Any optimism that surrounded the Colts last offseason quickly disappeared as the season went on. The team never seemed to click, particularly on offense where they averaged just 17 points per game. Frank Reich was fired midseason and things got even worse from there, with the team winning just one of their last seven games. They finished 4-12-1, their second worst record since the turn of the millennium.
Roster changes
The Colts kept things fairly quiet in terms of free agent acquisitions. Their biggest move was for 49ers edge rusher Samson Ebukam, who earned a three-year $24 million deal. The rest of their moves were all pretty low-key, including a deal for former Rams kicker Matt Gay, Browns defensive tackle Taven Bryan, and Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew.
The departures were certainly more notable. The team cut Matt Ryan, who will carry an $18 million dead cap hit for 2023. They lost a pair of starters to the Giants, with linebacker Bobby Okereke and wide receiver Parris Campbell hitting free agency. They also traded Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys in exchange for a fifth round pick.
Coaching situation
With Frank Reich fired midseason, the Colts’ search for a new head coach was always going to be one of the biggest tasks of the offseason. They settled on former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance. Steichen has hired Jim Bob Cooter as the team’s new offensive coordinator. Cooter spent last year as the Jaguars’ passing game coordinator and worked with Steichen in Philadelphia in 2021. In total, just two offensive coaches remain on the Colts’ staff from last season.
In contrast, little has changed on the defensive side of the ball, with Gus Bradley entering his second season with the Colts. He has a history of working with Steichen, with the two spending four years together during their time with the Chargers.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.4 | Anthony Richardson – QB, Florida |
| 2.44 | Julius Brents – CB, Kansas State |
| 3.79 | Josh Downs – WR, North Carolina |
| 4.106 | Blake Freeland – OT, BYU |
| 4.110 | Adetomiwa Adebawore – IDL, Northwestern |
| 5.138 | Darius Rush – CB, South Carolina |
| 5.158 | Daniel Scott – S, California |
| 5.162 | Will Mallory – TE, Miami |
| 5.176 | Evan Hull – RB, Northwestern |
| 6.211 | Titus Leo – EDGE, Wagner |
| 6.221 | Jaylon Jones – CB, Texas A&M |
| 7.236 | Jake Witt – OT, Northern Michigan |
My word, this looks like an impressive draft class. In Anthony Richardson the Colts get their quarterback of the future and a player with a sky high ceiling. Their two selections on day two were equally inspired, with Chris Ballard’s focus on freaky athletes continuing. The uber athletes didn’t stop there, with Blake Freeland and Adetomiwa Adebawore on day three. And don’t forget Darius Rush either. He could be a real impact player in a young secondary.
Offense
The Colts will be hoping that Shane Steichen can turn this offense around after a near-total collapse in 2022. There is certainly a reason for optimism. Success has followed Steichen wherever he has been. He played a key role in the development of Justin Herbert in his rookie season. He also helped to transform Jalen Hurts into one of the game’s best young passers. In his three seasons as a play caller his offenses have not ranked lower than 15th in DVOA.
They will also have high hopes for their new quarterback Anthony Richardson. The No. 4 overall pick looks like he was built in a lab, possessing the dream blend of size, speed, and arm talent. He is also much further along in his development than many gave him credit for, with exceptional pocket presence and underrated processing ability as a passer. Pairing him with Steichen, who has shown the ability to successfully adapt his offense to a range of quarterback archetypes is certainly encouraging.
There are legitimate worries though. Once again, there will be questions about whether the Colts have sufficient pass catching talent to really compete in the AFC. Their receiving corps is young and full of promise, but it feels like they are lacking a true alpha threat capable of consistently challenging defenses. They also have a giant question mark at left tackle, and that is before even mentioning the situation surrounding Jonathan Taylor. It could get tough for them in 2023.
Defense
The Colts defense was solid in 2022, in large part because of their talented interior duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. These two allowed defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to play with lighter boxes and this brought a newfound diversity to his coverages. He played his patented Cover 3 on just 28.5% of snaps (down from 48.1% with the Raiders in 2021), which ranked 12th in the NFL. Instead the Colts started to mix in more two-high shells with a healthy dose of Cover 2 and Cover 6.
The fact that Bradley is finally adapting to the modern NFL is encouraging, but the concerns elsewhere on the defense are legitimate. They start at edge rusher, where there is a noticeable lack of star power. Samson Ebukam and Kwity Paye are both solid players, but there will be concerns about whether they can have the impact as pass rushers that the Colts need. They ranked 52nd and 78th respectively in pressures in 2022.
These pass rush worries are all the more concerning when you look at the cornerback room. Kenny Moore regressed in 2022, allowing the third highest passer rating of any slot cornerback. As for outside corner, this is a team that is reliant on a pair of rookies in Julius Brents and Darius Rush, and Dallis Flowers, who started just one game as a rookie in 2022. Both Brents and Rush have promise, but expecting them to hit the ground running from day one is unrealistic.
Prediction
With the arrival of Shane Steichen and the selection of Anthony Richardson, hopes are understandably high for the future with the Colts. That being said, this feels very much like a transitional season with an offense finding its feet and a defense lacking in talent at key positions. They would do very well to earn a wildcard berth.
