We have a great slate of games to look forward to this weekend. Each of them offers certain matchups that will have a big impact on the eventual result. The battle between Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsay is probably the most interesting and is sure to get the weekend off to a good start. Here are my five matchups to watch this weekend.
Davante Adams vs. Jalen Ramsay
This is easily the best 1-on-1 matchup in the Divisional Round. The unstoppable force of Davante Adams meets the immovable object of Jalen Ramsay. Adams is coming off a career year, with 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. He averaged almost 100 yards per game and led the league in yards per route run at 2.96. He also proved to be the best receiver in the NFL against single coverage, with his 96.4 PFF grade leading the nation.
Adams will face his biggest challenge of the season against Ramsay, who allowed just one 25+ yard completion all season. Ramsay allowed a completion on just 50 per cent of his targets and gave up just 20.6 yards per game in the regular season. His 0.53 yards per coverage snap is the best of any corner with at least 30 targets.
One thing that Ramsay has struggled with at times this season are quick-breaking routes. He doesn’t get beaten deep, but receivers have been able to win with digs, curls, and out routes. This is something that Adams excels in and could be an area the Packers look to target.
Aaron Donald vs. the Packers’ offensive line
This isn’t far behind the Adams-Ramsay contest for excitement potential. Donald will play against the Packers, despite tearing his rib cartilage against the Seahawks last weekend. It will be interesting to see how this affects his performance, but by the sound of things he is feeling good and ready to play. He was predictably impressive this season. His 98 pressures led the NFL and were 21 more than the next best player. This is despite Donald receiving more double teams than any other player in the league.
If any team are built to combat the effectiveness of Donald, it is the Packers. Matt LaFleur’s offense is excellent at getting the ball out quickly, something they will need to do to keep Aaron Rodgers upright. They also own one of the best offensive lines in football. The Packers lead the NFL in pass block win rate per ESPN and have the second best pass protecting offensive line per PFF.
Donald will have a tough time against Corey Linsley, who was the best center in the NFL this season. Linsley allowed just four pressures all season and was a key reason for Aaron Rodgers being sacked a career-low 20 times. If there is a weak link in the Packers line it is Lucas Patrick, who has allowed 16 pressures this season. The loss of David Bakhtiari will also have a knock-on impact. Whoever wins this battle of the trenches stands a very good chance of winning the game.
Buffalo’s linebackers vs. Baltimore’s running game
This game revolves around whether or not the Bills can limit the Ravens’ running game. Baltimore have been averaging 262 rushing yards per game since Lamar Jackson’s return. They’ve averaged 0.243 EPA per run in that period, by far the best total in the NFL. Buffalo have been one of the league’s worst run defenses, ranking 30th in PFF run defense grade, ahead of only the Lions and Texans.
Their entire defense needs to step up, but the position to watch will be their linebackers. Their highest graded run defending linebacker per PFF is Tremaine Edmunds, who ranks 38th across the NFL. They will be vital to limiting Baltimore, who love to stretch the field horizontally with their ground game. The Ravens are also heavily reliant on yards after contact and the Bills linebackers can’t let this happen.
Jackson, Dobbins, and Edwards have combined for 83 forced missed tackles this season. Dobbins and Edwards rank 8th and 10th in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt. If Buffalo don’t limit the ground game, Baltimore can grind the clock and keep Josh Allen off the field. The Bills need their linebackers to step up in this one.
Myles Garrett vs. Eric Fisher
The Browns are going to have their work cut out against the Chiefs this weekend. The obvious concern is their coverage unit and the team ranks 25th in passing DVOA. It won’t be able to hold up forever against the Chiefs and so they will need to generate pressure up front, making Mahomes get rid of the ball sooner. If they can limit the strain on the secondary, they have a chance.
The matchup to watch in the trenches will of course be Myles Garrett facing off against Eric Fisher. Garrett finished the season as PFF’s fourth highest graded edge rusher. He accounted for 56 total pressures, including 13 sacks, ranked third in the NFL. He enters this game after limited practice due to a shoulder injury, but the Browns will need him to be at his best to get a result.
Fisher is certainly beatable and despite making the Pro Bowl, has given up plenty of pressure this season. His 34 pressures allowed is the eighth most amongst left tackles in the NFL this season. Garrett has game-wrecking potential and will be the biggest weapon the Browns have on defense this weekend. There is no guarantee that pressuring Mahomes will make the difference, but if they are to win it will be a necessity.
Tom Brady vs. the Saints’ secondary
This will be the third time these two have faced off this season and it is fair to say Brady struggled in both games. In his 14 games against other opponents, Brady averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 108.2. Against the Saints this fell to 6.1 and 58.8. He threw just two touchdowns and five picks across the two games.
The big question here is whether or not he can step up against the Saints defense. The Brady-Arians connection seems to have improved recently and he has looked great at getting the ball downfield. Since Week 10 he leads the NFL in deep passing yards and deep touchdown passes. The quality is clearly there on this Bucs offense, it is just whether or not they can put things together.
New Orleans have been good at limiting the deep ball in recent weeks. They have allowed just four passes of 20+ yards since Week 14, including three games without one. They notably limited Mahomes to no deep completions and just 5.4 yards per attempt. If they can do the same to Brady they should win this one. Whatever happens, it will certainly be a battle worth watching.