We’ve reached the final week of the fantasy football regular season already. This weekend is your last chance to secure a playoff spot for 2020. There are as always some exciting matchups and interesting fantasy options available. Here are my recommendations on who to start and sit to get the edge this weekend.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee’s offense might be run-heavy but that hasn’t stopped Tannehill from being a really effective fantasy quarterback in 2020. He’s been great over the past few weeks, scoring 19+ points in each of his last three games. He made the most of a poor Browns secondary last week, passing for 389 yards and three touchdowns. This weekend he faces the Jags, whose defense ranks 31st in DVOA this season. They are allowing the fourth most points to opposing quarterbacks, giving up an average of 21.9 per game.
Justin Herbert – Everything went pear shaped for the Chargers last week and Herbert suffered too. He finished the game against the Patriots with just 209 yards and two picks, totalling just 4.3 fantasy points. That said, this performance was a significant outlier and that game shouldn’t deter you from starting him this weekend. He’s got an excellent matchup against the Falcons who rank 32nd against opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta are allowing 23.7 points per game and Herbert should do well.
Sit ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – Mayfield delivered one of the weirdest performances of Week 13. He was lights out in the first half, with almost 300 yards and four touchdowns, before disappearing after halftime. That’s been a pretty good reflection of his season and he has been one of the NFL’s more erratic quarterbacks on a week-to-week basis. This weekend he has a really tough test against a Baltimore defense that gave him all sorts of trouble in Week 1. The wide variety of outcomes with Mayfield is too big to make him a viable fantasy starter.
Jalen Hurts – Hurts was impressive when he came off the bench for Carson Wentz last week. He moved the ball well and added an extra dimension with his mobility outside the pocket. He’s been the most added quarterback in fantasy football this week ahead of Mayfield but I wouldn’t go near him. Hurts and the Eagles face a Saints defense that have been one of the league’s best in recent weeks. They haven’t given up more than 16 points in a game in four weeks and they rank fourth against opposing quarterbacks.
Running backs
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David Montgomery – The Bears’ quarterback situation might be a bit of a mess but you can rely on David Montgomery. In his last two games he’s had a combined 175 rushing yards, with another 79 as a receiver. Both of these games were against two of the league’s worst rushing defenses in the Packers and Lions, with Montgomery scoring 25+ points in each game. He’s got another excellent matchup here as he faces off against the Texans. Houston rank 31st against running backs, giving up an average of 31.6 points per game to the position.
Myles Gaskin – Despite missing four games with injury, Gaskin hit the ground running last week against the Bengals. He finished the game with 21 carries, his most since Week 3. He’s been consistently productive this season and he should continue that against the Chiefs this weekend. Kansas City rank 20th against opposing running backs and are giving up 23.6 points per game. Gaskin has accounted for 61 per cent of all Dolphins carries when he’s been healthy and he should get volume again this weekend.
Sit ‘Em
Miles Sanders – Sanders has been pretty disappointing since his return from injury. He’s failed to score 10 fantasy points in each of his last three games and has just 134 total yards in that period. This is probably enough of a reason to sit him before even considering the matchup. New Orleans rank 1st against opposing running backs, giving up just 16.1 points per game. As much as the Eagles will want to help Jalen Hurts by establishing the run, I don’t see them getting any success out of it.
Zack Moss – The Bills’ backfield pairing of Moss and Devin Singletary is one of the best young partnerships in the NFL. That said, the split in carries really isn’t conducive to fantasy success. Since Week 8 Moss has accounted for 42 carries, compared to Singletary’s 49. Last week was a concern too, with Moss’ fumble leading to a benching and just three carries all game. Add to this the matchup against the Steelers and there are many better options to consider at running back this weekend.
Wide receivers
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Jamison Crowder – It isn’t often that you see a member of the Jets’ offense make this list but Crowder deserves it this weekend. He looked good in Week 13, with five catches for 47 yards and two touchdowns propelling him to 21.7 fantasy points. He made the most of a lacklustre Raiders secondary and he’ll get another opportunity to do the same thing this weekend. Seattle’s defense has been awful, allowing over 300 passing yards per game, ranked 32nd in the NFL. They are also the worst fantasy defense against wide receivers, allowing 48.2 points per game. The Jets might not be a great team but Crowder should do well here.
