We are almost at the midway point of the regular season and we are beginning to get a feel for the strengths and weaknesses of each team. The 2021 Draft presents some exciting opportunities, with the best quarterback and offensive tackle prospects in a generation and a long list of top quality wide receivers vying for first round status.
Predictive mock drafts don’t have a lot of value so the picks here are based on what I would do if I were the GM of each team. The draft order is based on teams’ records at the time of writing. In the event of a tie, teams are separated based on strength of schedule.
You can read more of my 2021 NFL Draft content here.
1. New York Jets – Trevor Lawrence | QB Clemson
The Jets have had a pretty torrid season so far. Winless through seven games it looks like the jobs of both Adam Gase and GM Joe Douglas could both be at risk. They seem to have given up on Sam Darnold and reports suggest they are shopping 2019 first rounder Quinnen Williams. Every cloud has a silver lining though and at least they can look forward to Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and maybe since Peyton Manning way back in 1998. He has started for Clemson since he freshman year and lost just one game in that time. He has prototypical quarterback size with elite arm talent. He’s super athletic too, with the ability to extend plays with his legs and be a threat on designed runs. Everything points to him being a can’t-miss prospect.
2. New York Giants – Penei Sewell | OT, Oregon
The Giants have struggled so far this season and find themselves at the bottom of a historically poor NFC East. Things might not be going well with Daniel Jones but he isn’t the problem. He has had no protection and has been under pressure on 44 per cent of his dropbacks. There is no better way to rectify that than with Sewell, the best tackle prospect in a generation.
Sewell has it all, with elite strength and fantastic athletic ability to be a weapon out in space in the running game or on screens. He has allowed just 15 total pressures and a single sack across his 706 career pass-blocking snaps. 2019 first rounder Andrew Thomas could move back to right tackle where he played at Alabama and Sewell would be Jones’ blindside protector.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Fields | QB, Ohio State
The Jags have lost their last six games and you get the feeling that Minshew Mania may well be coming to an end. This is a team that have holes all over their roster, particularly on defense. No position is more important than quarterback though and if they miss out on Trevor Lawrence they can get the next best thing in Justin Fields out of Ohio State.
Fields exploded on to the scene in 2019, becoming the first player in Big Ten history to throw for 40 touchdowns and have 10 rushing touchdowns. His deep ball accuracy is perhaps the best of any player in this class and he has demonstrated consistently excellent football intelligence. He runs a 4.4 40 too and will be a legitimate weapon on the ground. Pairing him with the likes of D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault would immediately elevate this offense.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Micah Parsons | LB, Penn State
The Falcons defense is an obvious area of concern. During Dan Quinn’s time as head coach they ranked 30th in EPA per play and are currently allowing an EPA per dropback of 0.3, ranked 31st in the NFL. They could do with help at every level of their defense so it makes sense to take the best defensive player in the class with this pick.
We won’t see Parsons in 2020 due to his opt-out but he has done enough to prove why he should be a top five pick. He has only 11 missed tackles on 188 career attempts and is a genuine weapon as a blitzer, with 36 pressures on 135 pass-rushing snaps. You won’t find a better athlete at the position and he could run a sub 4.4 40 at the Combine. He should improve this defense dramatically from day one.
5. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) – Ja’Marr Chase | WR, LSU
The Dolphins selected their quarterback of the future with the fifth overall pick in 2020 and they will be looking to surround him with plenty of weapons on offense. Miami’s receiving corps is lacking outside of Davante Parker and the opportunity to take an elite talent like Chase is too good to pass up.
Chase set the SEC record for receiving yards as Joe Burrow’s main weapon in LSU’s run to the National Championship last season. He led the nation in deep receptions with 24 and ranked first in Wins Above Average amongst all FBS receivers. His performances against press coverage were particularly encouraging and he is good after the catch, forcing 22 missed tackles in 2019. He’s a very well rounded player with no major weaknesses to his game.
6. Minnesota Vikings – Caleb Farley | CB, Virginia Tech
The Vikings had high hopes for this season but at the time of writing they sit 1-5 at the foot of the NFC North with any hopes of playoff football almost gone. With Kirk Cousin’s contract carrying a huge cap penalty if he were cut I can’t see them taking a quarterback in the draft. Despite substantial investment last year I think that it makes sense to consider cornerback again. This has been their major weakness this season and they need to add more quality to their secondary.
Farley was the first major prospect to opt out of the 2020 college season but showed last year that he has all of the traits to be an elite cornerback in the NFL. He has the ideal combination of size and speed for the position and allowed just 257 yards in 396 coverage snaps. His passer rating when targeted was 26.8: for context, the passer rating for throwing the ball away on every play would be 39.6.
