Despite the Falcons showing some signs of improvement in Arthur Smith’s second season, they once again finished 7-10. This put them fourth in the NFC South for the second time in three years. It also marked their fifth consecutive losing season for the first time since the 1980s. The team will be hoping to see an uptick in results in 2023.
Roster changes
The Falcons entered the offseason with over $50 million in cap space and they made the most of it. Their biggest move was the addition of Jessie Bates, with the former Bengals safety signing a four-year $64 million deal. They bolstered their defense further, bring cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes over from Detroit and adding defensive tackle David Onyemata and linebacker Kaden Elliss from divisional rivals New Orleans.
The additions didn’t stop there. Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree provide more veteran reinforcement on defense, with both players signing one-year deals. They also added more pass catching depth with receiver Mack Hollins and tight end Jonnu Smith. The Falcons didn’t lose much either, with Marcus Mariota and Olamide Zaccheaus the only departures to have played at least 60% of snaps in 2022.
Coaching situation
This is a big year for Arthur Smith as after an assortment of new hires it finally feels like this is his group. Following the retirement of defensive coordinator Dean Pees, the team moved on from all but one of their defensive coaches. They have hired Ryan Nielsen as Pees’ replacement. Nielsen was most recently with division rival New Orleans as the co-defensive coordinator and defensive line coach.
There is some continuity on the offensive side of the ball though. Arthur Smith is obviously a central part of this offensive system, and he will once again join forces with Dave Ragone. Ragone is entering his third season as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator, whilst also taking over as the team’s quarterback coach.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.8 | Bijan Robinson – RB, Texas |
| 2.38 | Matthew Bergeron – OT, Syracuse |
| 3.75 | Zach Harrison – EDGE, Ohio State |
| 4.113 | Clark Phillips – CB, Utah |
| 7.224 | DeMarcco Hellams – S, Alabama |
| 7.225 | Jovaughn Gwyn – IOL, South Carolina |
There is plenty of debate to be had around the merits of drafting a running back inside the top ten, but there is little doubt that in Bijan Robinson the Falcons have landed them an exceptional prospect who will be a key contributor out of the gate. They also added a real talent in Matthew Bergeron, who looks set to kick inside to guard in the NFL. Keep an eye on Clark Phillips too. The former Utah corner is small but feisty, and could prove to be a real bargain.
Offense
With Ragone returning as offensive coordinator under Arthur Smith, you can expect the Falcons to once again lean on their running game. And why not? Atlanta were dominant on the ground throughout 2022, ranking fourth in EPA per rush and fifth in rush success rate. They already had a very good back in Tyler Allgeier and now add Bijan Robinson to the mix. They also have an excellent offensive line, with Chris Lindstrom in particular establishing himself as one of the game’s best guards.
Whilst the Falcons don’t pass the ball a tonne, they have nevertheless built an intriguing group of pass catchers. This group is obviously headlined by Drake London and Kyle Pitts, two excellent young talents who are both capable of serving as the focal point of a passing game. The rest of their receiving corps might not be made up of big names, but the players are all versatile weapons that give Atlanta a flexibility in terms of alignment and personnel that few other teams can match. This desire for multiplicity has only been aided by the acquisition of Bijan Robinson.
This feels like a unit that could be a force in 2023. Their ceiling however, is going to be determined by the quarterback. The Falcons are clearly confident in Desmond Ridder, but he remains largely an unknown quantity. He played in just four games as a rookie, with only 115 pass attempts to his name. With an exciting scheme and plenty of talent, this team only need Ridder to be solid, but is even that a realistic expectation for the former third round pick?
Defense
The Falcons defense was pretty bleak in 2022 and finished 30th in DVOA. Change was required, and you can expect this unit to look very different under Ryan Nielsen in 2023. Under Dean Pees, the Falcons played a tonne of single high coverages. They also played a lot of zone coverage and played Cover 3 at the third highest rate in the NFL. By contrast, Nielsen’s Saints ranked 31st in Cover 3 rate and 26th in single high coverages. His defense used a lot more two-high shells and played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL.
If you’re going to do that you need talent in the secondary and there is certainly reason for optimism surrounding the Falcons’ secondary ahead of 2023. Jessie Bates is a huge addition at safety and opens up all sorts of options in terms of coverage shells and disguises. AJ Terrell seems due for positive regression, whilst the bevy of other additions at cornerback should at least improve things from a coverage perspective.
The question, as ever with Atlanta, is going to be whether they have enough up front to get the job done. Their inability to pressure quarterbacks has crippled them for years. The Falcons have had just 38 sacks over the last two seasons, easily the lowest total in football. Whilst they have made a number of nice additions in the trenches, they still don’t have a single player that will terrify offenses in terms of the pass rushing ability. In the modern pass-happy NFL that’s a tough situation to overcome.
Prediction
The Falcons seem to be going under the radar this year. Their season admittedly hangs on whether Desmond Ridder can become an NFL calibre quarterback, but if he is at least serviceable this has the potential to be one of the most potent offenses in football. They can certainly push for a playoff spot in an eminently winnable NFC South.
