Conference championship weekend is always great entertainment. This year projects to be no different. The four remaining teams all make for excellent viewing and should give us two great games this weekend.
Which teams will win the trench battle? What are the most exciting player matchups? And what does the final four say about the future of teambuilding in the NFL? Tayyib Abu, Jack Brentnall, and William Lane answer all of this and more.
It’s notable that all four teams left in the postseason have surrounded their quarterbacks with offensive talent. Do you think the days of winning with a good defense are over?
Tayyib: Not necessarily! I think the days of a defense-dominated team, such as the 2015-16 Denver Broncos winning a Super Bowl, are gone. However, the final four teams left in the playoffs are much more multidimensional than previous teams. All four are explosive in the passing game, can run the ball, and get stops on defense. San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia were all in the top ten in scoring defense. For as much as people may say that offense is king, three of the four teams left have outstanding defenses. Even Kansas City’s tigerish defense can get stops when required. However, All four teams are top ten in scoring offense, and three of the remaining quarterbacks are MVP contenders. Complete teams win championships, and these are four outstanding teams on both sides of the ball.
Jack: I think so, and I think they have been for a while now. I’m comfortable saying that “defense wins games, but offense wins championships”. Even some recent examples of strong defenses winning it all aren’t what they appear. The Patriots held the Rams to just three points in Super Bowl LIII, but they ranked 19th in defensive DVOA that season. By contrast they were fifth on offense.
All four of the teams left ranked inside the top six in DVOA. They also all rank in the top six for drive success rate and inside the top seven in yards per drive and points per drive. That said, I don’t think defense is entirely unimportant – whilst the remaining defenses differ in talent level, it’s fair to say that none of them are a real liability. The Chiefs are the only one to rank outside the top ten in DVOA, and they sit a solid 17th. In short, a great defense won’t win you championships anymore, but an awful one will certainly lose you one.
William: I wouldn’t say that this narrative is entirely over. This season, our sample size is just four well-rounded teams. From top to bottom these rosters are loaded with talent showing barely any flaws. The 49ers rank first in DVOA, so only time will tell if this narrative is here to stay. If any team could find a way to slow down the high flying Eagles offense, it would be San Francisco. At the end of the day it is up to these defenses to slow down these elite offense as all four of them rank within the top 10 in offensive DVOA. An elite defense may not win you the Lombardi, but a bad defense won’t even get you there today.
An unstoppable force meets an immovable object as the 49ers’ defensive line will face off against the Eagles’ offensive line. How do you see things playing out?
Tayyib: The Eagles’ offensive line was the powerhouse that drove them to a Super Bowl win five years ago. Veterans Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson are playing better this season than they did in 2017-18. They lead this monstrous group with power, ferocity, and experience. ESPN ranked Johnson first overall in pass-block win rate, while Alabama animal Landon Dickerson was second amongst guards. Across the board, Philly’s offensive line can do it all; they protect with agility, and they are nasty in the run. Whether they pin and pull, kick out for the screen game, or climb upfield on trap and inside zone runs, they are outstanding.
But San Francisco’s defensive line is ferocious. Led by DPOY candidate Nick Bosa, they are relentless. Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is excellent at confusing protection schemes and creating a mismatch. This battle will decide this game, but I think Philadelphia’s veteran nous gives them the edge. Kelce is arguably the best center in the NFC, and he is brilliant at identifying and calling protections.
Jack: I can’t wait for this matchup. The Eagles’ offensive line has been the engine room of their offense and the foundation of their success. Whether it is their ability to consistently create wide open lanes in the running game or to keep Jalen Hurts clean as a passer, that is how they have thrived. Few teams have given them any real trouble, but if there is one defense that could it is the 49ers.
DeMeco Ryans has been a wizard at defensive coordinator. Nick Bosa has been outstanding too. The frontrunner for DPOY has been almost unblockable all year and I fully expect the Eagles to give him extra attention. That’s where the blitzes have to come in. The teams that have been able to generate pressure on Jalen Hurts this season have been even front defenses who weren’t afraid to send the blitz. I think if the 49ers are willing to take that approach they could cause some real trouble.
William: What is there not to love about this Eagles offensive line which has been the driving force for this offenses success? They have kept Jalen Hurts clean and allowed him the time to really watch the play develop in front of him. All of this has been instrumental to his success. Not only has their pass blocking just been great, but the ability to create holes for the run game. Whether it is Miles Sanders or Kenneth Gainwell, it does not matter. Both running backs have been extremely efficient thanks to this offensive line.
Looking to the other side of this matchup we have the San Francisco 49ers defense that has just been stellar top to bottom. The one thing that really stands out is this elite pass rush that is led by Nick Bosa. The edge rusher out of Ohio State is currently leading the race for DPOY and understandably so. The 49ers’ success will be dependent on whether they can make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable. Wrap him up behind the line of scrimmage and then you just might see yourself playing on Super Bowl Sunday.
