It’s the Divisional Round, and that means we are well and truly at the business end of the season. The four games on our screens this week all project to be fascinating encounters.
Do the Jags stand a chance? Can Brock Purdy keep up his winning streak? And what are the best player matchups of the weekend? Our regular trio of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, and Jack Brentnall are joined by William Lane to answer all of this and more.
The Jaguars made an improbable comeback last week to set up a meeting with the Chiefs. Do you think they have a chance in this game? And if so, what do you think will be the key to victory?
Kev: There’s more “Hope” round the tip of South Africa! Let’s be honest there’s always the chance but a lot has to go perfect. The Jaguars have to get consistent pressure with four rushers. Those four must contain and it’s possible they may employ a QB spy occasionally (much in the same way the Bengals did last year). The linebackers and secondary players must take their chances if an opportunity presents itself – you cannot drop interception chances.
On offense Trevor Lawrence has to play better under pressure. Chris Jones has had a phenomenal season for Kansas City and will be relishing this opportunity to push the pocket. It’s going to be very difficult to keep up with the Chiefs and it’s going to be cold. Their offense was meant to regress this season but Mahomes has been phenomenal and continues to pull rabbits out of hats consistently in tricky situations.
Whatever happens and no matter how ugly it could get, the Jaguars should be really pleased with this season’s progress. The AFC South is there for the taking with a lot of change coming in that division.
Tayyib: I think they have a chance. The Jaguars are playing with house money; whatever happens on Saturday, it has been a brilliant season for the Jags. That makes them dangerous going into this game, and the livewire arm of Trevor Lawrence gives them a chance as well. Having played in big-time college atmospheres, Arrowhead Stadium should not faze Lawrence. Kansas City’s defense is susceptible, and Lawrence may experience an easier time than last week. Lawrence is a rare talent, and if this game gets played on his terms, he will cause plenty of panic for the Chiefs. If the Jags are going to do it, Lawrence will need to be at his Clemson Tiger best.
Jack: I’ve been in on the Jags since they hired Doug Pederson, but even I know how tough this game will be. The Chiefs are a juggernaut with the best quarterback in football under center. I don’t see the Jags being able to stop them, so the question is whether they can keep pace with Mahomes. If they are going to do that, one thing will be key – keep Trevor Lawrence clean.
Lawrence has been excellent this year, but there’s a clear difference in his production when clean vs under pressure. When clean he ranks ninth in the NFL in passer rating, throwing for 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions. His 1% turnover-worthy play rate is the second lowest in football.
Pressured dropbacks have been a different story. Only Mac Jones and Matt Ryan have more interceptions under pressure. Lawrence has the fifth highest turnover-worthy play rate and the ninth lowest passer rating. The Chiefs have the third highest adjusted sack rate in football this season, so the Jaguars will have their work cut out in trying to stop them.
William: I believe that the Jaguars have a chance. Any given Sunday as they say, but this will be yet another uphill battle for Trevor Lawrence and co. That’s nothing that they aren’t used to, as it was a loss to the Chiefs that sparked an immaculate turnaround to their season. But there will be absolutely zero wiggle room against the Chiefs – if you go down by 27 then your season is over.
Lawrence has been on an absolute tear to end the season, living up to the expectations placed upon him during the draft process. If the Jaguars are to beat the Chiefs this weekend then Trevor Lawrence will have to keep a level head. That’s not something easy for opposing quarterbacks in Arrowhead.
On the defensive side of things the Jaguars will have to keep Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket. That pass rush is going to have their work cut out for them against a Kansas City offensive line that ranks fourth according to PFF.
In the NFC we have a divisional matchup between the Eagles and the Giants. The two have played each other twice already this season, with the Eagles winning both. How do you see this one playing out?
Kev: It’s very difficult to beat a team three times in one season, especially a rival you know so well. If there’s any game that has the capability of providing an upset this one is mine. The issue is the level of talent on each roster – the Eagles are the superior team in all facets. As I said in the previous Jags-Chiefs matchup, a lot has to go right for the Giants to come away victorious. I do think they can frustrate the Eagles defensively.
It will be interesting to see if they continue with the heavy zone based defense they employed against the Vikings or whether they mix in some man and revert to some heavy blitzing. One thing for sure is Daniel Jones will not be given the freedom with arms or legs that he received last weekend. This will be a firmer test and he’ll likely see far more of his lineman pushed into his lap this week than last weeks in the Twin Cities.
I feel this will be a fourth quarter game and I’m a big fan of any NFC East matchup due to the hatred between fanbases. Could be the game of the week, this one.
