2022 marked the first season of the Kevin O’Connell era in Minnesota and it was a real success. The team finished 13-4, which tied for their most wins in a single season since the millennium. They won the NFC North in the process, their first time doing so since 2017. It will be interesting to see how things play out in 2023, not least because this was a team that set an NFL record by going 11-0 in one-score games last season.
Roster changes
Few teams lost as many starters as the Vikings did this offseason. Long-time running back Dalvin Cook was cut in a cap-saving move. They also moved on from a handful of veterans, including wide receiver Adam Thielen, linebacker Eric Kendricks, defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, and cornerback Patrick Peterson. Edge rusher Za’Darius Smith was also traded after just one season in Minnesota.
It is fair to say that the front office didn’t invest big sums of money in finding their replacements. Their two most notable acquisitions were both one-year prove-it deals, with edge rusher Marcus Davenport joining from the Saints and cornerback Byron Murphy joining from the Cardinals. Their only other moves of note were signing tight end Josh Oliver to a three-year $21 million deal and bringing in defensive tackle Dean Lowry on a two-year $8.5 million deal.
Coaching situation
2023 will mark Kevin O’Connell’s second season as Minnesota’s head coach. In terms of the rest of the coaching staff, it is a tale of two halves. On offense things remain much the same, with Wes Phillips returning for a second season as offensive coordinator. Plenty of his assistants and position coaches have also returned for 2023.
It is another story on defense, following the firing of Ed Donatell after one very underwhelming season as defensive coordinator. O’Connell has replaced him with former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who will bring a major shift in defensive identity. Flores has kept most of the previous regime’s staff, though he has been joined by defensive quality control assistant, Lance Bennett, who worked with him in Miami.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.23 | Jordan Addison – WR, USC |
| 3.102 | Mekhi Blackmon – CB, USC |
| 4.134 | Jay Ward – CB, LSU |
| 5.141 | Jaquelin Roy – IDL, LSU |
| 5.164 | Jaren Hall – QB, BYU |
| 7.222 | DeWayne McBride – RB, UAB |
The Vikings addressed their need at wide receiver with the selection of Jordan Addison. There are legitimate concerns about his frame, but there is no doubting his technical refinement. He was their only pick in the top 100, so it isn’t a surprise that they didn’t come away with any other stars. Watch out for Mekhi Blackmon though. He’s an undersized but feisty corner ideally suited to Brian Flores’ new scheme.
Offense
You can’t talk about this offense without first mentioning Justin Jefferson. He has posted 2.5+ yards per route run in each of his three seasons in the NFL and he led the league in both receptions and yards in 2022. According to Sports Info Solutions he led all receivers in Wins Above Replacement too. Reception Perception also charted him with an NFL-best 84% win rate against press coverage.
What is important looking ahead to 2023 is that there is now more surrounding talent than ever before. The acquisition of TJ Hockenson was huge for this offense and his 519 yards since arriving in Week 9 was second amongst tight ends behind Travis Kelce. They also drafted Jordan Addison in the first round, whose route running savvy gives them another player who is capable of beating man coverage consistently. This puts defenses in a bind, as they will no longer be able to allocate all of their resources to stopping Jefferson.
The question for this offense, as ever, will be whether Kirk Cousins has enough to hang with the NFL’s best defenses. He gets plenty of undeserved flak, but his issues against top competition are undeniable. He finished with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions in games against top ten defenses in 2022, logging a worrying 16 turnover-worthy plays in those seven games. If he looks like that again in 2023, that could really cap this offense’s ceiling.
Defense
Get ready for a complete shift in the Vikings’ defensive identity. Gone is Ed Donatell’s very passive zone-heavy scheme, and in comes Brian Flores’ famously aggressive style of defense. The Vikings led the NFL in Cover 6 in 2022 and were 12th in Cover 4. When Flores last called a defense in Miami they ranked 32nd and 25th respectively. The Vikings had an 18.9% blitz rate in 2022, whereas the Flores-led Dolphins were at 39.6% in 2021.
The shift to a more man-heavy scheme should help a young and promising secondary. The Vikings added Mekhi Blackmon in the draft, who is a perfect fit in Flores’ scheme. He may be undersized but he is incredibly feisty and allowed a passer rating of 0.0 on 18 man targets at USC in 2022, with six forced incompletions. Second-year safety Lewis Cine also feels like a player primed for a big year, with the versatility he offers fitting perfectly with what Flores wants to do in the secondary.
The worry is going to be whether they have enough to generate pressure up front. With Za’Darius Smith gone, they really only have Danielle Hunter left when it comes to proven pass rushers. Marcus Davenport was always solid for the Saints, but has never been more than a rotational piece. Flores’ scheme should help to mitigate the talent disadvantage through blitzing, but that puts more pressure on a young secondary.
Prediction
The Vikings are a difficult team to figure out, not helped by the fact that their win total last season was massively inflated by going 11-0 in one-score games. A degree of regression in their number of wins feels inevitable, but in a weak NFC North they should still be competing for a divisional title.
