It’s playoff time in fantasy football! Congratulations to those of you who have made it. Lineup changes and free agent signings don’t get more important than in these next two weeks. Here are my start and sit recommendations for Week 15.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Kyler Murray – I get it, this may seem like stating the obvious. The thing is, Murray hasn’t been at his best since suffering his shoulder injury and it has impacted his fantasy production too. After scoring a season-low 7.9 points against the Patriots in Week 12 he has been under 19 in both games since. That said, he was showing signs of being back to his best last week and he’s being used as a runner again. This Eagles defense has a tonne of problems in coverage and Murray should get plenty of chances to put up points.
Tom Brady – The last few weeks haven’t been great for the Bucs but they’ve got a great schedule ahead of them. This weekend they’ve got a divisional matchup against the Falcons. Luckily for Tom Brady that means facing one of the league’s worst defenses. Atlanta rank 32nd against opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 23.1 points per game. Brady hasn’t been at his best in recent weeks, but I’m always going to back him in a matchup like this.
Sit ‘Em
Teddy Bridgewater – Bridgewater hasn’t been a bad quarterback for the Panthers, but I wouldn’t consider starting him this weekend. His numbers have been helped significantly as a result of three rushing touchdowns in 10 attempts over his last four games. This isn’t sustainable and his passing numbers aren’t enough to rely on either. He’s not had a single game with three or more passing touchdowns and this weekend has to face a tough coverage unit with the Packers. Green Bay ranks eighth against opposing quarterbacks, giving up just 16.4 points per game.
Mitchell Trubisky – It seemed impossible only a few weeks ago but Trubisky looks to have the starting job again in Chicago. He’s been good from a fantasy perspective and is coming off an impressive game against Houston that saw him score 24.9 points. I’m not buying the hype though and this Vikings defense is getting better with each week that passes. Whilst their pass-rush remains almost entirely absent, they make life difficult for the opposition and rank fifth in red zone defense.
Running backs
Start ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – I had Swift as my top running back in the 2020 class and whilst he might not have put up the numbers that others have, he’s beginning to take on a much bigger role for the Lions. He had double digit carries in both games before his injury and looked good in his return last week against the Packers. Matthew Stafford is questionable for Week 15 and if he’s out the Lions will commit much more to the run. Add to this a matchup against the Titans who rank 27th against opposing running backs and its an easy decision to make.
Wayne Gallman – Gallman has been surprisingly effective since taking over as the Giants’ lead back. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry this season, 3.7 of which are coming after contact. Regardless of who is in at quarterback, the Giants are going to want to lean on their running game this weekend and Gallman will be the biggest beneficiary. He’s got a good matchup too, facing a Browns defense ranked 21st in rushing DVOA and coming off a game where they allowed over seven yards per carry.
Sit ‘Em
Ezekiel Elliott – If you haven’t already, it is finally time to consider dropping Zeke. The big contract looked risky at the time and its proven true as his production has evaporated this season. He’s had a single 100+ yard game in 2020 and lacks his usual elusiveness, ranking just 18th in forced missed tackles. He’s also scored single digits in five of his last seven games. To make matters worse he enters the weekend with injury concerns and has to face the 49ers. San Francisco are the fifth ranked defense against running backs, allowing just 19.7 points per game to the position.
James Conner – I’m not sure if the Steelers can’t run the ball, or whether they just aren’t willing to try. Either way, it isn’t good for James Conner. He hasn’t had a 100+ yard game since Week 6 and has just a single touchdown across his last five games. The matchup against the Bengals is a favourable one, but he’s banged up and out of form. Maybe he’ll have a big game, but I wouldn’t want to rely on it.
Wide receivers
Start ‘Em
Corey Davis – Davis has been one of the surprises of the season. After underwhelming through his first three years, he is on pace for his first 1,000 yard campaign. He was quiet last week against Jacksonville but should play a bigger role in Week 15. A.J. Brown has been limited in practice so you can expect an increase in target share for Davis. He’s also got an excellent matchup against a Lions defense giving up 41.9 points per game to opposing receivers. This looks like a no-brainer.
Brandon Aiyuk – Aiyuk might not have had the most explosive start to his rookie season but he’s been impressive in recent weeks. He’s averaged 7.2 catches and 99 yards through his last five games and has contributed three touchdowns. This includes games against some of the NFL’s best defenses in Washington and New Orleans. He is clearly becoming the focal point of this 49ers passing attack and this week should be no different. Dallas rank 26th against opposing wide receivers, allowing an average of 40.5 points per game.
Sit ‘Em
K.J. Hamler – Hamler had a great game last week against the Panthers. He hauled in two of his three targets, going for 86 yards and two touchdowns. This saw him put up 22.6 fantasy points, one of the best totals of the weekend. Don’t chase the points though. This could be the first of many big games for Hamler, but with the way Drew Lock is playing at the moment I wouldn’t bank on it. He’s also spreading the ball around and the Broncos haven’t had a player with more than five catches since Week 9.
D.J. Chark – Chark is a good player but there is no way I’m considering him this weekend. The Jags face the Ravens who have one of the league’s best coverage units. The Jags’ instability at quarterback doesn’t help either and Chark hasn’t scored double digit points since Week 9 against the Texans. Regardless of who is under center this is a tough matchup and there are better options available.
Tight ends
Start ‘Em
Eric Ebron – Ebron has benefitted from Pittsburgh’s pass-heavy offense and has been getting a steady stream of targets for a number of weeks now. Drops have been an issue (five in his last three games), but he’s kept producing. He has double digit points in three of his last four games and this weekend faces the Bengals. Cincinnati rank 29th against tight ends and he should get plenty of opportunities.
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk is not the same player he was in New England, but he’s been productive since his return. He has 507 yards and five touchdowns and is currently TE10 in fantasy football. He continues to be a red zone weapon for Brady and the Bucs and has an excellent matchup this weekend. They face the Falcons, who rank 28th against tight ends, allowing 15.3 points per game to the position.
Sit ‘Em
Dallas Goedert – The Eagles surprised everyone with their win last week, but I still have my concerns about Goedert here. With Jalen Hurts looking more to his wide receivers than his tight ends, Goedert’s value is inevitably going to decrease. The return of Zach Ertz doesn’t help either. Add to this the fact that the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to covering tight ends and this matchup doesn’t look too good.
Dalton Schultz – Schultz has been a reliable option for most of 2020 but he’s been on the slide recently. He has scored in the single digits for three straight weeks and has one touchdown in his last nine outings. The matchup against the 49ers this weekend is a tough one and he’s going to have his work cut out. The 49ers are the NFL’s best team at covering tight ends, allowing just 8.3 points per game. There is no way I would consider him this weekend.
Defenses
Start ‘Em
Cleveland Browns – The Browns’ defense isn’t good, but as so often is the case in fantasy football, it is the matchup that counts. They face the Giants this weekend who look like they will be without Daniel Jones again. Whilst New York’s defense has been impressive, their offense has been consistently lacklustre. Add to this an offensive line that is leaking pressure and the possibility of rookie left tackle facing up against Myles Garrett. This should be a good game for the Browns.
Sit ‘Em
Washington Football Team – Washington have been surprisingly effective on defense this year. Going into Week 15 they rank third in EPA and fourth in DVOA. They have also held their opponents under 18 points in each of their last four games. They’ve got a tough test this weekend though as they prepare to face Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. There’s a chance that Seattle collapse like they did against the Giants, but I’m not willing to rely on that happening again.