Tayyib: I am intrigued by Jalen Hurts’ fitness and game sharpness. Is he still dealing with some niggles? If so, will the Eagles limit how often Hurts takes off with his running? Despite Hurts’ marked improvement from the pocket, he is a different proposition if he is immobile. Philly’s run-pass-option game is one of the best, but that may not matter if Hurts carries less. New York’s defense was monstrous against Minnesota, and Wink Martindale’s unit consistently generated pressure without blitzing. Last Sunday, the Giants blitzed at a season-low rate. I am convinced that will change in this game. Philadelphia’s offensive line is the best in the NFL, and New York’s blitz packages must be on point. Maintaining discipline in their rushes will be critical.
For the Giants, the big question surrounds their offense. Can they dominate Philly’s stout front seven and manoeuvre the point of attack in the ground game? If it becomes a dropback passing game in 2nd and long, or 3rd and long, it is difficult to envisage a win for Big Blue.
The Eagles are complete and multi-dimensional. They can win in a multitude of my ways. That gives them the decisive edge, and they will win.
Jack: I’ve been hugely impressed by what Brian Daboll has done with the Giants this year, but I think the Eagles make it three wins. That said, I think it will be a fairly close one. Don’t forget that Jalen Hurts has played just one game in the last five weeks. When we saw him last in Week 18 (which happened to be against the Giants) he looked really rusty. It is difficult to know which version of the Eagles quarterback we will be getting in this game.
New York’s defensive line has the talent to make life difficult for the Eagles and Wink Martindale is one of the few coordinators willing to send the dogs and blitz Hurts like crazy. In Week 18 he sent five or more rushers on 66% of Hurts’ dropbacks. This did just enough to limit the Eagles offense and saw them pull off a narrow 22-16 win. I can see a similar thing happening here.
William: Beating a team three times is never easy, but the Eagles are just the team with the ability to pull off that feat. We have seen what the Eagles can do with a healthy Jalen Hurts so I believe a lot of this falls on his play. No doubt that Brian Daboll will have his team ready on Saturday. But Daniel Jones will have to play his best football we have ever seen if they are to pull this off. And with the receivers around him I just do not think it is enough for the Giants to pull it off. The Eagles are just the more complete team from start to finish, whilst the Giants are dealing with a heap of injuries that have left them shorthanded at various positions all season. As entertaining as an upset would be, I just don’t see it happening.
It feels like Bills-Bengals is the game of the weekend. With that in mind, I’m interested as to which of the two quarterbacks you prefer – Josh Allen or Joe Burrow?
Kev: Two players at the peak of their powers and both very different. Burrow is the thinking man, the surgeon and the intelligence, the Tony Stark if you will. Allen is the all-action superhero, the physical specimen who can stop trains and leap buildings in single bound! I prefer watching Allen – there’s an element of John Elway about the way he plays. The Chiefs game last season was incredible. Time and time again he kept pulling them back only to be let down each time. Give me the superhero over the calculating nemesis type!
Tayyib: I listened to an interview with Hall of Famers Troy Aikman and Steve Young, and they emphasized the difference between a quarterback and a thrower. Burrow is a true quarterback; his pre-snap processing and accuracy belie his relative inexperience. Watching Burrow is a privilege. He plays the quarterback position in its truest form. Josh Allen is special, but I prefer watching Burrow. Burrow has all the mental traits and football IQ.
Jack: I think this a really interesting question that will no doubt see plenty of debate over the course of the offseason. It’s a close one to call but I would personally take Burrow. Allen’s highs certainly seem higher and he can make throws that very few others have ever been able to make. That said, he is also still prone to some mind-numbingly bad decision making and risk taking, as evidenced by his league-high 29 turnover-worthy plays.
Burrow on the other hand might not have the elite arm strength, but he is the perfect encapsulation of what it is to play the quarterback position. There might not be anyone who is better at quickly deciphering coverage and delivering perfect passes on time and with pinpoint accuracy. It’s probably just personal preference, but I think that is what makes a great quarterback.
William: The NFL is in phenomenal hands thanks to these two and plenty of other young quarterbacks. With that being said, give me Joe Burrow over Josh Allen. A lot of it comes down to accuracy. Josh Allen might have the bigger arm, but that trade off on deep throws has led to plenty of turnovers. Josh Allen leads the league in interceptions since 2020 with 38 of them. Burrow on the other hand is in a world of his own, completing 68.5% of his passes in his career. Burrow currently has the ninth-lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays at a rate of 2.1 percent. Josh Allen may be flashier but if you have got an eye for the mechanics then Joe Burrow is the clear cut better quarterback. Josh Allen has come a long way though and fans should be in for a treat on Sunday.
The 49ers continue to impress, notching their 11th straight win last weekend. The test is much tougher now as they prepare to face the Cowboys. Do you think Brock Purdy has what it takes to get the better of Dallas?
