After three straight seasons of winning 13 games, the Packers nosedived in 2022. Despite rallying towards the end of the season they still missed out on the playoffs and had a losing season for just the fourth time in the Aaron Rodgers era. With their franchise quarterback having moved on, things are set to look very different in Green Bay in 2023.
Roster changes
2023 marks the end of an era in Green Bay, with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers departing for the Jets in a trade deal that saw the Packers net a 2023 second round pick, a conditional 2024 pick, and a swap of 2023 first round picks. The departure of Rodgers also saw a number of other long-time Packers depart, including wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, tight end Marcedes Lewis, and kicker Mason Crosby. Starting safety Adrian Amos and tight end Robert Tonyan also moved on in free agency to join the Jets and Bears respectively.
With a very tight cap situation, the Packers weren’t able to do much to replace those players. Their biggest outside free agent acquisition was a long snapper, with Matt Orzech joining on a three-year $3.6 million deal. Their other moves consisted of extensions to current players, with a new one-year extension for Jordan Love and a restructure to Aaron Jones’ deal.
Coaching situation
Whilst there is plenty of change on the field, the Packers have some stability from a coaching perspective. Matt LaFleur is entering his fifth season as the head coach in Green Bay. He has had tremendous success with the team so far, with his 47 wins through his first four years ranking second in NFL history. Adam Stenavich is also returning as offensive coordinator.
On defense, Joe Barry is back for his third season as defensive coordinator, despite plenty of pressure for the Packers to make a change. The only changes of note are Greg Williams being hired as the defense’s passing game coordinator and Ryan Downard being promoted to defensive backs coach. Both replace Jerry Gray, who departed for Atlanta.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.13 | Lukas Van Ness – EDGE, Iowa |
| 2.42 | Luke Musgrave – TE, Oregon State |
| 2.50 | Jayden Reed – WR, Michigan State |
| 3.78 | Tucker Kraft – TE, South Dakota State |
| 4.116 | Colby Wooden – EDGE, Auburn |
| 5.149 | Sean Clifford – QB, Penn State |
| 5.159 | Dontayvion Wicks – WR, Virginia |
| 6.179 | Karl Brooks – IDL, Bowling Green |
| 6.207 | Anders Carlson – K, Auburn |
| 7.232 | Carrington Valentine – CB, Kentucky |
| 7.235 | Lew Nichols III – RB, Central Michigan |
| 7.242 | Anthony Johnson – S, Iowa State |
| 7.256 | Grant DuBose – WR, Charlotte |
Many expected a pass catcher with the Packers’ first pick, but they were smart in adding an edge rusher to what was a noticeably depleted group. Van Ness is admittedly a developmental prospect, but that’s ideal for a team that is under no pressure to win in the short term. The rest of the class was all about adding depth at key spots on defense and surrounding Jordan Love with a range of pass catching weapons. The likes of Musgrave and Reed should see the field early in their Packers careers.
Offense
2023 will be a transitional year for the Packers’ offense, but there are certainly still things to like. Their young group of pass catchers is one. Christian Watson found his feet down the stretch last season and finished 11th amongst receivers in yards per route run. They have now added Jayden Reed, a very capable route runner whose 77.8% win rate against press coverage led all 2023 prospects per Reception Perception. The addition of two tight ends with complementary skillsets in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft shouldn’t go unnoticed either.
The Packers are also returning a very reliable offensive line and one of the best running games in the NFL. Whilst the question marks surrounding David Bakhtiari’s health continue, this is a unit that has shown itself to be more than capable even without their star left tackle. Aaron Jones leads the backfield and is coming off a quietly excellent 2022 season that saw him finish third in both rush yards over expected (RYOE) and forced missed tackle rate.
The question is obviously going to be quarterback. For the first time since 2008, the Packers enter the season with someone other than Aaron Rodgers under center. Jordan Love is set to be just their third starting quarterback since 1992 and despite him being in the league for three years, he remains a totally unknown quantity. Whether he has what it takes to become the Packers’ next franchise quarterback is what will really determine this offense’s season.
Defense
There is some real talent on this Packers defense. For starters, they boast one of the best cornerback rooms in football. Jaire Alexander is amongst the truly elite players at his position, and they have two other good starters in Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas. Douglas has undergone a career renaissance in Green Bay, with nine interceptions through the last two seasons. When healthy, Stokes has also been very reliable.
They match this coverage talent with some real heavyweights in the trenches. Rashan Gary is the jewel in the team’s crown and had the fifth most pressures in the NFL in 2022 before suffering a torn ACL in Week 9. Whilst his timeline for return is uncertain, they can still call upon Kenny Clark, Preston Smith, and a pair of recent first round picks in Devonte Wyatt and Lukas Van Ness.
There will be some questions about whether they have enough quality and depth at safety after the departure of Adrian Amos, but the real worry is their continued inability to translate their talent on paper to results on the field. This has plagued the Packers’ defense for years now, especially against the run, ranking 31st in rush DVOA last season. If they can’t find a way of playing up to their talent, particularly against the run, then nothing else will really matter.
Prediction
For the first time in a long time, the Packers are entering the season without any real expectations of competing for a Lombardi Trophy. This is definitely a transitional season, but the roster has sufficient talent on both sides of the ball to continue competing in what is an open NFC North.