7. Cincinnati Bengals – Gregory Rousseau | EDGE, Miami
Joe Burrow has looked impressive so far this season, but a lack of quality across the rest of the roster has limited the Bengals to just one win. Part of their problem has been an inability to generate pressure upfront, with their 15.1 per cent pressure rate ranking dead last in the NFL. Taking a player like Gregory Rousseau would help remedy this immediately.
Whilst he is undoubtedly a raw prospect from a technique perspective Rousseau put up good numbers last year. He racked 46 pressures and 16 sacks, ranking sixth in the nation in pass-rushing productivity per PFF. At 6’6″ and 250 lbs he has the size and strength to play on the edge and on the interior. With just one season playing the position he is only just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.
8. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II | CB, Alabama
Expectations around this Dallas defense weren’t particularly high entering the season but they have somehow found a way to underdeliver. They rank 29th in EPA per play allowed and are conceding an average of 35 points per game. Whilst some of these issues are a result of coaching and missed assignments, they are in need of talented players.
Surtain has been one of the best cornerbacks in college football since his freshman year and is on track for three straight years of 75+ PFF coverage grades. He is a physically imposing player who excels in press coverage on the outside. He is consistently disruptive at the catch point too, with 19 combined career interceptions and pass breakups. There are some questions about his long speed but his record shows he is worthy of a first round pick.
9. Washington Football Team – Trey Lance | QB, NDSU
It looks like Ron Rivera has already given up on Dwayne Haskins and after just 11 career starts his time in Washington may be over before it ever really began. Kyle Allen and Alex Smith are clearly not the long term solutions at quarterback and taking one here would be a good move.
Lawrence and Fields are the clear top two quarterbacks but Trey Lance isn’t far behind. The North Dakota State star threw for 28 touchdowns and no interceptions last year on the way to winning the FCS Championship. With just 371 career dropbacks his sample size is limited, but his play deserves a top ten pick. He has elite arm strength and showcased excellent decision making, with just four turnover-worthy plays in 2019. As a runner he is excellent, with 50 broken tackles on 154 career attempts, earning comparisons to Cam Newton. Lance and Ron Rivera sound like a match made in heaven.
10. Los Angeles Chargers – Alex Leatherwood | OT, Alabama
Despite a 2-4 record, Justin Herbert has exceeded expectations and has impressed for the Chargers. He has plenty of weapons at receiver, so the next step is to ensure that they protect him effectively. Sam Tevi has struggled at left tackle this season and will hit free agency in the summer. The Chargers would be wise to consider a player like Alex Leatherwood as his replacement.
Leatherwood is a solid pass protector with four years experience playing along Alabama’s offensive line. In his 1,242 pass-blocking snaps at left tackle he has allowed just two sacks and 21 total pressures. He has good athleticism and is comfortable out in space. He should be a good fit with a Chargers offense that loves to utilise its running backs in the passing game on screens and swing passes.
11. New England Patriots – Jaylen Waddle | WR, Alabama
The Patriots’ offense has looked pretty stale so far this season. Their inability to move the ball through the air has cost them and they enter November with a losing record for the first time in 17 years. History suggests they won’t consider a receiver in the first round but it is the aside from quarterback it is the obvious move right now. After missing out on the top three quarterbacks this is the best value available.
Waddle is one of the most dynamic receiving weapons in college football. He has the ability to play in the slot or on the boundary, with elite speed and after the catch ability. He has averaged 10 yards after the catch throughout his career and has had a perfect passer rating when targeted for the past two seasons. Before an injury cut short his 2020 season he was on track for 75 catches, 1,671 yards and 12 touchdowns.
12. Denver Broncos – Shaun Wade | CB, Ohio State
There are a few areas on the Broncos roster that could do with investment but I think that cornerback makes the most sense and provides the best value at this spot. They are clearly missing Chris Harris, with Bryce Callaghan their only corner with a PFF coverage grade above 60. Both Michael Ojemudia and Essang Bassey are allowing over 10 yards per reception and a passer rating when targeted of over 100.
Wade is one of the most talented corners in college football. He allowed just 261 yards on 48 targets last season, with more forced incompletions than first downs allowed. Despite having the size and speed profile to play on the boundary he has played almost exclusively in the slot prior to 2020. If he can show a similar level of performance on the outside then he would be good value here.
13. Carolina Panthers – Kyle Pitts | TE, Florida
The Panthers could also look to invest at corner but with the top three prospects off the board the value just isn’t there. One area that they do need to look at though is tight end. Ian Thomas and Chris Manhertz have combined for just 85 yards through seven games and getting a talent like Pitts to pair with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson is a no brainer.