Let’s stick with the trenches. Joe Burrow overcame his offensive line against the Bills last week. Do you think he can do it again against a much more potent Chiefs pass rush?
Tayyib: He did it last year! And while Kansas City’s pass rush is better than Buffalo’s, Burrow’s freakish pocket presence can negate the Chiefs’ pressure. Moreover, if Burrow continues to fire the ball quickly and accurately, it may not matter. Only Tom Brady released the ball quicker than Burrow this season, and the Bengals have athletes like Joe Mixon, Samajae Perine, and Tyler Boyd that can wreak havoc after the catch. In last year’s game, the Bengals did not hit many explosive pass plays in terms of air yards, but they beat the Chiefs with plenty of yards after the catch. Burrow and the Bengals must avoid third and long situations. Last year, Burrow scrambled a lot on big downs, which may not be repeatable. That is where the game may be won or lost.
Jack: I was really impressed with how well the Bengals mitigated their threadbare offensive line last week. Burrow was able to thrive as a passer, but they also managed to dominate the Bills on the ground. I think it could come unstuck here though. The Chiefs’ pass rush is far superior to the Bills. They rank third in adjusted sack rate, compared to Buffalo who rank 21st. They are also much better at containing the run than the Bills, allowing almost half as many open field yards.
I’ve also a little worried about the sustainability of the Bengals’ approach to the situation. If you watch last week’s game back, you will notice two things. Firstly, Burrow was getting the ball out incredibly fast. His 2.46 second time-to-throw against the Bills would have ranked second across the course of the NFL season. He was also peppering the underneath areas, with no real time to take deep shots. That’s not a sustainable way to win in the long run and it could cost them if they try it again here.
William: The Bengals were able to get it done down in the trenches last weekend, but this weekend’s challenge will be much more difficult. This Chiefs pass rush is not talked about enough. Chris Jones finished the season with 15.5 sacks and has been terrorizing offense all year. The Bengals have done a great job of mitigating their weakness. As Jack mentioned, last weekend Joe Burrow got the ball out incredibly fast. He was reliant on little dink and dunk passes left and right and defenses will also have to keep an eye out on Joe Mixon rolling in that backfield. If the Chiefs are to win this game they will have to get to Burrow early and often.
Are there any player matchups that you are particularly excited to watch?
Tayyib: Landon Dickerson vs. Arik Armstead is going to be a game-long collision. Dickerson is from the Crimson Tide school of anger and power. Armstead is one of the best run-stuffing tackles in the league. In a game where running the ball will be critical, this matchup is the living embodiment of trench warfare.
Jack: I can’t wait to see Brandon Aiyuk go up against Darius Slay. Aiyuk is a criminally underrated receiver who would be a bona fide franchise star if he wasn’t surrounded by an abundance of other offensive riches on that 49ers offense. He is a great athlete who runs good routes, has good hands, and isn’t afraid to get involved in the dirty work of run blocking – what’s not to like! Darius Slay will be a tough test though. The Eagles star has allowed just two completions of 20+ yards since Week 11 and can lock down the very best on his day. Get the popcorn out – this will be a truly great battle.
William: Dallas Goedert versus the 49ers linebackers is going to be something I pay close attention to. When dealing with a tight end like Goedert, many teams will not find success having a pure linebacker try and cover him. But the 49ers linebackers are able to play fast, which helps that entire defense to play fast. Hurts will have to keep an eye out for Fred Warner lurking all game as he is sneaky fast. This could cause problems as I think a lot of this offense’s success comes from Goedert.
If you could pick your perfect Super Bowl matchup, what would it be and why?
Tayyib: I want the Eagles and Bengals in the Super Bowl. Top to bottom, they are the most complete teams left in the tournament. San Francisco and Kansas City are great teams, but Philly and Cincy are better.
Jack: This is an easy one for me – I want Chiefs-Eagles. The 49ers defense is great, but the offense isn’t exactly must-watch TV with Brock Purdy under center. As for the Bengals, I fear their offensive line would once again be slaughtered if they made it to the big game against either Philly or San Francisco. The Chiefs and Eagles have been the best two teams in the NFL this year, so having the chance to see them square off in Arizona sounds like a no-brainer to me.
William: Bengals and Eagles was what I wanted going into the playoffs and it is what I want now. That Joe Burrow-led Bengals team is hard not to love, minus Eli Apple. Speaking of Apple, he would no doubt bring plenty of entertainment before the Super Bowl as both he and AJ Brown love hashing it out on Twitter. This matchup would bring us two of the best offenses in the league, one of the best rushing attacks versus one of the best passing attacks. It may not be the most entertaining defensively, but man it would be a fun one.