Football is finally back and as always with Week 1 there were plenty of shocks and surprises as we learn more about what each team will bring to the 2020 season. There are already some interesting narratives developing from the first slate of games and here are my top takeaways and talking points from Week 1.
Chiefs have success with new-look offense
Kansas City were deserving winners in the Thursday night opener against the Texans, securing a comfortable 34-20 victory. Yet they did so in a way that few had anticipated. The hallmark of this team has been their commitment to the passing game and Mahomes’ ability to air out the ball. Last year the Chiefs became the first team to win the Super Bowl after averaging under 25 carries per game.
Yet in the opening game, things looked a little more balanced and to an extent more pedestrian. Mahomes threw for 211 yards and three touchdowns, but looked more conservative than his usual gunslinging self. Of the 28 quarterbacks to feature so far in Week 1, he ranked 20th in CPOE, 26th in Aggressiveness, and 28th in Average Completed Air Yards, per Next Gen Stats. His average time-to-throw was way down at 2.3 seconds and this looked much more like a traditional West Coast offense passing performance.
Much of this came down to the Chiefs desire to run the ball more and in particular to feed carries to 2020 first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He had a good game, with 25 carries for 138 yards and seven forced missed tackles, but this approach slowed down this offense. Their average drive time was 28 per cent longer than in 2019 and Edwards-Helaire was given the ball in goal-to-go situations on six occasions and each time failed to find the end zone.
The Chiefs passed on just 49 per cent of their plays – in contrast, their average last season was way up at 61 per cent. This wasn’t just a case of killing the clock either – 27 of their 34 running plays came whilst the game was within 17 points and 16 of them came inside the first half. This may well have been Andy Reid’s plan to keep things simple in Week 1 and to avoid revealing too much of their offensive gameplan going forward, but it will be interesting to see if this marks a permanent shift to their offensive identity.
Washington dominate on defense
There were few teams being so roundly criticised this offseason as Washington. Aside from their off-field issues, the roster looked like one of the weakest in the NFL and it looked like they would have a tough start in Week 1 against an Eagles team that has reached the playoffs in each of the past three seasons.
They started the game poorly and found themselves trailing 17-0 during the second quarter, before mounting an incredible second half comeback to win 27-17. Their offense was predictably lacklustre and the credit for this comeback has to go to their defense. They limited the Eagles to just 265 yards of offense and got after Carson Wentz all game. In total they finished with eight sacks, 13 TFLs and two picks. This doesn’t even tell the full story as they had two more dropped interceptions and one called back on a penalty.
They certainly benefited from a depleted Eagles offensive line but they were still legitimately impressive. Washington’s offense remains a weakness and if they have any chance of succeeding this season it will be dependent on repeat performances from their defense. With a game against the Cardinals and their lacklustre offensive line on the horizon, they will be hoping that they can make it to 2-0 next week.
Aaron Rodgers silences his critics… for now
Much of the offseason narrative surrounding the Packers focused on their decision to draft Jordan Love in the first round and speculation over when Rodgers would be moved on. After a lacklustre 2019 season, many were left wondering if we would see the Aaron Rodgers of old ever again.
Whilst the game against the Vikings was not conclusive proof against this argument, it was definitely the best game we have seen from Rodgers and the Packers offense in some time. He finished the game with 364 yards and four touchdown passes and a CPOE of 14.2.
Two of the main criticisms of Rodgers have been his over-reliance on Davante Adams and taking too long to get the ball out. In this game he was willing to spread the ball around, with five players having at least four receptions. He also got the ball out much quicker, with an average time-to-throw of just 2.59 seconds, a substantial drop from last year’s figure.
It has to be said though that Rodgers performed in pretty favourable conditions. The Vikings cornerback unit is inexperienced and with no real offseason they looked particularly poor. With Danielle Hunter out the Vikings struggled to create pressure all game too. On 44 dropbacks they managed just seven pressures and the Packers never really looked hurried. Only time will tell if he can replicate this kind of performance in more challenging circumstances.
Seattle are finally willing to let Russ cook
Another quarterback who thrived in Week 1 was Russell Wilson and it looks like Pete Carroll may finally be listening to the calls to “let Russ cook“. In one of the most entertaining games of the weekend, Wilson finished 31 for 35, with 322 yards and four touchdowns as he led the Seahawks to a 38-25 victory over the Falcons.
This was a very different style of offense to what we saw from Seattle last year. This week they were the most pass-heavy team on first and second downs. They started the game aggressively too, with 12 dropbacks on their first 16 plays and finished with an EPA per pass play of 0.56. For context their number from last season was -0.11, ranked 29th in the NFL.
In total the Seahawks ran the ball just 20 times all game. This was just the fourth time Wilson’s 129 career games where they have run 20 or fewer times and he has passed for 35 or more. Chris Carson even had more yards and touchdowns as a receiver than he did as a runner this week. They will face a tough secondary next week in New England but Seahawks fans and neutrals alike can hope this is the beginning of a more exciting Seattle offense.