T.Y. Hilton – Hilton has looked really good over the last couple of games for the Colts. After not having a receiving touchdown in his first nine games he’s managed one in back-to-back outings. He’s scored 18+ points in each of those two games and should continue to do well this weekend against the Raiders. Vegas have struggled on defense all year and rank 27th in EPA allowed per play. They’ve given up an average of 38.1 points to receivers this season and Hilton should cause their corners a bunch of problems.
Sit ‘Em
Marvin Jones – Jones is coming off an excellent game against the Bears last week. He hauled in eight of his 12 targets, racking up 116 yards and a touchdown. He’s been a big part of the Lions’ offense with Kenny Golladay out injured but he’s going to have a tough time here. He’ll likely be matched up against Jaire Alexander, which proved difficult last time these teams faced off. In Week 2 the Packers held Jones to just 23 yards and Alexander allowed just 11 on three targets against Jones. The Packers have been pretty solid in coverage and are allowing the sixth fewest points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Jerry Jeudy – I still have faith in Jeudy. Despite being outshone by the likes of Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb this season he has shown the promise that made me value him as my WR1 in the 2020 Draft. The problem is his lack of opportunities. His fantasy value has been limited in recent weeks, with just four catches and a total of 8.2 fantasy points across his last three games. He isn’t getting enough targets from Drew Lock and with his practice limited this week I’d avoid him for this week, despite a relatively favourable matchup against the Panthers.
Tight ends
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Hunter Henry – Henry was a fantasy casualty of an offensive meltdown against the Patriots last week, with just one catch for five yards. Nevertheless, his production in recent weeks has been trending in the right direction. He’s posted double digit points in each of the three games before Week 13 and this week has an excellent opportunity against the Falcons. Atlanta rank 27th against tight ends, giving up 15.7 points per game.
Hayden Hurst – Hurst has admittedly been limited in recent weeks. Since the Falcons’ bye in Week 10 he has just five catches for 57 yards and no touchdowns. He has been limited in practice too so it is worth keeping a close eye on the injury report. That said, the matchup here is too good to ignore. The Chargers have struggled in the secondary all season and they are allowing 13.1 points to tight ends per game. With Julio Jones out there is the potential for a bigger role for Hurst this weekend.
Sit ‘Em
Zach Ertz – Not too long ago Ertz was a week in, week out starter in fantasy football. Things have changed and even when he’s been able to play he’s been hampered by a dreadful offense. Jalen Hurts might improve things in the long-run, but this week is going to be a challenge. The Saints are looking excellent right now and they rank 10th against tight ends this season. Ertz had just two catches in his return against the Packers last week and he’ll be limited again in this one.
Tyler Higbee – Higbee had a good game against the Cardinals last week, scoring 12.4 points. He was helped substantially by a touchdown, his first since Week 2. He’s only had two double digit performances this season and has had to share targets with Gerald Everett. He’s facing a Patriots defense that have struggled this season but who have been consistently impressive against tight ends. They rank fourth, allowing just 9 points per game to the position.
Defenses
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Green Bay Packers – It isn’t often that the Packers defense makes this list. This a case of matchups though and this week is favourable for Green Bay. They’ve been a solid coverage unit all year, ranking 13th in passing EPA, and should be able to take care of the Lions passing attack. Their weakness is their run defense, something the Lions are awful at. Detroit rank 30th in rushing EPA and I think Green Bay should be able to cope pretty well in this one.
Sit ‘Em
Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins defense has been excellent this season and that isn’t a sentence I was expecting to say this time last year. That said, the matchup this weekend isn’t great. The Chiefs have been predictably strong on offense this season, leading the league in both EPA and DVOA. They might not be blowing teams away every weekend but you can rely on them to score points. This makes the Dolphins a no-go for Week 14.