Kev: The 49ers have a great chance to win this. Purdy has played above expectation and nothing more can be asked of him with regard to his recent performances. I heard a stat from the previous game where only two of Purdy’s passes were into tight coverage. No matter the genius of Shanahan this can’t continue all the way to Super Bowl glory. At some point the former Iowa State man will have to lead his team to victory. The Cowboys defensive attack can be pretty formidable and this game is about the wizardry of the aforementioned Shanahan and the tactical acumen of Dan Quinn on the opposite side. I would imagine he will mix up some drop coverages and simulated pressures to keep Purdy guessing. The weaponry on offer with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey creating on their own will certainly help Purdy’s cause in this game.
As an old NFL fan this is a matchup of days gone by, two former goliaths of yesteryear! I’ll keep rolling with the 9ers on this one as I simply don’t rust the Cowboys!
Tayyib: Yes, I do think Brock Purdy has what it takes, purely because of the talent around him. Christian McCaffery, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel are perhaps the most talented group of skill players in the NFL. San Francisco possesses power, speed, talent, and aggression on offense. Purdy does not need to be the superstar; he needs to be a basketball point guard and get his playmakers in the correct positions. Purdy is capable of doing that. In this game, I expect the 49ers to use Dallas’ speed against them. Kyle Shanahan will throw misdirection pre-snap window dressing, counters, and funky alignments to drag Cowboy defenders into different areas of the field. If Purdy plays calmly, the 49ers should have enough.
Jack: This is a really tough one. I think the 49ers obviously have a very good chance to win. Whether or not that is because of their quarterback or in spite of him is another matter. Their win over the Seahawks in the Wild Card Round was a testament to Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling ability. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all averaged at least three yards of separation from their respective defenders in that game. The Seahawks’ pitiful pass rush also saw Purdy pressured on just 24.2% of his dropbacks.
This weekend’s clash against the Cowboys is an entirely different test. This is a team that ranks second in defensive DVOA, behind only the 49ers themselves. This will mark just the second time all year that Purdy has faced a defense that ranks top ten in DVOA. I feel like the wheels have to fall off the Purdy hype train at some point this postseason. This might just be when that happens.
William: Brock Purdy does not have what it takes to beat a team like the Dallas Cowboys. With that being said I have full confidence that Kyle Shanahan can figure out a way to beat Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys. The 49ers roster is a lot more complete than the Dallas roster as well, but I am not going to count out a Dallas team that can drop 40 any time they play. It really just depends on which Cowboys team we are going to get. There have been times throughout the season where they seemed like they had it all figured out to win it all. But we have seen a couple of weeks where the offense really struggled. If Dak Prescott is on top of his game on Sunday then I have complete confidence in the Cowboys pulling off the victory.
Are there any player matchups that you are particularly excited to watch this weekend?
Kev: I have one very simple thought in my head for this weekend, it is as follows: How does a very underwhelming cornerback unit for the Bengals keep Stefon Diggs quiet….. Where’s that curious emoji?
Tayyib: Nick Bosa vs. Jason Peters could be the individual matchup that tilts this game. Peters is a veteran lineman, and has played well at left tackle for the Cowboys this season. But Bosa is my Defensive Player of the Year, and he is the complete defensive end. The Cowboys need to protect Dak Prescott, and block for their screens and Tony Pollard-led stretch running game. Bosa is capable of wrecking those game plans. Really, I could have picked any of the trench matchups from this game. Nevertheless, Bosa is the NFL’s best defender. And watching his every snap feels like a big deal.
Jack: I don’t often pick a matchup in the trenches, but watching Dexter Lawrence face off against Jason Kelce in the Giants-Eagles game is must-watch TV. Both players have been outstanding all year and both made our 2022 All-Pro Team. Lawrence has an astonishing 70 pressures, the second most amongst interior linemen this season. This is despite playing as a nose tackle, a position where pass rush production is traditionally hard to come by.
On the other side you have Kelce. The 35-year old center might be in his 12th season, but he has shown no signs of slowing down. He has been a great run blocker this season, but his value in the passing game can’t be understated. Kelce is the only interior lineman in football to not allow a single sack or hit in pass protection this season. That is despite playing a whopping 653 pass blocking snaps.
William: Kayvon Thibodeaux versus Lane Johnson is a matchup that I am very excited for. The playoffs is the perfect opportunity for the Giants rookie to step up and play a key role in this game against the Eagles. While Dexter Lawrence is wreaking havoc on the interior, Thibodeaux will be screaming off the edge. Or at least he will be trying to. It won’t be easy against the 4x Pro Bowler Lane Johnson! The 32-year old veteran has once again had an elite season in the passing game, earning an 89.8 PFF pass blocking grade. The Giants have been extremely blitz heavy throughout the season so keep an eye on these two in particular.