Week 5, behind only the Cincinnati Bengals. Their defense has perhaps fallen short of expectation, but they have at least been solid.
The Jaguars are a good team in their own right, but their recent issues against the run do worry me a little. Since Week 5 they have rank 25th in EPA per rush. That’s bad news against a Kyle Shanahan offense. The 49ers are also expected to have Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back for this one. I think they’ve got too much for the Jaguars to contain.
Detroit Lions (-1.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Lions have been excellent this season. The defense has been a welcome surprise, having really turned the corner under Aaron Glenn. It is their offense that gives me real hope though. Detroit is ninth in both points per drive and drive success rate. They can win through the air, but they can also win on the ground, as we saw with their 222 rushing yards against the Raiders in Week 8.
That’s a worry for a Chargers team who still haven’t really figured anything out on defense. Run defense has always been an issue for this team under Brandon Staley, but their real problem this year has been stopping the pass. They are allowing a 49.8% dropback success rate, which is better than only Arizona and Denver. They also sit 29th in EPA per dropback. I think this disparity on defense separates what are two evenly matched offenses.
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs Cleveland Browns
The Ravens are coming off an electric Week 9 performance that saw them hold a good Seahawks team to just three points. This team really is firing on all cylinders, showing the ability to suffocate opposing offenses whilst also moving the ball at will on the ground or through the air. Entering Week 10 they sit 10th in dropback success rate and third in rushing success rate.
Whilst the Browns defense should give them problems, I just don’t see anything from Cleveland’s offense to suggest this will be remotely close. Deshaun Watson and co just posted a 31% success rate against the 1-8 Cardinals. For context, that would rank dead last across the entire NFL this season. Baltimore is a buzzsaw and Cleveland are going to get chewed up and spat out.