The 2021 Draft is fast approaching and there is a tonne of speculation about what each team will do. Earlier this week the Jets announced they were trading Sam Darnold, pretty much guaranteeing they take a quarterback at No. 2 overall. They need much more than a quarterback though and this was a team that went 2-14 in the 2020 season. With two first round picks and three on day two, the Jets have plenty of draft capital to begin their rebuild. This mock draft was done using PFN’s Mock Draft Simulator.
Round 1, Pick 2 – Zach Wilson | QB, BYU
This is as close to a foregone conclusion as you’ll see. Wilson came out of nowhere to establish himself as the clear QB2 behind Trevor Lawrence this season. He offers elite accuracy from the pocket and is deadly playing outside of structure too. He takes great care of the football and had just four turnover-worthy plays in 2020, by far the lowest number amongst draft-eligible prospects. The Jets’ new offensive coordinator is Mike LaFleur, who will be running a wide zone-heavy offense with plenty of play action passes. Wilson ran a similar scheme at BYU and was the highest graded play action passer in college football per PFF.
Round 1, Pick 23 – Caleb Farley | CB, Virginia Tech
Farley had been my CB1 since the summer, but the recent news of his back surgery could see him fall to the late first round. It makes perfect sense for the Jets to pull the trigger here and address their other major weak spot on their roster. Whilst Farley is certainly a risky pick, there is no questioning his on-field talent. In 2019 he allowed just a 36 per cent completion rate and gave up just 257 yards on his 50 targets. He’s excellent at the catch point, and had 26 per cent forced incompletion rate. His passer rating when targeted of 26.8 was the best of any Power Five cornerback in 2019.
Round 2, Pick 34 – Jaelan Phillips | EDGE, Miami
I would be amazed if Phillips falls out of the first round on draft night, but it is to the Jets’ benefit on this occasion. Phillips was the top recruit in the 2017 class, ahead of players like Chase Young and Tua Tagovailoa. He battled injuries and concussions at UCLA, before transferring to Miami for the 2020 season. There he established himself as one of the best edge rushers in college football. Phillips is the most polished pass rusher in the class and also excels against the run. This is exactly what Robert Salah’s defense needs. His four man front relies on a “LEO” speed rusher (Carl Lawson) on the weak-side and a bigger bodied 6-tech on the strong-side who is stout against the run. A player like Phillips would give the Jets one of the best pass rushing duos in the NFL.
Round 3, Pick 66 – Kendrick Green | IOL, Illinois
Green has been one of the big risers during the pre-draft process and he enjoyed a really impressive pro day. He tested in the 95th percentile or above in the 40-yard dash, 10-yard split, vertical jump, and broad jump. He split his time at Illinois between guard and center and could play either spot in the NFL. Green is another player who would be an excellent fit in the Jets’ new offense. His biggest strength is his run blocking and he is particularly effective on wide zone runs that allow him to work in space. He has room to develop his pass blocking technique, but he projects as a day one starter in New York.
Round 3, Pick 86 – Benjamin St-Juste | CB, Minnesota
The Jets’ problems at cornerback won’t be fixed with one move and doubling up on the Caleb Farley pick makes a lot of sense. Robert Salah’s comes from the Seattle coaching tree and was with the Seahawks during the Legion of Boom era. Like Seattle, he runs a Cover 3-heavy scheme that relies on tall and physical corners who are able to play press coverage and deal with vertical routes. St-Juste is the prototypical corner for this kind of defense, standing at 6’3″ and 205 lbs with an 80+ inch wingspan. He didn’t play a tonne at Minnesota, but impressed in limited exposure, with a 17.7 per cent forced incompletion rate. He is also an elite tackler, with just two misses on 58 career attempts.
Round 4, Pick 107 – Khalil Herbert | RB, Virginia Tech
The Jets struggled at running back last season and ranked 29th in rushing EPA per play. As things stand, Tevin Coleman is their RB1 for the 2021 season, with La’Mical Perine as his backup. Herbert would be a good name to add to the stable and is coming off an excellent year with the Hokies. He is a patient runner, with excellent contact balance and tackle breaking ability. His average of 4.74 yards after contact was the most in college football last season. 22 per cent of his carries went for 10+ yards, the fourth highest rate in the nation. His lateral agility and proficiency on outside zone plays make him an excellent fit in New York.
Round 5, Pick 146 – Anthony Schwartz | WR, Auburn
The Jets added Corey Davis in free agency and will be expecting Denzel Mims to step up in his second year. That said, you can never have too many weapons on offense, and Joe Douglas will be keen to surround his new quarterback with talent. Schwartz isn’t the most polished receiver in the class, but he would give the Jets elite speed. Schwartz has a background as a track athlete, winning a silver medal in the 100 metres at the U20 World Championships in 2018. He also ran a 4.26 40 at his pro day. Auburn often used him on sweeps and screens and he was excellent after the catch. He would give the Jets an added dimension to their offense.
Round 5, Pick 154 – Tommy Doyle | OT, Miami (OH)
The Jets are sorted at left tackle with Mekhi Becton, but it is worth considering a developmental option to learn behind George Fant on the right side. Fant struggled at times in 2020, allowing 33 pressures across his 14 games. Doyle is a high upside prospect who offers intriguing athletic traits. He had an excellent pro day and posted a Relative Athletic Score of 9.9, the third highest amongst offensive tackles. He combines this with imposing size and stands at 6’8″ and 320 lbs. Doyle was a consistently polished pass protector in college, allowing just 17 pressures on 745 pass blocking snaps since 2018.
Round 6, Pick 186 – Milton Williams | IDL, LA Tech
The Jets don’t really need to invest in their interior offensive line. They have Quinnen Williams and Florunso Fatukasi, both of whom impressed in 2020. That said, Fatukasi is a free agent next summer and Milton Williams is arguably a top 75 quality player in this year’s draft. I would be amazed if he fell this far, and recent reports suggest he is likely to go some time on day two. He would be an excellent successor to Fatukasi and give the Jets yet more defensive line talent. Salah’s scheme relies on the front four being able to generate pressure and Williams was one of the best at that in college football. He finished the season with 30 pressures on 248 pass rushing snaps. His 20.9 per cent pass rush win rate ranks first amongst all interior linemen.
Round 7, Pick 226 – Nick Niemann | LB, Iowa
The later rounds are all about adding depth and developmental options, and the Jets get that with Nick Niemann. The brother of Kansas City’s Ben Niemann, he was a three-year starter for the Hawkeyes. He seems to be going under the radar in this year’s class and would be excellent value at this spot. Niemann is one of the surest tacklers in the draft, missing just three tackles on 77 attempts in 2020. He is a solid run defender with the athletic ability to develop into a good coverage linebacker. Niemann ran a 4.51 40 and had a 6.67 three-cone at Iowa’s pro day. Those numbers rank in the 97th and 99th percentile respectively.