Pitts is everything you look for in a modern tight end. He is too fast and athletic for linebackers to cover and too big and physical for cornerbacks. In 2019 he led the Gators in receiving yards and through three games this season has 274 yards and seven touchdowns. He has shown the ability to perform inline or out wide and at the time of writing is PFF’s highest graded player in all of college football.
14. Miami Dolphins – Carlos Basham | EDGE, Wake Forest
With wide receiver addressed the Dolphins could look at a variety of positions here, including safety and interior offensive line. They need a pass-rusher too though and Carlos Basham would be great value at No. 14. Emmanuel Ogbah has posted 25 pressures and six sacks so far this season and getting someone on the other side would help elevate this defense.
Basham is 6’5″ and 285 lbs but brings serious explosiveness and athleticism to the position. He ranked No. 2 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, having recorded a vertical jump of more than 36 inches and short shuttle of 4.21. Both of these numbers would have been the best for any player his size at this year’s Combine. He has been consistently productive in four years at Wake Forest, racking up 145 career pressures and 25 sacks.
15. Las Vegas Raiders – Wyatt Davis | IOL, Ohio State
The Raiders look improved this season but still have some obvious holes on their roster. Cornerback is an obvious area of need but there isn’t a tonne of value at this point and they would be better off looking at their offensive line. Neither of their guards have impressed this year and it makes sense to take Wyatt Davis at this spot.
Davis is the most well-rounded interior lineman in this class and has been excellent as a run-blocker and a pass-protector. He has great agility and is comfortable playing in space, with the strength to get physical in the trenches too. With all of the necessary tools, he should be a starter from day one in almost any offensive scheme. Davis has allowed just two combined sacks and hits in his 609 career pass-blocking snaps.
16. Detroit Lions – Kwity Paye | EDGE, Michigan
2020 is going to be a big year for the Lions. Matt Patricia may be gone by the time the draft rolls around and Matt Stafford’s days could be numbered. I don’t think it makes sense to move on from Stafford given the needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly on defense. Whoever is head coach in April will need more pass-rushing weapons and they can get that with Kwity Paye.
Paye is one of the most physically gifted prospects to come out in recent years. At 6’4″ and 271 lbs he runs a sub 4.6 40 and his 6.37 second three cone would be the second fastest time by any player in Combine history. He is a raw prospect but has all of the tools to be an elite NFL pass-rusher. He posted seven pressures and two sacks against Minnesota last week and looks like he could be in for a big 2020.
17. San Francisco 49ers – Andre Cisco | S, Syracuse
The 49ers entered the season hopeful of another playoff run and chance at the Lombardi Trophy. Thanks to an injury crisis they find themselves at the bottom of the NFC West entering Week 8. They don’t have a tonne of immediate needs but their secondary has been exposed at times this season and some reinforcement at safety would be a good move.
Cisco is one of the most divisive draft prospects in the 2021 class but you can’t argue with his production. He has thirteen career picks and a further thirteen pass breakups. He has showcased excellent range, with fluid hips and great speed. The question marks come with his consistency, having allowed eight touchdowns in his career. He is a boom-or-bust prospect but players with these ball-hawking skills don’t last long in the draft.
18. New Orleans Saints – Pat Freiermuth | TE, Penn State
This might be the year that the Saints consider a quarterback in the first round. That said, the top three are gone and I think they may give Jameis Winston a run as the starter next year. Regardless of who is under center they need investment at tight end. Jared Cook will soon turn 34 and is out of contract in the summer.
Freiermuth is maybe the most well-rounded tight end in this class and has earned comparisons to Rob Gronkowski for his physical style of play. He is a good route runner with excellent hands and has shown the ability to win inline and out wide. He is tough to bring down, averaging over six yards after the catch in his career. Top this off with his outstanding blocking ability and you’ve got an NFL-ready prospect.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Bolton | LB, Missouri
The Eagles could look to a receiver here but their defense continues to be their main issue. Linebacker is an obvious area of need at the moment, with Nathan Gerry having allowed four touchdowns and a passer rating when targeted of 146.4 through seven games.
Bolton hasn’t been receiving a tonne of first round hype, but could be set for a big rise this year. In 2019 he was named First Team All-SEC, allowing just 180 yards with two picks and eight pass breakups. He has proven he can cover effectively one-on-one in space and is no slouch in the run game either, with 79 defensive stops through his career.
