The 2023 safety class is an interesting bunch. Whilst it pales in comparison to recent classes as far as deep safeties are concerned, it offers tremendous depth when it comes to box safeties and nickel backs. Here are my top ten safety prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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1. Brian Branch, Alabama (6-0, 190, Junior)
Pros: Branch is quite simply one of the best and most reliable tacklers you will ever come across at the safety position. His combination of approach angles, tackling technique, and play strength are excellent and he missed just four of 174 career attempts in college. Branch is also a very adept run defender who plays far bigger than his size would suggest. He is a noticeably cerebral player too, with impressive instincts and a good feel for coverage. His ability to cover big slot receivers and tight ends in single coverage is another major strength.
Cons: The biggest worry with Branch will be his long speed. This showed up most noticeably when he was challenged by quicker receivers from the slot. When he can’t get his hands on opponents early, Branch lacks the top gear to consistently carry vertical routes. This is the kind of thing that will be more pronounced at the NFL level. He also played almost exclusively as a slot cornerback during his time at Alabama, with just 101 snaps as a free safety during his three seasons with the Crimson Tide.
Projection: 1st round
2. Christopher Smith, Georgia (5-11, 192, rs-Senior)
Pros: Smith is a smooth and fluid athlete born to play safety. He is a very smart player who trusts his instincts and possesses a lightning fast trigger. This allows him to play far faster than his physical tools might suggest and it also saw him make plenty of plays at the catch point. Smith forced an incompletion on an incredible 18% of his career targets at Georgia. He is also a considered and effective run defender who takes good pursuit angles from deep.
Cons: Smith lacks ideal long speed and this limits his ability to consistently hold up in man coverage. He can also stand to improve his technique when working from the slot as he will get caught flat footed at the top of routes, allowing receivers far too much separation. Smith has a frustrating tendency to stop his feet on contact, which limits his ability to consistently wrap up in one-on-one situations. He is also a little smaller than you would ideally like an NFL safety to be.
Projection: 2nd round
3. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M (6-2, 198, Junior)
Pros: It is immediately apparent when you turn on the tape that Johnson is a very smart and cerebral safety. He reads both the run and the pass very well and trusts his instincts to trigger quickly. He pairs this with some solid athletic traits, with fluid hips and good long speed. This allowed him to be utilised both in man coverage and as zone defender from the slot. Johnson is also a physical and willing run defender who packs a real punch on contact.
Cons: Johnson lacks the ball production that you ideally want in a safety prospect. In his three seasons with Texas A&M he was targeted 106 times in coverage and had just one interception and one pass breakup. Johnson played primarily as a nickel back but when he was asked to work from deep he struggled to consistently play with good pursuit angles. He also has a noticeably thin frame for a safety who spends most of his time near the line of scrimmage.
Projection: 2nd round
4. Jammie Robinson, Florida State (5-11, 191, Senior)
Pros: Robinson’s calling card is his versatility. Throughout his four seasons at South Carolina and Florida State he was utilised in a variety of roles and looked comfortable working from the box or as a split-field safety. He is one of the most dependable tacklers in this class, logging just 12 missed on 171 attempts over the last two seasons. Robinson is a nimble and springy athlete who can mirror nicely in coverage and he also showcases a tremendous motor with relentless effort.
Cons: Robinson is a little more limited than you would like when it comes to his range and is not the kind of player you want playing a tonne of single-high coverage. That is less than ideal for a player who is on the smaller side. Robinson’s lack of height and length can lead to issues in defending the run, where he will often get stuck on blocks. He will also get bullied throughout the route too often, especially when matched up with bigger slot receivers and tight ends.
Projection: 3rd round
5. Sydney Brown, Illinois (5-10, 211, rs-Senior)
Pros: Brown is a true ball hawk, with 23 career forced incompletions to his name, including six interceptions in 2022. He is a very experienced prospect too and is entering the NFL with five years of starting experience under his belt. Brown is blessed with good size and an NFL-ready frame, as well as the explosiveness and long speed to translate well as a free safety. Teams are going to love his tenacious playstyle and he has the potential to be a high quality contributor on special teams too.
Cons: Brown needs plenty of work as a tackler. He often attempts the big hit instead of wrapping up with technique and this saw him miss 17.8% of his career attempts. He spent the vast majority of his college career operating as a box safety, but given his issues as a tackler that is unlikely to be where he plays in the NFL. Brown does have some issues when it comes to his fluidity – this doesn’t match his linear athleticism and can cause issues when asked to play in single coverage.
