We’ve reached the final week of fantasy football and if you are lucky you’re fighting for the league title. This is my final fantasy column of the season and I hope the players listed in it can be the difference between winning and losing this weekend. Here are my start and sit recommendations for Week 16.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – I had my doubts about Baker but he seems to be turning things around. Since Week 7 he has been PFF’s highest graded quarterback and has led the NFL in EPA per play. This has translated well to fantasy football too as he has averaged 24.7 points per game through his last four. He has a favourable matchup this weekend against the Jets, who rank 30th against opposing quarterbacks. They are giving up 21.8 points per game to the position and it should be another big weekend for the Browns.
Tom Brady – Last week’s game against the Falcons epitomised the contrasting levels of performance we’ve seen from Brady and the Bucs this season. They were abject in the first half, before Brady had over 300 passing yards in the second. The propensity to disappear is a concern, but once again this is a matchup that is too good to miss. The Bucs face a torrid Lions defense who gave up 0.499 EPA per play to the Titans. This should be a pretty straightforward matchup.
Sit ‘Em
Russell Wilson – Wilson hasn’t been at his best for a while and his early season MVP form seems a very long time ago. He’s scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in three of his last four games and Seattle look to be moving away from the pass-heavy attack that had so much success to start the season. The matchup isn’t great here either, facing a Rams defense that are allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Wilson scored 9.9 points the last time they faced off and I’m not willing to gamble on him again.
Ben Roethlisberger – The slide continued for the Steelers last weekend and questions about Big Ben and this offense are getting louder. He hasn’t been helped by receivers dropping passes, but this offense has been dinking and dunking its way through the season and when that stops working, there aren’t any easy answers. Roethlisberger seems unable to push the ball downfield and has not scored 20+ points since Week 10. With a tough matchup against the Colts there is no way I would start him.
Running backs
Start ‘Em
Le’Veon Bell – With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out injured, Bell will be the next man up in the Chiefs backfield. He should get the bulk of the carries this weekend against the Falcons and feature in the passing game too. He’s looked good in limited reps for the Chiefs this season and was solid against the Saints, with 60 yards on 13 carries. If he can put up those kind of numbers against the league’s best run defense, he should be able to replicate it in other matchups. The Falcons are one of the league’s better run defenses, but I think from a volume perspective Bell is worth taking this weekend.
Miles Sanders – Sanders is still not back to his early season levels of production, but he’s looked better with Jalen Hurts under center. Hurts’ mobility has opened up more opportunities in the running game for Sanders and this weekend looks like an excellent matchup. Philadelphia face a Cowboys defense that ranks 26th against opposing running backs, giving up 25.2 points per game to the position. Sanders gets plenty of volume within this Eagles offense and should have a big game this weekend.
Sit ‘Em
Mike Davis – Davis has been really impressive filling in for McCaffrey this season. He’s averaged 4.1 yards per carry and ranks behind only Dalvin Cook in forced missed tackles this season. That said, he hasn’t been putting up much from a fantasy standpoint in a while. He has scored fewer than 11 points in six of his last eight outings and hasn’t actually had a 100+ yard game since Week 6. His touchdowns have also dried up, with three in his last eight games. This weekend he faces one of the league’s toughest run defenses in Washington and he will struggle again.
Kareem Hunt – Hunt has been a solid player for most of the year but his value is declining. After logging double digit carries in every game up to Week 13, he’s had six and seven in the two since. He’s coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season (4.8 points) and isn’t going to be helped by a depleted Browns offensive line this weekend. The Jets are a tougher run defense than many people realise and it could be another quiet one for Hunt.
Wide receivers
Start ‘Em
Tee Higgins – Justin Jefferson may have been getting all of the rookie receiver hype, but Higgins has been quietly putting together an excellent debut campaign. His production has inevitably declined sine Joe Burrow’s injury but this weekend’s matchup is difficult to ignore. He comes up against the Texans, who have one of the NFL’s worst coverage units. Their starting corners have both allowed a passer rating over 95 and Houston rank 23rd against opposing receivers, giving up 39.4 points per game. He also accounted for six of Ryan Finley’s 13 targets last weekend and should feature heavily with Tyler Boyd out.