20. Indianapolis Colts – Rondale Moore | WR, Purdue
The Colts are another team who could be in the market for a quarterback come the draft, although recent reports they may be looking to trade for Sam Darnold. Whether it is Rivers, Darnold, or someone else at the helm next season they need to surround them with weapons and it has been pretty clear this season that they are lacking something at receiver.
Enter Rondale Moore, perhaps the most explosive player in all of college football. We didn’t see much of him last season as a result of injuries, but he was a revelation in 2018. That year he led all receivers in in forced missed tackles and broke school records for all-purpose yards in a season (2,215) and yards in a game (313). Moore is electric with the ball in his hands and has earned comparisons to Tyreek Hill for his elite speed and elusiveness in the open field.
21. Cleveland Browns – Hamsah Nasirildeen | S, Florida State
The Browns have been a difficult team to analyse this season and have been far more erratic than their 5-2 record suggests. Baker Mayfield has struggled but their defense hasn’t been great either. Safety looks like a major need, with Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo struggling. Both have allowed three touchdowns and rank 78th and 83rd in PFF coverage grade amongst safeties.
Nasirildeen has earned comparisons to Isaiah Simmons for his size, athleticism, and versatility on defense. He has played safety, slot corner, and linebacker for the Seminoles and has posted three career picks and six pass breakups. This kind of versatility would be a great fit in a Browns defense that lacks quality at all of those positions.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore | IDL, Alabama
It’s still early in the season but Brady and the Bucs look to be living up to their preseason hype as one of the best teams in the NFC. There isn’t an obvious hole on this roster but the sensible place to look is the defensive line. If Tampa Bay want to maintain one of the best lines in the league they need to plan for Ndamukong Suh’s exit, with the 33 year old’s contract expiring in the summer. Christian Barmore from Alabama may be their best option.
Barmore has had limited exposure in Alabama’s defense, playing primarily as a third down pass-rushing specialist prior to 2020. His numbers are hard to ignore though and he has 37 pressures on 274 career pass-rushing snaps. He plays with great leverage and is surprisingly athletic for his size. If he continues to put up these numbers as a starter this season he should be the top interior lineman in this class.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams) – Samuel Cosmi | OT, Texas
The Jags secured their quarterback of the future with Justin Fields at No. 3 and with this pick they can provide him with some protection. Cam Robinson hasn’t been the most reliable of left tackles, allowing the most pressures in the NFL since 2019. With him hitting free agency next summer it makes sense to take his replacement and refresh their offensive line.
Cosmi is one of the most athletic prospects you will come across at the position, moving more like a tight end than a tackle. He has three solid years as a starter for the Longhorns and has allowed just 21 total pressures in his 835 pass-blocking snaps at left tackle. He has begun the 2020 season with a PFF pass-blocking grade of 87.6 and if he continues at this level he could supplant Alex Leatherwood as OT2 in 2021.
24. Buffalo Bills – Jevon Holland | S, Oregon
The Bills defense has regressed pretty significantly this year in coverage and pass-rush. They rank 25th in EPA allowed per play and 24th in pressure rate. Edge rusher and defensive back are the obvious options here and Jevon Holland out of Oregon should help to solidify their secondary.
Despite being listed at safety, Holland plays principally as a nickel corner for Oregon. There aren’t many players who can compete with his ball-hawking ability and he has 20 combined picks and pass breakups in his two years in college. He is super athletic and has allowed a passer rating when targeted of just 61.1. Taron Johnson will have just one year left on his contract come draft time and it makes sense to think about the future of the position.
25. Chicago Bears – Zach Wilson | QB, BYU
There aren’t many teams that find themselves at 5-2 and in dire need of a quarterback, but that is exactly the situation the Bears are in right now. Nick Foles hasn’t looked much better than Mitch Trubisky and this team is reliant on the strength of its defense. Starting again at the position makes sense and Zach Wilson would be a great option here.
Wilson has enjoyed a meteoric rise over the last few months. Considered a mid-round prospect before the season he is now getting first round hype and it is easy to see why. He is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in college football, completing 77.6 per cent of his passes. He throws with anticipation and touch, traits you want to see from a college prospect. His athleticism is impressive too, adding six rushing touchdowns to his 16 through the air so far this season.
26. Arizona Cardinals – Asante Samuel Jr. | CB, Florida State
The Cardinals have been one of the surprises of the 2020 season, sitting at 5-2 behind Seattle in the NFC West. They could still do with investment in their defense though, with edge rusher and corner their main areas to consider. I think that Asante Samuel Jr. out of Florida State could be their best bet here.
