Week 13 is definitely a little different. We’ve got no Thursday night football and instead have two Monday games and one on Tuesday. This obviously changes things from a fantasy perspective too as leagues everywhere are hotting up as the playoff race intensifies. Here are some recommendations on who to start and sit to get the edge this weekend.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Philip Rivers – Rivers has been pretty up and down this season, but he’s put together a solid run of games over the last few weeks. Since Week 10 he has averaged 297 yards and two touchdowns per game. This weekend he’s got a favourable matchup against Houston, whose defense ranks 25th in DVOA and 30th in EPA allowed per play. I’m expecting a fair few points in this one.
Ryan Tannehill – Much like last year, Tannehill has been quietly putting up great numbers. He ranks fifth in quarterback efficiency and the Titans are second in passing DVOA behind the Chiefs. He’s been effective in recent weeks against some tough defenses and gets a much kinder outing this week against a Browns defense that allowed 235 passing yards and two touchdowns to Mike Glennon and the Jags. He should continue his good run of form here.
Sit ‘Em
Matt Ryan – At first it might seem crazy to for Ryan to be on this list. After all, the Falcons hammered the Raiders 43-6 last week. In truth that wasn’t Ryan’s doing as he finished with just 185 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. He’s struggled without Julio Jones too, completing just 54.5 per cent of passes in his three starts without his star wideout. The Saints held Ryan to just 5.2 fantasy points when they met in Week 11 and I’d sit him here.
Carson Wentz – Wentz has been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. Things are different in fantasy though, where he ranks a respectable 14th. That said, I wouldn’t be taken in by his 18.8 points against Seattle last week. This week he’s facing a Green Bay defense who have been excellent in coverage. They rank eighth against opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 16.7 fantasy points per game.
Running backs
Start ‘Em
Miles Sanders – You can’t rely on Carson Wentz, but the Eagles’ running game is solid in fantasy football. Sanders didn’t have his best outing against Seattle last week, but the Seahawks are actually one of the league’s better run defenses. He has 75 per cent of the Eagles’ carries since his return and has a good matchup this weekend. Green Bay rank 22nd in rushing EPA allowed and are giving up 30.9 fantasy points per game to running backs.
Wayne Gallman – I’ve been really impressed with Gallman this season. He’s stepped up in Saquon Barkley’s absence and has been improving as the season has gone on. Four of his last five games have come against top ten fantasy defenses. In that period he has averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game. His volume increased with Colt McCoy under center last week and that should continue here. The Seahawks are good against the run but Gallman has shown he can perform against top competition.
Sit ‘Em
Todd Gurley – It still isn’t 100 per cent clear whether or not Gurley will be ready to play this weekend, but I wouldn’t start him even if he is. For one there is the question of his fitness. There is also the matchup against the NFL’s best run defense in the Saints. In their last three games they’ve allowed just 67 rushing yards per game Gurley could struggle. There are plenty of other options at running back that I’d consider before this one.
Latavius Murray – Murray was really impressive last weekend against the Broncos. He had 19 carries for 124 yards and was a key part of a notably run-heavy offense. Don’t count on it happening again though. The Falcons defense isn’t great in coverage, but they actually rank sixth in rushing DVOA. Murray has also had just two games over 11 points this season and I wouldn’t rely on a repeat showing.
Wide receivers
Start ‘Em
Brandin Cooks – Deshaun Watson been excellent in recent weeks and Cooks should be the biggest beneficiary in Week 13. With Will Fuller suspended, Cooks will become the Texans undisputed No. 1 receiver for the rest of the season. Fuller accounted for a third of all of Houston’s receiver targets in 2020 and so Cook’s workload should increase immediately against the Colts. It isn’t the easiest matchup, but with the way Watson is playing they should put up some good numbers.
Cooper Kupp – Kupp has been a little bit disappointing this season and hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 4. That said, he’s got a goood matchup this weekend. The Rams face a Cardinals defense allowing 39.3 points per game to wide receivers, ranked 23rd in the NFL. Kupp’s targets have increased in recent weeks and he’s got a good track record against Arizona. Last season he had 13 receptions for 164 yards and two touchdowns in two games against the Cardinals and I’m expecting another good showing here.
Sit ‘Em
Tyler Boyd – I expected Tee Higgins to take a hit in fantasy football with Joe Burrow out, but he continued to perform with 15.4 points against the Giants. Tyler Boyd wasn’t so lucky though, with his 4.5 points representing a season-low. The matchup this weekend isn’t any better either. He faces a Dolphins defense that ranks sixth in EPA allowed since coming off their bye in Week 7.
Cole Beasley – Beasley looked good last week and topped off his performance with a trick-play touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis. He’s got a tough matchup this weekend though and faces a 49ers team who have been really effective at containing slot receivers. Add to this the fact that San Francisco are allowing the eighth fewest points to opposing receivers and it looks even less appealing.
Tight ends
Start ‘Em
Robert Tonyan – The Packers have been one of the league’s most efficient passing teams and Tonyan has benefitted. Entering Week 13 he ranks as TE4 and is behind only Davante Adams in receptions for Green Bay. He’s looked really impressive over the last few weeks and has a favourable matchup against an Eagles team who rank 22nd against opposition tight ends, allowing 13.4 points per game.
Evan Engram – Engram was on this list last week and if you started him it paid off big time. He had six catches and 129 yards, helping him to 16.9 points against the Bengals. The matchup is good here too as he faces a Seattle team giving up 328.8 passing yards per game, by far the most in the NFL. Regardless of who is at quarterback he should get plenty of opportunities.
Sit ‘Em
Austin Hooper – I’ll admit, I got the Hooper situation wrong last week. Despite an ideal matchup against the Jags he managed just 9.3 points and has now failed to register 10+ in a game since Week 6. Despite the Browns’ 8-3 record I’m not convinced and think they will have a tough game against Tennessee. Whilst the matchup is good for Hooper on paper, I’ve not seen enough to trust him here.
Logan Thomas – As impressive as Thomas was last weekend, don’t be fooled. There is a world of difference between performing against the Cowboys defense (ranked 24th in DVOA and 26th in EPA), and doing it against the Steelers, who rank first in both categories. They are also allowing a league-best 7.3 points to tight ends per game.
Defenses
Start ‘Em
Miami Dolphins – Who’d have thought entering the season that the Dolphins defense would rank third in fantasy points allowed? I certainly didn’t. They are coming off an excellent game against the Jets where they allowed just three points and got three sacks and two picks. This weekend they face a Bengals team with no Joe Burrow and a porous offensive line. I’m expecting big things again.
Sit ‘Em
New England Patriots – How the mighty have fallen. The Patriots defense has dropped from 1st in DVOA in 2019 to 31st this season. They’ve also dropped from 1st in fantasy scoring (14 points per game) to 15th (5.7 points per game). This week they face Justin Herbert and the Chargers who have a habit of racking up yardage and making big plays. I think the Patriots’ time as an every-week starter in fantasy football is well and truly at an end.