2022 NFL Draft Scouting Report – Bailey Zappe

QB, Western Kentucky
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 215 lbs
Class: rs-Senior

Zappe was listed as a no-star quarterback coming out of high school and received a single scholarship offer. This came from Houston Baptist in the FCS, a program that only started in 2013. Zappe spent four seasons there as the starting quarterback, putting up some very impressive numbers in their pass-heavy offense.

He decided to transfer ahead of the 2021 season, nearly landing with Tennessee before following his offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to Western Kentucky. There he earned First Team All C-USA honours and was the conference’s MVP.

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Strengths

One of Zappe’s biggest selling points is his production. He gained four years of starting experience at Houston Baptist, before transferring to the FBS with Western Kentucky ahead of the 2021 season. He hit the ground running and showed he could translate his performances to a higher level of competition. Zappe finished the 2021 season with 5,967 passing yards and 62 touchdowns, setting FBS records in both categories. This included breaking Joe Burrow’s 2019 record of 60 touchdown passes with LSU.

In addition to his record of production, Zappe also offers NFL-level accuracy. He finished the season with an adjusted completion rate of 77.3%. This ranked third amongst all draft-eligible prospects, despite Zappe having over 150 more pass attempts than any other prospect. He is excellent working the short to intermediate areas, showing the ability to vary ball placement to maximise YAC opportunities for his receivers.

He is also one of the best quarterbacks in the class when it comes to using touch as a passer. Despite not having much in the way of arm strength, Zappe was consistently able to beat defenses downfield thanks to his ability to throw with touch and give his receivers easy opportunities. His ability to combine this with high-level lower body mechanics makes him a really solid projection to the next level.

Last but not least will be Zappe’s decision making. He is a considered passer who knows when to take risks and when to play it safe. He also showed the ability to scan the field and work through his progressions quickly and efficiently, recognising when his first read wasn’t open. His willingness to take what the defense gives him is an underrated trait, as is his recognition of when to scramble and pick up yardage with his legs.

Weaknesses

There are a number of concerns with Zappe as a prospect. Chief amongst these is his arm strength. He struggles to generate velocity on deeper passes, which limits his margin for error. This also showed up when throwing to the far hashes. Zappe also had issues with ball placement when he was forced to rush his throws and isn’t nearly as reliable when he can’t set his feet.

There will also be question marks surrounding the offense Zappe played in. Both Houston Baptist and Western Kentucky operated Air Raid offenses that employ a lot of simple concepts and screen passes. It also meant that he faced very little pressure as defenses would often counter with three man rushes. Zappe was pressured on just 12.9% of his dropbacks, by far the lowest rate of any FBS quarterback. When he was under duress he looked panicked, often dropping his eyes and seeking to escape the pocket.

Bottom Line

Zappe has the accuracy and decision making to be a high-level backup in the NFL, with the ability to serve as spot starter if required. His lack of arm strength and tendency to struggle under pressure are both concerning though and will limit his ability to develop beyond that at the next level.

Ideal role: Backup quarterback in a pass-heavy offense
Round projection: 4th round