Over the next two months, I will be breaking down some of the top prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft. I will look the key aspects of their game and how they project to the NFL. I’m starting off with Trevor Lawrence, the unanimous No. 1 pick out of Clemson. Widely regarded as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent years, Lawrence is seen by many as a can’t-miss kind of player. Here are my thoughts on the key areas of his game.
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Ball Placement
Accuracy is obviously key to being a good quarterback and Lawrence ticks that box. He has consistently demonstrated the ability to make a variety of throws at every level of the field. Lawrence finished the 2020 season with an adjusted completion percentage of 77.3, ranked 18th amongst FBS quarterbacks. He has a good understanding of touch and is excellent at varying the velocity of his throws to help out his receivers.
This play against LSU in last year’s Championship Game is a great example of why Lawrence is so highly regarded. He makes the most of the free play after K’Lavon Chaisson (#18) jumps offside. He identifies the favourable matchup and throws the perfect pass downfield, despite a defender in his face. The ball is perfectly thrown in a way that allows only his receiver to make the play on the ball. The fact that he did all this without setting his feet makes it all the more impressive.
The other thing that you see with Lawrence is the ability to throw with anticipation. This is another trait that is important in translating college success to the NFL. Clemson’s offense doesn’t ask Lawrence to make a tonne of tight window throws, but the clip below shows that he is more than capable of making them. Lawrence’s ability to quickly identify a favourable matchup and make a throw into tight coverage is excellent. He will need to do a lot more of this in the NFL but I have no concerns about his ability to translate.
This is not to say Lawrence is perfect when it comes to his accuracy. Whilst his ball placement is very good, he does have a tendency to make the occasional wild throw. Whilst you rarely see him have issues in the short to intermediate area, some of his deep balls can go awry. This often comes down to technique. Lawrence is such a naturally talented quarterback that he can often rely on his arm bailing out his footwork. The clip below sees him force a pass without properly setting his feet. Not only does he miss his receiver, but he causes him to take a rough hit.
Arm Talent
This is another area where Lawrence excels. Like all of the best quarterbacks, he has the ability and arm strength to make every throw on the field. The fact that he understands how to vary velocity and touch depending upon the pass makes it extra special. The clip below is a prime example of this, with Lawrence throwing the perfect deep ball for a touchdown.
Arm talent isn’t just about the deep ball though. One of the things that NFL evaluators look for is how well a quarterback is able to throw to different levels of the field. One of the toughest throws for a quarterback to make is an out route to the far side of the field. The clip below shows Lawrence doing that with ease.
Athleticism/Mobility
Lawrence deserves plenty of attention for his arm talent, but his mobility is an underrated part of his game. At 6’6″ and 220 lbs he is built like a prototypical NFL quarterback, but comes with the athleticism required to succeed in the modern NFL. Throughout his college career he has racked up 1,264 yards on 199 carries. He also offers the added bonus of elusiveness as a ball carrier. Lawrence has accounted for 39 forced missed tackles throughout his career and has 18 rushing touchdowns.
This play against Notre Dame is one of the best examples of Lawrence’s ability as a runner. He does a great job of selling the fake pitch to Etienne (#9) and shows real explosive to get up to top speed quickly. He’s not a Lamar Jackson by any stretch, but on this play he shows that he has more than enough in the tank to outrun linebackers in space.
His athletic ability also comes in handy as a passer and Lawrence is comfortable extending plays with his legs. He does a great job of keeping his eyes downfield consistently and knows when to buy time for his receivers. I love this play against LSU from last year’s Championship Game. Lawrence senses the pressure from his left and is able to elude the LSU defenders long enough for his tight end to find the hole in the zone. The fact that he tops this off with a cross-body throw without setting his feet makes it all the more impressive.
Pocket Presence
Physical traits are obviously important for quarterbacks, but the mental side of the game is just as key. Having good pocket presence is what helps to separate the best from the rest as far as college quarterbacks are concerned. Lawrence has proven himself to be one of the best under pressure and is particularly impressive against the blitz.
One of the things I really like about Lawrence’s game is his ability to sense pressure and adjust accordingly. The clip below is a great example of this. Lawrence senses that the pocket is under strain and is instinctively aware of where the defenders are. He does an excellent job of keeping his eyes downfield and taking a couple steps away from pressure. This gives him the necessary time to find his receiver and make a big completion.
Decision Making
Lawrence possesses some of the best processing speed in this class. He is good at deciphering coverages and blitzes. He has benefitted from some quality receivers throughout his career, but has always been a quick decision maker who can identify favourable matchups early. This allows him to get the ball out and minimise the pressure on his offensive line. Lawrence’s average time to throw of 2.3 seconds ranked sixth amongst Power Five quarterbacks this season.
He also shows the ability to progress through his reads and take what the defense gives him. This play against Wake Forest is not the most exciting, but shows Lawrence executing a full field read, before finally settling for the checkdown to Etienne. This is the kind of thing that separates Lawrence from most of the other quarterback prospects in this class and he sees the game like an established pro.
That said, he does have a tendency to make one or two mind boggling plays per game. This is not unusual for a college prospect but it is nonetheless an area for improvement. This hasn’t always shown up in the box score, with Lawrence having just five picks this season. If you look at turnover-worthy plays though, Lawrence ranked just 47th in the FBS per PFF. These plays tended to involve Lawrence either not seeing a coverage defender, or staring down his receiver. This play against Notre Dame saw him doing both of those things and led to an interception.
Bottom Line
There is a reason that Trevor Lawrence is the unanimous top prospect in the 2021 class and one of the most coveted college quarterbacks in recent decades. His combination of arm talent, football intelligence, and athleticism make him the perfect prospect for the NFL. Whilst he does have occasional issues with deep ball placement and bad decision making, he remains the most polished prospect we have seen at the position since Andrew Luck in 2012.