Projection: 3rd round
6. JL Skinner, Boise State (6-4, 209, Senior)
Pros: Skinner ticks the boxes when it comes to his height and length. He is a good athlete for his size too, showcasing some impressive short area quickness and the sideline-to-sideline speed to shut down the running game. Skinner plays with the kind of physicality you might expect for someone his size and loves to lay big hits when coming downhill. He also offers some nice ball skills, with seven interceptions and 10 pass breakups on 95 career targets.
Cons: Skinner has a thin frame and will need to add muscle mass to ease his transition to the NFL. He is also high cut with some noticeable hip tightness. This limits his ability to quickly pivot and also caused problems when he was asked to mirror in man coverage. He is unlikely to ever be a true deep safety, but if he is to stick in a box-heavy role he will need to improve his play strength. He also needs to work on his processing speed as he is still a little more reactionary than you would like.
Projection: 4th round
7. Ronnie Hickman, Ohio State (6-0, 203, rs-Junior)
Pros: Hickman is a very smooth and fluid athlete who looks great through his transitions. He was used across the secondary during his time at Ohio State with experience playing in the box, the slot, and as a free safety. He was particularly effective in coverage in his final season with the Buckeyes, allowing just 13 catches for 107 yards across his 13 games. Teams will also love the effort and tenacity he shows as both a run defender and as a tackler.
Cons: Hickman only had two years as a starter in college and you can tell that he is still developing as a processor. At this point he is more of a see-and-chase player than one who plays with anticipation and a quick trigger. That might become more of an issue in a faster paced NFL environment. Hickman is still a little lean for an NFL safety and could benefit from adding more muscle mass. He also needs to show some improvement in terms of his approach angles as a tackler.
Projection: 4th round
8. Jordan Battle, Alabama (6-1, 209, Senior)
Pros: Battle has good size, which he pairs with some fluid movement skills, allowing him to operate in single coverage against bigger slot receivers and tight ends. He is also a very experienced player, with over 3,000 snaps under his belt at Alabama. It shows on tape too and he is quick to read plays and trigger. Battle played across the secondary for Alabama and that versatility projects well to the next level. He is also a good tackler, taking good approach angles and wrapping up well in space.
Cons: The biggest worry with Battle is his average athletic profile. He is nothing special in this department and his lack of any real burst or long speed is concerning. This lack of range likely means that he will struggle to play regularly as a single-high safety at the next level. He was also very inconsistent when it came to his effort especially as a run defender. Whilst Battle has decent size, he plays smaller than you would expect and did not always look willing when asked to engage opponents.
Projection: 4th round
9. Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State (5-11, 203, rs-Senior)
Pros: During his time at Penn State, Brown showed that he is comfortable executing a wide range of responsibilities. The Nittany Lions employed him as both a single-high and split-field safety, in the slot, and in the box, and he looked comfortable at every position. His ball skills are outstanding, with 10 interceptions in two seasons as a starter. He also displays good short area quickness and is explosive when getting downhill. Teams will also love Brown’s aggressive playstyle as he is a tone-setter on defense.
Cons: Brown can play fast and loose and it will cost him at times. His tendency to gamble in coverage can result in some impressive plays, but it will also see him get burned. When operating as a free safety Brown is too easily manipulated by smart quarterbacks. This is a concern when projecting to the NFL. His approach angles are also inconsistent and cause problems for him as a tackler. As an athlete, his fluidity doesn’t match his impressive linear athleticism and that limits his effectiveness in single coverage.
Projection: 4th round
10. Brandon Joseph, Notre Dame (6-0, 202, rs-Junior)
Pros: Joseph showcases some promising production at the catch point, with 10 interceptions on his 73 career targets. A big reason for this is his football intelligence. Joseph clearly has an advanced understanding of the safety position and is very quick to read plays from deep. He also offers experience of playing as a single-high and split-field safety, as well as operating in man coverage from the slot. Joseph is a willing tackler who likes to lay big hits on opposing ball carriers.
Cons: Joseph’s effort as a tackler may be commendable, but his technique is the total opposite. He has a habit of throwing himself at opponents rather than using correct form, leading to a tonne of missed tackles on tape. He also has a thin frame which limits his ability to be an enforcer when working downhill. These issues with play strength showed up in coverage too. As an athlete, Joseph is solid across the board but doesn’t have a trump card to compensate for his lacklustre physicality.
Projection: 4th round
