There was a sense of déjà vu for the Chargers in 2022. With high hopes and championship aspirations, they quickly faced setbacks as injuries plagued their roster on both offense and defense. Whilst the team did manage to rally and finish 10-7 with a playoff berth, they surrendered a 27 point lead to the Jaguars in a wild card round loss.
Roster changes
With a hefty Justin Herbert extension to get over the line, the Chargers had one of the quietest free agencies of the offseason. They only signed two outside free agents, former Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks, who joined on a two-year $13.25 million deal, and Giants defensive lineman Nicholas Williams on a one-year $1.23 million deal. Their only other moves involved re-signing some current players, including Trey Pipkins and Morgan Fox.
Whilst there wasn’t much happening in terms of arrivals, the same can’t be said for departures. The Chargers lost left guard Matt Feiler, linebacker Drue Tranquill, safety Nasir Adderley, and edge rusher Kyle Van Noy. Whilst none of these are stars at their positions, they were active contributors in 2022 and all played at least 70% of snaps.
Coaching situation
Brandon Staley is entering his third season as the Chargers’ head coach and it will be a crucial one. This urgency was exemplified by the changes at both offensive and defensive coordinator. Joe Lombardi has been replaced by former Cowboys playcaller Kellen Moore after a very disappointing 2022 season that saw the team rank 19th in DVOA.
On the defensive side of the ball, former defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill left to join the Dolphins. He has been replaced by Derrick Ansley, who spent the last two seasons as the Chargers’ defensive backs coach. Prior to that, he had worked as defensive coordinator for the Tennessee Volunteers.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.21 | Quentin Johnston – WR, TCU |
| 2.54 | Tuli Tuipulotu – EDGE, USC |
| 3.85 | Daiyan Henley – LB, Washington State |
| 4.125 | Derius Davis – WR, TCU |
| 5.156 | Jordan McFadden – OT, Clemson |
| 6.200 | Scott Matlock – IDL, Boise State |
| 7.239 | Max Duggan – QB, TCU |
The Chargers added yet more weaponry for Justin Herbert with TCU’s Quentin Johnston. Many overanalysed him, but this is a player with NFL-ready size and athleticism and perhaps the best YAC ability in the class. Adding depth at edge rusher with their next pick was smart, though it may have been a little early for Tuipulotu. They had some other nice picks too, with a potential starter in Daiyan Henley and a dynamic returner in Davis.
Offense
Despite a raft of injuries and questionable play calling that saw Joe Lombardi fired, Justin Herbert still managed to carry the Chargers to a fourth-placed finish in offensive DVOA in 2022. With Kellen Moore in as the new offensive coordinator things are promising. In the two seasons he had a fully healthy Dak Prescott in Dallas, he led the Cowboys offense to second and sixth placed finishes in DVOA.
Herbert gets more talent to work with on the field too. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are a potent one-two duo, and rookie Quentin Johnston gives them a legitimate YAC threat, having forced 19 missed tackles on his 60 receptions in 2022. They also added some much-needed juice in Derius Davis, a 4.36 runner who is also a good returner.
If there is something that could derail the Chargers’ offense it is, perhaps not unsurprisingly, their offensive line. A healthy Rashawn Slater and veteran Corey Linsley will be hugely valuable, but their other young starters all have big question marks. Can Zion Johnson take a big jump in his second season? Can Jamaree Salyer handle the full-time switch to guard? And can Trey Pipkins take a jump after 29 blown blocks in his 14 games last season? If the answer to a couple of those questions is no, they could be in trouble.
Defense
Unsurprisingly for a Brandon Staley coached defense there is a lot to like about this secondary. Derwin James is coming off another excellent season that saw him earn the second All-Pro nod of his career. He is the skeleton key that unlocks Staley’s diverse array of coverages, but he’s not the only talent. Asante Samuel has been a very reliable corner since he was drafted in 2021. Michael Davis and Bryce Callahan were solid in 2022 and there will be hope that JC Jackson can rediscover his form after an injury-ravaged debut season with the team.
They also obviously possess a very talented pair of edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Health is a concern with both players, but when they are on the field they have been consistently impactful against the run and the pass. The lack of depth at this spot is a worry, though the selection of Tuli Tuipulotu in the draft will hopefully go some way to addressing that.
There are still some very real concerns with this unit though. The most notable is their major Achilles heel in the form of their inability to stop the run. This has plagued both of Staley’s seasons with the team, with the defense finishing 30th and 29th in rush DVOA in 2021 and 2022 respectively. What’s most concerning is that they are due to head into 2022 with basically the same interior line that were hugely underwhelming last time out.
Prediction
With Joe Lombardi gone, the Chargers offense should see a noticeable uptick in 2023. Concerns remain around the defense, namely the depth at edge rusher and their ability to stop the run, but if Herbert and the offense reach their potential this is a contending team regardless.