Samuel is really athletic, with excellent long speed and fluid hips. He will stick with receivers downfield and should run a sub 4.4 40 at the Combine. One of his best traits is his playmaking ability, with four career interceptions and 22 pass breakups. He has made a great start to 2020, with three picks and a passer rating allowed of just 35.1. Whilst he is a little undersized at 5’10” and 184 lbs, he has the talent to be a starting corner in the NFL.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Devonta Smith | WR, Alabama
Despite getting off to a 5-1 start the Ravens haven’t looked as dominant as they were last season. Some regression was inevitable but they are clearly missing a top talent at wide receiver. Marquise Brown has been effective but adding another talent on the boundary could take this offense to the next level.
Devonta Smith has been one of the most consistent receivers in college football over the last few years. He has excellent ball skills, with just three drops on 203 targets since 2018 and has put up good numbers in each of his seasons as a starter. At 6’1″ and 175 lbs he is undersized but if he can add some bulk to his frame he has the talent to be a No. 1 receiver in the NFL.
28. Tennessee Titans – Trey Smith | IOL, Tennessee
The Titans have looked good so far this season but could do with adding to their offensive line. Rodger Saffold is the wrong side of 30 and is on course for the lowest graded season in his career per PFF. They have the opportunity here to pick an in-state prospect and one of the most exciting interior linemen in this class.
Trey Smith is an absolute mauler at left guard for the Volunteers, with excellent power at the point of attack. His style would fit well with the Titans’ run-heavy offense, but he brings a lot as a pass-protector too. He has not allowed a sack since 2018 and has given up just fifteen total pressures in his 563 pass-blocking snaps at left guard. Medical issues have limited his playing time but he looks back to full fitness now. With a solid 2020 season he should be considered as a first round prospect.
29. New York Jets (from Seattle) – Rashod Bateman | WR, Minnesota
If the Jets can secure Trevor Lawrence with their first pick they will need to provide him with some more weapons at receiver. Jamison Crowder has been effective from the slot but they have Braxton Berrios and Chris Hogan as their starters on the outside. 2020 second-rounder Denzel Mims has shown signs of promise and getting another young talent should help set this offense up for the future.
In any other year Bateman could be one of the top two or three receivers off the board and would be great value this late in the first round. He has an explosive release and is maybe the best route runner in this class, earning comparisons to Keenan Allen. Whilst he might not be a top end athlete he has been super productive, leading the nation in yards per route run as an outside receiver. He is tough to bring down too, with 27 forced missed tackles on 120 career receptions.
30. Kansas City Chiefs – Chris Rumph | EDGE, Duke
The Chiefs don’t lack for much but they could certainly do with an elite pass-rusher. Chris Jones is their only player with a PFF pass-rushing grade above 75 and whilst Frank Clark is a solid player, they would benefit from injecting some more depth and youth into their line.
Rumph would be a great pick for them at this spot and he has been one of the most successful edge rushers in college football since 2018. He has racked up 15 sacks and 85 total pressures on 442 pass-rushing snaps, leading the nation in pass-rushing win rate in 2019. He is still a little undersized but plays beyond what you would expect for his 235 lbs, with an excellent set of pass-rushing moves.
31. Green Bay Packers – Dylan Moses | LB, Alabama
The Packers have looked really good this year and Aaron Rodgers seems back at his best. If they can re-sign David Bakhtiari and Kevin King then linebacker makes sense at this spot. Kamal Martin looks promising, but the Packers haven’t had a top quality inside linebacker for years and they could do with investing in the position.
Moses missed the 2019 season as a result of a torn ACL, but he has put together some good numbers in his time with the Crimson Tide. He is an explosive linebacker with sub 4.5 speed and has the athleticism to be excellent in all facets of the game. His tackling is amongst the best in the country, with just seven misses on 149 career attempts. He just needs to prove he can be a playmaker in coverage to be a guaranteed first round pick.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Marvin Wilson | IDL, Florida State
The Steelers are the only unbeaten team left entering Week 8. Their defense has been elite, earning comparisons to their famous Steel Curtain of the 1970s. Whilst it is tempting to consider some more depth on offense, particularly on the offensive line, a player like Marvin Wilson is too good to pass on here. Tyson Alualu will be a free agent and Wilson can serve as his replacement.
Wilson is a dominant defensive tackle for Florida State and is one of the best interior pass-rushers in this class. Prior to his injury last season he was winning on 16.5 per cent of his attempts and posted 26 pressures on 273 pass-rushing snaps. He has powerful hands and is excellent as combining his pass-rushing moves to beat offensive linemen. Taking him here could make this ‘Blitzburgh’ defense almost unstoppable.