Jakobi Meyers – The Patriots may have their limitations this season, but you can bet that Meyers will receive plenty of targets each week. He’s coming off a strong showing against a good Dolphins defense and I’m expecting good things here. The Bills have been effective in coverage, but their weakness is at slot corner. Bill Belichick will make sure to target that and Meyers will be the main beneficiary. I still have concerns about the Patriots’ offensive potential but Meyers is worth a shot on volume alone.
Sit ‘Em
Marquise Brown – We’ve not seen the kind of breakout season many were expecting from Brown this season. He had a good showing last week with six catches for 98 yards, but it was admittedly against Jacksonville. Consistency has been the problem. Brown has gone over 50 yards just twice since Week 6 and his issues with drops continue to hamper his production. This weekend he will face James Bradberry, who has been one of the NFL’s best corners this season. I’m not a fan of this matchup and there are many better options than Brown this weekend.
Chase Claypool – The Steelers have been struggling on offense and Claypool has taken a hit to his fantasy value as a result. He has failed to score over 8 points in his last three games and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 11. He’s not been putting up great yardage either, failing to go over 60 yards in his last six games. Add to this a matchup against a tough Colts secondary and this is not a matchup I’m interesting in taking. Claypool has impressed, but he doesn’t provide enough fantasy value.
Tight ends
Start ‘Em
Logan Thomas – Washington enter Week 16 as the improbable favourites for the NFC East. Whilst that has been mainly a result of a strong defense, their offense has its weapons. Thomas has been a breakout player for them this year and has scored double digit points in his last four games. This includes two games of 20+ points and Thomas currently ranks as TE5 in fantasy football. He’s been a favourite target of Dwayne Haskins and has a great matchup against Carolina. The Panthers rank 25th against tight ends, giving up 14.2 points per game to the position.
Austin Hooper – The Jets beat the Rams last weekend, but Los Angeles caused problems with their tight ends. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett both had strong showings and so I’m expecting something similar from the Browns. Hooper should get a decent number of targets against a poor defense that gave up over 25 points to the position last week. If Baker Mayfield continues to impress this could be an even better option.
Sit ‘Em
Zach Ertz – Ertz has struggled with injuries this season but he’s not made much of an impact when he’s been on the field. He’s had just 286 yards and a single touchdown through nine games. He’s averaged a passer rating when targeted of 59.1, the worst amongst tight ends with at least 25 targets. He hasn’t scored double digit fantasy points since Week 3 and despite Dallas’ defensive woes, they’ve actually been pretty solid against tight ends. He’s always got big game potential, but until I see any evidence of recovery I’m not tempted.
Evan Engram – Engram’s selection to the Pro Bowl was one of the most controversial of 2021. He’s been pretty underwhelming all season, with persistent drops and an inability to reach the end zone. He ranks as just TE14 and has scored less than nine points in each of his last three games. Regardless of who is at quarterback, I’ve given up on Engram as a legitimate fantasy option this season.
Defenses
Start ‘Em
Cleveland Browns – I picked the Browns as my defense last week thanks to a favourable matchup and it paid off. They gave up just six points and 288 yards, finishing with eight fantasy points. I’m taking them for the same reason this weekend as they prepare to face the Jets. Unsurprisingly the Jets allow the most points to opposing defenses, giving up 9.7 points per game. I still have my reservations about the Browns defense, but this is a matchup well worth taking.
Sit ‘Em
Green Bay Packers – The Packers have been good this year but this isn’t a great matchup. Their run defense ranks amongst the worst in the NFL, never a good thing when facing Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has also been hitting his stride recently and this game has all the hallmarks of a shootout. Henry has a change to break the record for consecutive 100+ yard road games and this should be a big game.