WR, Tennessee
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 210 lbs
Class: Senior
Palmer was a three-star recruit back in 2017, initially committing to play receiver at Syracuse. He later flipped his commitment to Tennessee, where he has been a four-year starter. Whilst Palmer has many of the tools you want from a wide receiver prospect, he lacked the collegiate production you would expect from an NFL prospect. This makes him an interesting player when projecting to the next level.
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Strengths
Palmer was used primarily as a vertical threat at Tennessee, with an average depth of target of 17.3 yards. Despite lacking elite deep speed, he does an excellent job of consistently stacking defensive backs downfield. He put this on display most notably against Alabama and Georgia, causing a tonne of problems for their stable of talented corners. Palmer beat Patrick Surtain downfield on a number of occasions and could have had a bunch of touchdowns in that game if it wasn’t for poor quarterback play. He tracks the ball well downfield and has the body control you look for in a receiver prospect.
Palmer combines his ability to win deep with translatable physical tools. At 6’1″ and 210 lbs he is built like a prototypical NFL boundary receiver and is comfortable dealing with press coverage. You won’t see him bullied off his routes and he translates this to dominance at the catch point. 31 per cent of Palmer’s career targets were contested catches and he was very successful in those situations. He does a great job of high pointing the ball and logged a 53 per cent win rate on contested targets over the last two seasons.
Tennessee didn’t ask Palmer to run a wide variety of routes, but he has all of the tools to be a solid route runner at the next level. His cuts are surprisingly sharp for a bigger receiver and he does a nice job of selling vertical routes before breaking them off. He was one of the biggest winners of this year’s Senior Bowl and showed that he could win in a number of different ways in the one-on-one drills. Palmer logged the second highest win rate of any receiver in attendance.
Weaknesses
The most obvious concern with Palmer is his lack of production. 2020 saw career-high numbers of just 475 yards and four touchdowns on 32 receptions. Despite being a four-year starter in Tennessee, Palmer enters the draft with just 1,514 receiving yards to his name. He also never saw more than 60 targets in a single season. In fairness to Palmer, he suffered massively as a result of poor quarterback play. Just 56.3 per cent of his 190 career targets were catchable and this had a huge impact on his ability to put up good numbers.
The other concern with Palmer will be his speed. Whilst he found success as a vertical threat in college, he lacks the long speed you ideally look for in an NFL receiver. He is excellent at stacking downfield, but you rarely see him separate from defensive backs. This extended to his production after the catch. Just 16.8 per cent of his career yards came with the ball in his hands and he averaged just 2.7 yards after the catch per reception.
Bottom Line
Palmer is an interesting prospect to evaluate. His college production leaves a lot to be desired and he never looked particularly dominant. That said, this was largely the result of poor quarterback play that never really gave him the opportunity to succeed. Palmer offers the ability to win at all three levels and has the physicality you want in an NFL receiver. There is plenty of reason to believe that his best football is still ahead of him.
Big Board Rank: #77
Positional Rank: #11
